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Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

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Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#151

Post by seibelj »

tw04 wrote: post #144
seibelj wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s better - everyone who lost their jobs picks a new career and retrains doing something new that is valued by society, or the government subsidizes unvalued industries that no one wants just so people never experience any pain? I’m sympathetic that government can help those who lose jobs. My preference is straight-up cash transfers so they can pick their own schools and move to where jobs are, rather than a gove…

You keep downvoting me, but you’ve yet to explain where these jobs are coming from. The jobs Detroit lost didn’t shift, they were just lost forever. The people who held them now work minimum wage jobs or live off welfare. What are the electricians and plumbers doing instead? You can keep saying people will just retrain and do something else but that’s about as useful as Trump saying he’ll bring manufacturing jobs bac…

I’m not downvoting you - on HN you can’t downvote someone you are replying to. It’s the rest of HN that is downvoting your arguments.

Tons of jobs we have now didn’t exist 5, 10, 25 years ago. Every time a mass amount of jobs are lost when an industry collapses, they always say “this time is different!” I just fundamentally disagree with that premise. There will always be work to do and someone willing to pay for it. If that ceases to be the case it would be the first time in human history, which seems way less likely than society continuing on like it has for millennia.

You also seem to think individuals are too stupid to look at the job market, see what skills are in demand, and self-select for learning a skill that they will enjoy and get compensated a fair wage to them. Every single person who loses a job, provided they eventually get off the government dole, will have to find something new to do. Working for a while at a restaurant or warehouse isn’t something they have to do forever. There is just a distinct lack of belief in human agency in your postings.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#153

Post by samatman »

dudus wrote: post #149
seibelj wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the fallacy - The Fallacy - that is always made by those who don’t understand economics. Why did we build the car when it put all of the horse tradesmen out of business? Why do we use elevator buttons and put the doormen out of a job? Why did we create the Internet when perfectly good newspaper printers could pass information to us? You are making an age-old argument that we need to reduce productivity in ord…

There was a story once told by Eric Schmidt that while on a trip to China he was touring a bridge construction and no heavy machinery was being used, the Chinese officials were pointing it out as something positive because it meant more people worked at the site and it generated more jobs. Eric said they should have given the workers spoons if that was the goal, which caused a couple laughs that were met with anxious…

Eric Schmidt stole this story from Milton Friedman.

I'll restrain myself from any commentary on what sort of person that shows him to be, other than that implied in this sentence.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#154

Post by abakker »

sjg007 wrote: post #128
bluGill wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem is it isn't much cheaper. There is still work to do on site. Prefab needs labor in the factory. Prefab generally has higher shipping costs. These mostly balance out.

I personally think prefab is a win if it results in a faster construction time.

this is especially relevant in places with short build seasons or bad weather.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#155

Post by bleepblorp »

ThatGeoGuy wrote: post #112
seibelj wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the fallacy - The Fallacy - that is always made by those who don’t understand economics. Why did we build the car when it put all of the horse tradesmen out of business? Why do we use elevator buttons and put the doormen out of a job? Why did we create the Internet when perfectly good newspaper printers could pass information to us? You are making an age-old argument that we need to reduce productivity in ord…

I think your example isn't completely off the mark, but I do think the article itself actually answers this: there is a shortage in trade labour in the non-commercial construction sector in (North) America. We are also at a cross-roads with regards to having a housing crisis. There are many places now (Bay Area, Boulder) where housing is skyrocketing not because the value is naturally increasing, but is instead being…

The housing affordability crisis is caused by a set of polices designed to protect the equity of existing property holders by artificially constraining new housing supply and allowing a non-trivial numbers of properties to be removed from the long-term housing market by sitting unoccupied or being abused as short term rentals.

Further affordability pressure is also caused by the proceeds of corruption and organized crime being used to buy/hold housing as part of money laundering schemes. The sums of criminal money involved in the housing market are non-trivial and have been estimated to account for upwards of 5% of housing valuation in some cities.

Construction costs do not enter into this at all.

If you want to address housing affordability, only three things will make a difference: get rid of NIMBY vetoes on new construction, require all properties that are not owner-occupied to be tenanted, and severely crack down on money laundering through the real estate market.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#156

Post by solomonb »

bluGill wrote: post #32
sjg007 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? There's a shortage of carpenters so if you can go prefab it is a win. In fact the article shows that if you can build a house faster with prefab at the same cost as a traditional house that's a win.

There isn't a shortage of carpenters. There is a shortage willing to work for the wages offered. I've done carpentry work in the past, offer enough money and I'll leave my tech job. I'm not the only one who could do carpentry for the right price.

Me too. I worked for 5 years as a carpenter and at the end of the day it just wasn't worth the paycheck and the back pain.

We are starting to talk about externalized costs with regards to the environment, but this concept applies everywhere. We have a problem in this society paying the true cost of damn near everything and that includes physical labor.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#157

Post by Animats »

dudus wrote: post #149
seibelj wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the fallacy - The Fallacy - that is always made by those who don’t understand economics. Why did we build the car when it put all of the horse tradesmen out of business? Why do we use elevator buttons and put the doormen out of a job? Why did we create the Internet when perfectly good newspaper printers could pass information to us? You are making an age-old argument that we need to reduce productivity in ord…

There was a story once told by Eric Schmidt that while on a trip to China he was touring a bridge construction and no heavy machinery was being used, the Chinese officials were pointing it out as something positive because it meant more people worked at the site and it generated more jobs. Eric said they should have given the workers spoons if that was the goal, which caused a couple laughs that were met with anxious…

Large steel bridge construction involves much hand labor. Here's a big job in China.[1] If you're not seeing the foundation work or crane work, it may look like it's all hand labor. Large bridges are custom-designed prefabs. Somewhere else, there's a factory making the parts.

[1] https://youtu.be/kJ1ciG7IjKA

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#158

Post by dudus »

samatman wrote: post #153
dudus wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a story once told by Eric Schmidt that while on a trip to China he was touring a bridge construction and no heavy machinery was being used, the Chinese officials were pointing it out as something positive because it meant more people worked at the site and it generated more jobs. Eric said they should have given the workers spoons if that was the goal, which caused a couple laughs that were met with anxious…

Eric Schmidt stole this story from Milton Friedman. I'll restrain myself from any commentary on what sort of person that shows him to be, other than that implied in this sentence.

I didn't include a source because there probably isn't one. But he def told this story. I was there in person at a google off-site keynote

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#159

Post by poulsbohemian »

Real estate agent here... in my market there are a number of mid-century homes that have the very square look of a manufactured home. Even looking vaguely like a manufactured home is enough to keep people away from them. My own observations are that newer pre-fab / manufactured can be very well built. We have a lot of people coming here looking for rural retreats - truth is, if you are way off the grid, a manufactured home may be a very good option for you as it may be difficult to convince a builder to work on your custom build project if it's going to be a long commute for them.

So what I'm saying is - there's a mental block for people in accepting these houses that has noting to do with reality and everything to do with perception.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#160

Post by phobosanomaly »

dudus wrote: post #149
seibelj wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the fallacy - The Fallacy - that is always made by those who don’t understand economics. Why did we build the car when it put all of the horse tradesmen out of business? Why do we use elevator buttons and put the doormen out of a job? Why did we create the Internet when perfectly good newspaper printers could pass information to us? You are making an age-old argument that we need to reduce productivity in ord…

There was a story once told by Eric Schmidt that while on a trip to China he was touring a bridge construction and no heavy machinery was being used, the Chinese officials were pointing it out as something positive because it meant more people worked at the site and it generated more jobs. Eric said they should have given the workers spoons if that was the goal, which caused a couple laughs that were met with anxious…

If it's a government project, the employment may actually be the real goal, less so than the bridge.
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