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u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

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Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#151

Post by notahacker »

afterburner wrote: post #58
misiti3780 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ya sure, i get it .... but he took a bet and won, He could have easily lost everything. For every winner in the options game there are probably 99 losers. It's call survivorship bias.

He could have lost 50k, his initial investment, and considering he's young, and has a house, this would not represent ruin for him.

Sure. He was smart, understood investment and had 50k to spare. And at least a bit lucky. This does not apply to most people who want to be him.

Much as the narrative that this is the little guys 'crushing Wall St' sells more clicks than a lot of betting going on with plenty of Wall St winners and plenty more little guy losers, mainstream media really ought to know better. (That said, I think this particular profile is a lot more illuminating than a lot of the rubbish being written)

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#152

Post by runawaybottle »

myownpetard wrote: post #138
misiti3780 wrote: post #31

I'm honestly confused by the press around this event. I get it, /DFV started a short squeeze and got rich, that is great for him. I don't support naked shorting, it should probably be illegal (if it is not already) and it looks that was part of the reason this happened. Everyone has been suspecting for a while (especially here) that a lot of volatility in stocks like TSLA etc was due to Robinhood. As of 5:33 EST, I'm…

It's a compelling story with multiple, interesting and intertwining narratives. - An unprecedented and uncoordinated but sophisticated financial engineering play driven by an internet community. - There is a loose analogy to the terrorist attack on the Capitol, an internet community organizing to destroy existing institutions. - The ongoing class warfare that was highlighted by Occupy Wallstreet, 2008 crash and bailo…

Plus the story had somehow intertwined all these big named hedge funds, Melvin, Citadel, with real losses in the Billions (capital B), all being covered by every major news outlet and commented on by major politicians and celebrities.

Life is strange. It’s a Cinderella story if you look at it from the pure narrative perspective.

If anyone ever makes a documentary/movie about it, it should be a dark comedy - money is just depressingly funny. The things we justify and do for it.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#153

Post by tinyhouse »

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #137
tinyhouse wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're taking a couple of exceptions and deduct that fundamentals don't matter. That's like taking two people who smoke and reached 90 without cancer and assume cancer studies are fools errand.

AMD in 2015. NVDIA same period. Literally all the positions of Citron that Andrew Left missed the mark with over an order of magnitude difference. Many tech companies.

Here's a quote from your guy DFV:

"Well as a longer-term investor I have the benefit of heavily discounting daily moves. I care much more about the longer-term charts, and these have been fairly constructive for months now. Even today, after the typical quarterly sell-off, the longer-term chart still looks decent so there’s been nothing to panic over. Let’s see what the price does over the next few weeks. Of course charts are only a minor part of the equation in my opinion. The fundamentals are much more important in a situation like this."

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#154

Post by girvo »

jdminhbg wrote: post #126
shyn3 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wsb can remain irrational longer than the market can remain solvent. That was a comment by a poster which I find funny.

This is a common aphorism, attributed sometimes to Keynes: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/

Right but the WSB one is inverted.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#155

Post by wtf_is_up »

sn_master wrote: post #44
f430 wrote: post #26

What makes WSB legal vs emails about imminent pump on an unspectacular stock? What stops somebody from purchasing aged reddit accounts and then pumping up, upvoting their own threads?

Look at DFV's account. He's been talking about GME since mid-2019.

He has a very interesting youtube page under then pseudonym 'Roaring Kitty'.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#156

Post by paulpauper »

tootie wrote: post #86
yreg wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well if a stock market crash triggered by this is realistic (which I agree is), doesn't it make sense to hold a bit of GME for insurance? I understand that there's no guarantee one will be able to exit it successfully even if it flies so high that it crashes the market. However I don't see a better insurance for people who don't have access to options/inverse etfs and don't want to sell their stocks.

GME is absolutely going to crash and everyone knows it. There was a mod post just today reminding everyone to be ready. The stock is worth $10-20 on it's merits and that's where it will land. We just don't know when. The chance of this as a contagion that brings down indexes seems very unlikely.

When everyone is convinced X is going to happen, it tends to not happen, or at least not in the way it is expected by the consensus.

People said Tesla would crash when Tesla doubled a year ago from $200 to $400, and then to $900, etc., and then it did a 5-1 split, etc. Yes it did crash 20% in August, but from a price that was so high that it was still considerably higher than it was last year when the pundits were warning of a bubble.

Few foresaw the S&P 500 would surge 70% off the lows from Covid and make new highs later that year. The pundit consensus what that that it would be a bad, deep, long bear market.

Same for the post-Covid tech boom, which few foresaw too.

GME is not crashing as everyone is expected it to, even with Robinhood restricting buys. It is up huge today. I think this has a lot more to run, IMHO. More shorts will get squeezed out next week.

Like Tesla, GME may not really end badly at all and just keep going up and up.

I own some GME and not worried. Yeah, it is not that much of my total net worth, but I have found that heeding warnings of bubbles usually just means selling too soon.

If GME does crash, there will be no systemic risk or anything like that. It will be an isolated event.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#157

Post by runarberg »

gred wrote: post #133
runarberg wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would not be surprised if this is the beginning of another stock market crash. Good. Let it crash and burn. The stock market has never done anything for me. Shareholders making money out of my work is not exactly in my interests, nor is it in the interest of the majority of the world’s workers. My only wish is that this time around the stock markets will stay down after they burn, and be remembered in history as…

Honest question, do you not have a 401(k) or similar? I certainly have a vested interest in seeing a healthy, sustainable stock market over the long term. Not because I'm part of the 1%, but because my upper-middle class retirement depends on it.

idk. It seems like a savings account could do the trick. You can save a healthy retirement by putting a portion of your salaries in a savings account in your local credit union.

As a bonus—while you are not using that money—other members of your credit union can use this savings in a form of a loan, to buy a home, start a business, etc.

The idea of my retirement being at the will of some hedgefund manager is not appealing next to the idea of my retirement being used temporary to help my neighbors buying a house or start a business.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#158

Post by 015a »

amluto wrote: post #110
raziel2701 wrote: post #22

On wsb u/deepfuckingvalue showed he still holds 50,000 shares and 500 deep ITM call options. He has secured a profit of $13.8 million dollars, and his remaining open position is valued at $45 million. I would caution people to not quickly fall into the "if he's still in, I'm still in" meme. He has secured a $14 million bag, regardless if the stock goes to zero he's already secured a life changing amount of money, he…

I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if some big players have carefully arranged to have large short interest but to be hedged against large upswings. This could be an expensive position to carry, but it could be quite profitable if people thought they were squeezing an unsqueezable short.

Right. My biggest concern with these plays, at this point, is that they're not taking into account the possibility of bankruptcy. There's a ton of "they have to buy it, if we hold all the shares then it'll go to the moon, 1k, 2k, 4k". (1) The sheer variety of financial vehicles available to professional investors is staggering, and while the initial DD was really good, we probably missed something at this point, and (2) if all else fails, and a fund can't buy back the 50,000 shares it owes some brokerage, that fund doesn't have to buy them back. They can just declare bankruptcy.

I think these realizations are why much of the r/WSB discourse over the past two days has shifted from "we're going to be millionaires" to "i'm just in it at this point to stick it to the man". That's fair, and some people did legitimately become very rich off of this, but at this point, more funds are playing with WSB than against them. Funds are not some conglomerate that moves together; they hate each other as much as the public hates all of them.

Short interest in the past week has remained pretty steady. Some people view this as "the funds are doubling down, get 'em while they're bleeding". No, actually; they know what's most likely to happen, which is, everyone is going to forget about this in about three days. Gamestop's stock isn't good. These new shorts are not priced like "I think its going to go below $7"; they're priced like "I think its going to go below $200".

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#160

Post by [deleted] »

jdminhbg wrote: post #126
shyn3 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wsb can remain irrational longer than the market can remain solvent. That was a comment by a poster which I find funny.

This is a common aphorism, attributed sometimes to Keynes: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/

[deleted]
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