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The Lab Leak Hypothesis

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Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#151

Post by RyEgswuCsn »

MrPatan wrote: post #150
RyEgswuCsn wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are thousands of wet markets in China, but very few provincial capital cities (Wuhan is one). Out of all the wet markets in China, the virus just happened to originate at the one next to the provincial administrative office? That alone is enough evidence to make the provincial administrative office the most likely origin of the virus, right?

If they handle coronaviruses in the provincial administrative office, then yes. Do they?

Maybe they do secretly handle coronaviruses in the provincial administrative office; they can't prove they don't anyways.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#153

Post by cheph »

mabbo wrote: post #27

> There is no direct evidence for these zoonotic possibilities, just as there is no direct evidence for an experimental mishap But there is so much more opportunity for the zoonotic possibilities. In fact, this is the seventh time we've seen Betacoronavirus cross from bats, through another animal, and then into humans. SARS came via palm civets. MERS came via camels. Four more types cause a mild cold only and so they…

> We (humans) had wet markets filled with animals, including the very bats that carry the base virus.

No wet markets here where I am ... so maybe speak for yourself.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#154

Post by esja »

MilnerRoute wrote: post #19

Peter Daszak, the president of the EcoHealth Alliance researching the origins of pandemics, pointed out in April that nearly 3% of the population in China's rural farming regions near wild animals already had antibodies to coronaviruses similar to SARS. "We're finding 1 to 7 million people exposed to these viruses every year in Southeast Asia; that's the pathway. It's just so obvious to all of us working in the field…

Daszak and EcoHealth have been working with Shi Zhengli for over 15 years[0]. He is not a neutral observer on this particular issue. And this year he has made a number of statements (like the one you quote) which do nothing to refute the lab leak hypothesis, and which only serve to direct attention elsewhere.

[0] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02473-4

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#155

Post by sradman »

Also see the HN thread Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it [1].

Novelist Nicholson Barker has written a beautifully worded article but it lacks critical thinking.

Lab gain-of-function experiments begin with one or more known isolates that have been sequenced. One of these sequences will match large swathes of non-functional RNA in SARS-CoV-2 if the lab is the source. This is the evidence I personally need to consider the lab hypothesis plausible. Until then, the natural spillover hypothesis fits based on Occam’s razor.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25585833

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#156

Post by DonaldFisk »

peteradio wrote: post #68
ivanhoe wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't it be way easier and more logical to start the infection on a foreign soil? All the previous similar epidemics were successfully contained before reaching Europe, and if there was not for quite serious fuck ups in the beginning (Italian dude not even showing up on the meetings, etc.) perhaps even this one could have been stopped early on. So if it was China wanting to hurt US, then they'd have to be seriousl…

Not really wanting to play devil's advocate too much longer ... but if this virus popped up in let's say Spain rather than China wouldn't we wonder how the fuck it got there, what's the vector? I'm not sure if these things can be fingerprinted, would intelligence anyway trace it to China? Perhaps (to China) a clear oops backstory is more preferable to a murky "this thing definitely came from China but how?" backstory…

> if this virus popped up in let's say Spain rather than China

It may well have:

Coronavirus traces found in March 2019 sewage sample, Spanish study shows: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-...

Sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater anticipates the occurrence of COVID-19 cases: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v...

(SARS-CoV-2 was also detected in blood samples taken in Italy in September 2019: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/03008916209747... )

> wouldn't we wonder how the fuck it got there, what's the vector?

Apparently we wouldn't.

There are two possibilities: either the virus really was circulating in Spain in March 2019, or the result is a false positive. I'm still waiting for either confirmation, or a retraction of the paper. Why the lack of curiosity?

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#157

Post by esja »

wesleywt wrote: post #119
CoffeeDregs wrote: post #13

This is a good, balanced article. I've been of a similar mind for over a year now. The chances of the CCP releasing a self-harming bioweapon in order to harm the US seems silly. But an accident involving a well-intentioned gain-of-function experiment seems quite possible and was something that the US was concerned about with its own gain-of-function research. In any case, this, like so much of this other nonsense aro…

Many people over estimate our capabilities regarding manipulation of biological systems. A gain function is extremely difficult to get right. It is more likely that zoonotic transfer occurred. Either within a wet market or people operating in that industry or a lab worker accidentally exposing him/herself. Sequence analysis show a unique mutation that increased receptor binding affinity that was not predicted by prev…

Then can you explain how this virus became (instantly) better adapted to humans than it is to bats?

https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.06199

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#158

Post by esja »

mabbo wrote: post #27

> There is no direct evidence for these zoonotic possibilities, just as there is no direct evidence for an experimental mishap But there is so much more opportunity for the zoonotic possibilities. In fact, this is the seventh time we've seen Betacoronavirus cross from bats, through another animal, and then into humans. SARS came via palm civets. MERS came via camels. Four more types cause a mild cold only and so they…

Can you explain how this virus became (instantly) better adapted to humans than it is to bats?

https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.06199

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#159

Post by esja »

scott-smith_us wrote: post #33

There isn't any direct evidence that it was leaked from a lab, but there isn't any evidence that it wasn't... Sheesh. We're in Glenn Beck territory now.

There is a large amount of circumstantial evidence that the virus was leaked from the same lab which had been involved in gain of function research on exactly these viruses (specifically to make them more infectious to humans). Direct evidence cannot be obtained, because the CCP has not allowed any access to the labs or records.

No evidence has been presented for any alternative theory, and the stories the CCP have put out have been discredited very quickly.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#160

Post by kasey_junk »

himinlomax wrote: post #138
mabbo wrote: post #27

> There is no direct evidence for these zoonotic possibilities, just as there is no direct evidence for an experimental mishap But there is so much more opportunity for the zoonotic possibilities. In fact, this is the seventh time we've seen Betacoronavirus cross from bats, through another animal, and then into humans. SARS came via palm civets. MERS came via camels. Four more types cause a mild cold only and so they…

The main point here is that the lab escape hypothesis has been hitherto dismissed out of hand when it ought not to be. I agree that the natural zoonotic contamination hypothesis is more plausible to begin with, but since it has not been confirmed (as in: no natural reservoir has been identified), the less plausible but nonetheless not implausible lab escape hypothesis should still be on the table.

The President of the United States is on record as saying it came from a lab.

I’m not sure how that translates to “dismissed out of hand”.

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