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With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

economist.com

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Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#151
post #57
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A long time ago on an island far away... called Nauru, they tried to invest their wealth from their natural riches (phospor fertilizer). It didnt work out, if I remember correctly.

It's a strategy that's worked well for Norway though

Doesnt Norway still produce oil? Naurus strategy also worked well as long as they were producing. (Although I am not worried about Norway, even if the investment were not to work out as intented, their economy seems sound)

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#152

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Emir of Dubai

I recall that quote. Sadly, while prescient that quote is - he still is (has?) done nothing to mitigate its reality?

Well he died in 1990, so probably not much he can do. And it's safe to say it's not reality since he has many grandchildren in their 30s. Quotes like this seem to be more of a warning then predictive, and Dubai seems to be trying to diversify.

Meanwhile Eisenhower's warning on the military industrial complex has been ignored and seems to be coming true.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly, the first thoughts that come to mind on how to mitigate this problem fit Saudi Arabia very well (as far as I know, I am no expert). Invest in a considerable security force, try really hard to ingratiate yourself with a few powerful foreign allies that have a vested interest in your stability, and then fund education like mad, especially sending children to foreign universities, to try to raise the capa…

This is what China's elite have been doing... Their "hundred year plan" is fn' formidible and they really will be the super-power based on, not only, their implementation of it - but the lack of forethought from literally any other nation on the planet, save Norway.

Vancouver real estates begs to disagree!

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mining trucks are easily electrified. Long distance transport is the challenge.

Trains would like to have a word.

With 10s of thousands of miles of lines, it would be pretty monumental to electrify the entire US train system. Considering how efficient modern diesel trains are, That should be pretty low on our list of things to convert.

Nuclear trains might make sense with some of the newer reactors... but we know that'll never happen.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#156
Some of these countries has so much time to prepare for the future, while others were busy being railed by theocracies propped up by foreign influences in order to keep exploiting them for their oil. The later are being dropped like hot potatoes by their foreign influences and the former have taken action way, way, waaay too late.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#157
post #38

One of the things I've always wondered about when Arab countries run out of oil, and now with cheap oil, will it, at a macro level, result in lower Islamic terrorism or higher? Argument for Lower : State sponsors, and rich individual sponsors will have fewer funds. There may be local revolutions resulting in more democratic governments. Higher: There will be instability due to rising poverty with many people turning…

With all due respect, but this is overly simplistic thinking. You're implying that people in that region are somehow more predisposed to "terrorism" compared to people in other regions, and that due to instability, they will somehow turn to "terrorism" as the defacto way to support their families, putting aside their morals and ethics that prevent them from engaging in those actions to begin with. We've already seen what happened in the US at the slightest hint of instability (all the looting that took place in the past weeks, and in a bizarre manner, some by seemingly well off people as well).

Secondly, it's known that funding also comes from non-Arab countries, who have vested interest to see that region continue to be unstable, to further their own benefits.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough on all points. Electrification is the longer term existential threat. Even if 20% of vehicles are electric, the impact on demand and oil prices will be profound.

Eventually New England will also have to outlaw the use of #2 heating oil.

I know it is the southern end of New England but a friend of mine in Connecticut just switched to a pellet stove for heating his large home. He plans to pay for the stove in two winters worth of heating.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#159

It seems like the Middle East is going to get a double whammy from climate change. 1. Their economies will be affected as the world moves to non-oil based energy. 2. Their land will become more uninhabitable as time goes on. Higher temperatures, less water, more sandstorms, etc. I've seen studies that say the Middle East will be completely uninhabitable by the end of the century so we should expect mass migration fro…

80% of Dubai's food is imported, so can you label it already uninhabitable? Habitable is just a matter of how many resources you're willing to pump into making it so. With the holy sites in the middle east, it will remain populated for long to come.

You're right though, we'll see unprecedented mass migration. What's worse is the middle east has some of the highest birth rates in the world. With that excess population and constrained resources it is inevitable there will be continued conflict.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#160
post #97
post #17

I had a roommate from Saudi Arabia who said that their king have realized that a while ago and because they have basically infinite money, he started to develop small cities that have touristic potential, and people are being taught English too. In his words, they want to change this oil stereotype about their country, and that in ten years their country will be transformed.

I question how realistic it is for Saudi Arabia to turn into anything like the "tech hub" or "international finance center" or whatever of the area while simultaneously being an Islamist, conservative theocracy that is in many ways still judicially medieval. Even if they pull it off, many people will think twice about coming there. Corruption, bigotry and a close-minded view of the world needs to go first. Look at a…

What does "being an Islamist theocracy" have anything to do against becoming a tech hub or finance center? They're not mutually exclusive in any way.

> executed homosexuals

Claims like this make it hard to take these comments seriously.

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