ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly • Hacker News Board

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#151

Post by hlfy_hn » Tue, Jul 28, 2020, 11:10 PM UTC

andrepd wrote: post #39

usui wrote: post #7

I am going to need some help on this one as my knowledge on physics is limited: What makes scientists believe that the solution to nuclear fusion power is only a matter of scale? I desperately want nuclear fusion to work because nuclear power is the only realistic way to solve the looming energy crisis of the 21st century while still maintaining the same standard of living for everyone. It's also 500% more important…

I'm also a fusion power fanboy but >nuclear power is the only realistic way to solve the looming energy crisis of the 21st century while still maintaining the same standard of living for everyone This is just not true, there's no way you can say this. Solar costs are going down massively. Hydro is dirt cheap already. So renewables can absolutely be part of an energetic transition in the near future, while fusion is a…

"This is just not true, there's no way you can say this. Solar costs are going down massively. Hydro is dirt cheap already. " ROTFL. You made my day mate.

For starters: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#152

Post by Aerroon » Tue, Jul 28, 2020, 11:10 PM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #144

godelski wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the main issue and I don't want to make it any more complicated. But I do want to explain something because people hear arguments between fusion scientists. Within the field no one really doubts that ITER is going to work (there's a few, of course, but the majority don't doubt). The thing they are arguing over is if it is needed. The big reason for ITER is not to generate power but to demonstrate that sustain…

Without giving a strong opinion either way on whether this particular project is a good investment or not : Science, as an institution imo undervalues good marketing and good PR. For profit enterprises are under no illusion that they can succeed without good marketing and public perception. If large expensive projects like this are needed to increase public awareness and support for basic scientific research then I a…

I think a problem with ITER for PR isn't the cost. It's time. I learned about it and got excited more than a decade ago. It'll still take years of time for it to be finished.

I'm not really sure how to express this, but the huge amount of time just diminishes the impact of it for me.

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#153

Post by spaetzleesser » Tue, Jul 28, 2020, 11:11 PM UTC

usui wrote: post #7

I am going to need some help on this one as my knowledge on physics is limited: What makes scientists believe that the solution to nuclear fusion power is only a matter of scale? I desperately want nuclear fusion to work because nuclear power is the only realistic way to solve the looming energy crisis of the 21st century while still maintaining the same standard of living for everyone. It's also 500% more important…

"is if a laboratory experiment cannot even produce desired outcomes, "

the lab experiments delivered the desired results. The data made it possible to project how a fusion reactor can work. The same happened with nuclear bombs. They did a lot of small scale experiments until they knew what was needed to produce a function nuclear fission and later fusion bomb.

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#154

Post by godelski » Tue, Jul 28, 2020, 11:13 PM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #144

godelski wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the main issue and I don't want to make it any more complicated. But I do want to explain something because people hear arguments between fusion scientists. Within the field no one really doubts that ITER is going to work (there's a few, of course, but the majority don't doubt). The thing they are arguing over is if it is needed. The big reason for ITER is not to generate power but to demonstrate that sustain…

Without giving a strong opinion either way on whether this particular project is a good investment or not : Science, as an institution imo undervalues good marketing and good PR. For profit enterprises are under no illusion that they can succeed without good marketing and public perception. If large expensive projects like this are needed to increase public awareness and support for basic scientific research then I a…

This is why I'm particularly upset about SSC's[0] failure to be built. There are many advantages to housing the smartest scientists in the world within the borders of your country, and those benefits aren't limited to scientific output. After all, a big part of these multi-national projects is the culture war.

And let's be real, which is worth more? A super collider that runs for decades or the F35 (which cost more, but we'll pretend they are the same and that America would be the only one funding a multi-national facility)?

Fun (perspective) fact: any of the top 30 billionaires in the world could personally pay for one of these colliders.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconducting_Super_Collider

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#155

Post by godelski » Tue, Jul 28, 2020, 11:14 PM UTC

Aerroon wrote: post #152

landryraccoon wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without giving a strong opinion either way on whether this particular project is a good investment or not : Science, as an institution imo undervalues good marketing and good PR. For profit enterprises are under no illusion that they can succeed without good marketing and public perception. If large expensive projects like this are needed to increase public awareness and support for basic scientific research then I a…

I think a problem with ITER for PR isn't the cost. It's time. I learned about it and got excited more than a decade ago. It'll still take years of time for it to be finished. I'm not really sure how to express this, but the huge amount of time just diminishes the impact of it for me.

One could also argue that it would be developed faster if they had more money. It wouldn't be a linear relationship, but there is a definite relationship between the two. But fundamentally I agree. It is hard to stay excited about something to come for decades.

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#156

Post by alliao » Tue, Jul 28, 2020, 11:17 PM UTC

andrepd wrote: post #39

usui wrote: post #7

I am going to need some help on this one as my knowledge on physics is limited: What makes scientists believe that the solution to nuclear fusion power is only a matter of scale? I desperately want nuclear fusion to work because nuclear power is the only realistic way to solve the looming energy crisis of the 21st century while still maintaining the same standard of living for everyone. It's also 500% more important…

I'm also a fusion power fanboy but >nuclear power is the only realistic way to solve the looming energy crisis of the 21st century while still maintaining the same standard of living for everyone This is just not true, there's no way you can say this. Solar costs are going down massively. Hydro is dirt cheap already. So renewables can absolutely be part of an energetic transition in the near future, while fusion is a…

I am a fusion power fanboy but would hope other researches are getting some loving too... I mean what about seasonal energy storage? would be a great technology in current times where weather's getting wilder. we capture excessive heat and dump it back when it's cold etc...

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#157

Post by jtolmar » Tue, Jul 28, 2020, 11:18 PM UTC

jpdus wrote: post #105

jjoonathan wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hydro is actually pretty bad in terms of big safety incidents (Banqiao: 171000 dead, Machchu: 5000 dead, South Fork: 2208 dead) and solar/wind have trouble beating nuclear on metrics like death/watt because you need lots of infrastructure per watt. Picture a few large cities with contractors running around every roof tending to solar panels and compare to a few experts at a single nuclear power plant. For the contrac…

> Picture a few large cities with contractors running around every roof tending to solar panels and compare to a few experts at a single nuclear power plant. For the contractors-on-roofs, the slip & falls add up even though they'll never get an HBO mini-series. This is a very flawed and short-sighted argument. Averages don't matter when you are talking about fat-tailed/power law risk distributions. Nobody would be op…

What makes you think nuclear power has a power law risk distribution? For that to be true, it'd have to be possible for an unboundedly large nuclear accident..

Just because something has more concentrated risk doesn't make it fat tail. Nuclear power's winning safety record already includes Chernobyl and Fukushima.

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#158

Post by modmans2nd » Tue, Jul 28, 2020, 11:18 PM UTC

andrepd wrote: post #39

usui wrote: post #7

I am going to need some help on this one as my knowledge on physics is limited: What makes scientists believe that the solution to nuclear fusion power is only a matter of scale? I desperately want nuclear fusion to work because nuclear power is the only realistic way to solve the looming energy crisis of the 21st century while still maintaining the same standard of living for everyone. It's also 500% more important…

I'm also a fusion power fanboy but >nuclear power is the only realistic way to solve the looming energy crisis of the 21st century while still maintaining the same standard of living for everyone This is just not true, there's no way you can say this. Solar costs are going down massively. Hydro is dirt cheap already. So renewables can absolutely be part of an energetic transition in the near future, while fusion is a…

You’re fooling yourself.

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#159

Post by beachy » Tue, Jul 28, 2020, 11:18 PM UTC

toohotatopic wrote: post #72

tomtomtom777 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an odd jump you are making. Most energy isn't used just for food, shelter and some transportation, and certainly not for "bitcoin and simulations". By far most energy is used to produce things (including the transportation requirements to do so). And as it turns out, the hunger for producing and buying new things is very hard to temper. This hunger is evident from the fact that the ways we are measuring "econ…

However, will it lead to a crisis? The hunger for new things simply dies down if they are not affordable. It's already happening. Energy is much more expensive than it used to be. Resources are more expensive so that new products have tighter margins and waste less materials. People buy as much as they can. If they get less energy for their money, they buy less. Everybody had had-made clothes and ate organic food. Th…

> People buy as much as they can.

That reminds me of something I heard early on in the pandemic.

"The economy is collapsing because people are only buying the essentials".

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#160

Post by belorn » Tue, Jul 28, 2020, 11:19 PM UTC

jpdus wrote: post #105

jjoonathan wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hydro is actually pretty bad in terms of big safety incidents (Banqiao: 171000 dead, Machchu: 5000 dead, South Fork: 2208 dead) and solar/wind have trouble beating nuclear on metrics like death/watt because you need lots of infrastructure per watt. Picture a few large cities with contractors running around every roof tending to solar panels and compare to a few experts at a single nuclear power plant. For the contrac…

> Picture a few large cities with contractors running around every roof tending to solar panels and compare to a few experts at a single nuclear power plant. For the contractors-on-roofs, the slip & falls add up even though they'll never get an HBO mini-series. This is a very flawed and short-sighted argument. Averages don't matter when you are talking about fat-tailed/power law risk distributions. Nobody would be op…

Renewables are only safer and cheaper bet once the battery issue is solved and can be made equally green, safe and cheap. The primary reason why nuclear isn't commercial viable today is that combining natural gas and renewables makes for a very cheap energy grid.