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Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

theguardian.com

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Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#151

Post by packetlost »

dghlsakjg wrote: post #142
sandworm101 wrote: post #51

Maybe in the UK, but not where I am. It was -26 this morning. Batteries don't handle such temperatures well. And the nearest civilian airport is 400km away. I haven't seen a single all-electric car in my town since I moved here over a year ago.

What percentage of the world's car owning population lives in a place with a restriction like that? Few enough that it would be fine to let you keep your ICE/hybrid vehicles with almost no impact on climate is my guess. If I had to guess, you live in Canada which is a country of extremes like what you mention. The solution for Canada probably isn't to prohibit ICE vehicles, but to disincentivize them heavily where th…

EVs are pretty impractical to virtually impossible for use in the vast majority of the American Midwest. With temperatures that frequently get below 0F in the winter and the huge distance between cities, I will be very surprised if EVs have anywhere close to a majority within the next 10-20 years here. Some people own them as their 'commuter' vehicle and own ICE vehicles for longer distances, but most people can't afford or don't have space to store 2 vehicles.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#152

Post by dzader »

xirbeosbwo1234 wrote: post #69
mrtnmcc wrote: post #16

Will be watching for the success of Rivian and Cybertruck to see if the rural market can accept electric.. but can't think of any good reason why not, other than pride and prejudice. (FD, I grew up in the country).

I doubt the Cybertruck will ever make it to production. Tesla enjoys building cars that kill people, what with the wheels falling off and the computer driving straight into walls, but I suspect the NHTSA will draw the line at a three-ton knife purpose-built for cutting pedestrians in half. Tesla isn't your champion. Literally every other manufacturer has a better chance. Mostly because they build cars that actually w…

lol

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#153

Post by zizee »

fiftyfifty wrote: post #129
sandworm101 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> And charging stations are, of course, absolutely dirt cheap to build relative to fuel stations. Really? A normal gas station can handle around 100 cars per hour using a handful of pumps and is refueled by daily deliveries from a big truck. Simple. An electric charge point capable of that will require a massive amount of electricity, electricity delivered over wires. Look into how much it costs to run such a servic…

This is a false dichotomy, we have to get away from thinking of charging stations like gas pumps. Charging stations can be everywhere: grocery stores, retail stores, office buildings, malls, just about any parking lot or parking garage, hotels, airport parking and on and on. Gas pumps have to have huge underground tanks, and they have to be regularly refilled by large tanker trucks, by their very nature they will be…

Excellent points. Also people seem to be forgetting a large percentage of people will be charging at home overnight, and will largely never need to charge their cars at places other than home.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#154

Post by smileysteve »

ntsplnkv2 wrote: post #138
Gibbon1 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1st, you're assuming people can charge at home - assuming they have a garage and access to power. This isn't true for a huge portion of the population. So what, figuring out how people without a designated parking space can change their car is trivial compared to trying to undo global warming. Also Covid has shown us how much disruption we can actually tolerate, hint: a lot more than the powers that be want you to…

This is a textbook strawman. > So what, figuring out how people without a designated parking space can change their car is trivial compared to trying to undo global warming. No it isn't. NYC has limited space. There simply isn't enough room for a charger for every car. That is a nontrivial problem with extreme cost. You can't just handwave it away.

NYC and San Francisco are about as strawman as it gets, because the cars AND trips per capita are some of the lowest in the U.S.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#155

Post by grecy »

mint2 wrote: post #87
sandworm101 wrote: post #51

Maybe in the UK, but not where I am. It was -26 this morning. Batteries don't handle such temperatures well. And the nearest civilian airport is 400km away. I haven't seen a single all-electric car in my town since I moved here over a year ago.

Well yes and solar isn’t a great solution for arctic areas in the winter. There’s rarely a single blanket solution that works everywhere.

Whitehorse in the Yukon has more sunny days than anywhere else in Canada.

Sure, the sun is only above the horizon for four hours a day, but during that time you get a good amount of power from your chilly panels.

When I lived up there I knew a ton of people living off-grid with solar and a battery setup. It's really common.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#156

Post by ntsplnkv2 »

smileysteve wrote: post #154
ntsplnkv2 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a textbook strawman. > So what, figuring out how people without a designated parking space can change their car is trivial compared to trying to undo global warming. No it isn't. NYC has limited space. There simply isn't enough room for a charger for every car. That is a nontrivial problem with extreme cost. You can't just handwave it away.

NYC and San Francisco are about as strawman as it gets, because the cars AND trips per capita are some of the lowest in the U.S.

Because of the infrastructure surrounding it - e.g. fleets of cars taxis, public transit, etc. In other words, better options than having an owning an EV, which, if you pay attention, is what we're talking about here.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#157

Post by tw04 »

fuoqi wrote: post #140

I wonder if electrical grids are really prepared for mass adoption of EV. For example, UK is already quite reliant on the HVDC link [0] from France. In 2016 it got damaged resulting in a reduced capacity, which has caused serious concerns at the time. And it's not only about power generation, it's also quite probable that a lot of existing power lines would have to be updated to satisfy a higher demand for electrical…

I've been trying to wrap my head around this as well. You look at the repeated rolling brown-outs that seem to happen in places like California every few years, and I wonder how throwing 10s of millions of cars that all need to charge at extremely high rates is going to be absorbed.

Sure, SOME of those people might also install things like solar panels and batteries, but I just don't see how the math works right now.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#158

Post by fortran77 »

lastofthemojito wrote: post #21
maxerickson wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$10,000 buys a pretty good used ICE vehicle. How many decent electric vehicles are selling used for that price? The lower ongoing costs of electric can justify a higher upfront price, but then you are paying more up front.

Of the ~20k used electric cars listed on cars.com, ~3k are $10k or less. Mostly Nissan Leafs and Chevy Sparks, so it depends on your definition of decent :).

A Nissan LEAF is essentially a golf cart, though.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#159

Post by cptskippy »

p1mrx wrote: post #118
ajross wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd want to see numbers for that argument, because I don't think I'm willing to buy it on assertion. A single, routine, boring 100A building drop is enough to charge 4-5 cars (i.e. "one station worth"), and those wires and infrastructure are already there, and have been for decades.

100A at 240V can charge 4-5 cars... in about 12 hours. That would be useful at a hotel or workplace, but it won't replace a gas station.

> but it won't replace a gas station.

It will replace the majority of them.

The concept non-EV owners struggle with is that with an EV you don't normally go out of your way to charge it the way you do with an ICE. If you can charge at home, at work, at the grocery store, and at restaurants then why do you need a filling station? If you start your day at 100% because you charge at home then you don't need any of the other infrastructure unless you go on a road-trip.

The amount of charging infrastructure need is also based on both demand and use case. A grocery store or restaurant might opt for DC fast chargers because they know customers won't be around for more than 30 minutes, but an office park can use 3-6kw chargers because users are there for 8 hours a day. The EVSEs are smart too so you can balance output based on demand. Have two EVs plugged in, they both get 3kw. Just one can pull 6kw.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#160

Post by anonuser123456 »

maxerickson wrote: post #18
lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

$10,000 buys a pretty good used ICE vehicle. How many decent electric vehicles are selling used for that price? The lower ongoing costs of electric can justify a higher upfront price, but then you are paying more up front.

Which just means you have a longer financing period. Capital is so cheap today it shouldn’t be a problem as long as BEV can actually show longevity.
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