The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

Post by pjdemers » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:44 PM UTC

Post by gridspy » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:44 PM UTC

guygurari wrote: post #127

tptacek wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We in fact know very little about the consequences of serious C19 infections in people under 50, and people in their 40s apparently make up a substantial cohort of ICU C19 patients. We also don't know the long-term health implications of a severe C19 case, and there's some evidence to suggest permanent lung damage is one possible outcome. And, even if we didn't know any of those things, avoiding the deaths of people…

We don’t know enough so let’s stop the economy while we find out? That is not typically how we do things, because it’s not a rational response. For example, we didn’t know whether holding a mobile phone close to our ear for extended periods of time leads to serious health issues, and there was suspicion that it does. But we didn’t prohibit it — we let people decide for themselves, and it does seem the risk was lower…

Post by primeradical » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:45 PM UTC

CPLX wrote: post #90

primeradical wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To anyone reading the comment above, it is extremely poor advice and should not be followed. Stay at home and shelter in place orders are not solely for the purpose of protecting ones-self from contracting the virus. They also serve to limit the spread from unsuspecting carriers. You can carry and spread the virus unknowingly and this will result in susceptible people contracting it and dying. The only way we know th…

> The only way we know that shelter in place orders worked is if they feel like an overreaction after this is all over with. That's the only way to know? You think it's reasonable to take away the civil liberties of seven million people indefinitely without at least trying to come up with a better performance metric than that? You have literally no interest in setting up any kind of plan to assess how the policy is w…

Post by siglesias » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:46 PM UTC

scott_s wrote: post #29

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

I've seen you say similar things in a few other threads, and myself and others have said, every time: the risk to everyone is that the hospitals become overwhelmed. They are not right now because of stay-at-home orders. What you think of as failure - hospitals currently low utilization - is in fact success .

Post by jshevek » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:46 PM UTC

eloisius wrote: post #85

ars wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been wondering for a while what the end game is. There seems to only be 3 options: 1: Lockdown forever. 2: Everyone becomes immune. 3: Vaccine. 1 is unrealistic. 3 will take a year. 2 the lockdown is too effective - we need at least some people to get infected, and hospitals to be utilized at a manageable rate. Is there a 4th option I did not think of? Because I can't figure out how they are going to end this. I…

This sounds like a false tricotomy (see what I did there?). Taiwan has effectively contained the outbreak with fewer than 500 cumulative cases for their very dense population of 23m. Unfortunately we can't go back and act swiftly in the beginning like they did, so we'll never approach that level of success, but we can take some lessons from what they continue to do. I was there in January and February and had my temp…