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Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

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Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're asking me,(general tax payer) to give you money to ride out the storm, but you get all the private gains in the future while I take the risk now. There is a much more fair way to do this. Firms simply issue new stock and sell it to the market. Firms get the capital they need, the general tax payer isn't holding the bag.

This is the solution. Have the firms issue stock and the government purchase the stock. Obviously make it ultra-preferred with no one else getting preference before the government gets paid. If firms don't like that deal, they can either get their own funding from the private markets or go out of business.

Why the government?

Let private businesses do it. The government can't even run the government properly, let alone something that requires more skill and is supposed to make a profit.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

QE1 did not work at all. And the Fed's 0 percent interest rates have distorted capital markets causing corporate debt to skyrocket. That alone is propping up zombie companies and this overleverage is what will make the coming recession / depression even worse than 2008. Note: the Fed is violating the Federal Reserve Act by using BlackRock as a proxy for bond purchases. So please do not tell me they are not corrupt. T…

This. The 'race to the bottom', committed globally by central banks, to get to 0% interest rates, and keep them there for the sake of keeping the markets 'up', exacerbated by top level politicians' desires/directives. If there's no cost to borrow, why not keep borrowing? And keep borrowing? And lending? Until things really unwind in a recession/depression that will de-lever everything/everyone. The moral hazard? I tr…

> And in the span of 3 weeks the US has spent $7,000 of every individual's future ($2T / 340M people).

You can’t really claim that. The reality in the progressively taxed US is the higher tax brackets pay the overwhelming majority of the total tax bill.

In reality, the payback of that $2T will fall on the top taxpayers. So it’s more like $10 for most Americans and $100000+ for the top percentiles. Bezos types will pay tens of millions.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Globalism encourages production of goods in multiple regions which are efficient at the production of a particular product. For example, globalization is why Toyota manufactures cars and car parts in 18 countries, rather than just in Japan. Under localism, Toyota would only manufacture in Japan.

> globalization is why Toyota manufactures cars and car parts in 18 countries, Definitely not. It is because of tax incentives under protectionist policies. A perfect free-market globalized world would actually see cars being manufactured in just one place for maximal efficiency.

Incorrect. A free-market globalized world (I shudder at calling such a world "perfect") would see cars manufactured at wherever gives maximal marginal gains. Which is what we've been seeing...

Resources are finite no matter how much capitalism pretends otherwise.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#154

I'd argue that's in part because of the protection racket that's partially at the heart of the moral hazard: the poor regulation of healthcare services, at least in the US. What this should be laying bare is the failure of federal regulation, how this got in the way at a critical moment, and when it was too late, things only got better when they got out of the way. Or what about a healthcare system oriented toward pr…

I agree with criticism of governments in these instances but in order to be more thoughtful we should be critical of _how_ the governments ended up in this state. In other words: I do not think that the government (as a concept) is the issue here. I think that the current (and decades past) American government is the issue. They are 100% corrupt and culpable but it is not inherent to every government.

Note: I am NOT saying you are ignoring what I've said above. I have just seen many people make poor generalizations about government because of their experience with the American government's inability to prioritize citizens over the networth of the elite.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#155

I see so much talk here on about how companies should be left to go bankrupt because of their "shitty decisions", that "the weakest companies should be allowed to fail", and "shareholders have to hold the bag" (all from comments here). This fundamentally misunderstands how businesses work. If your business has a 5% profit margin, and you're supposed to have enough savings to weather, say, six months of essentially fu…

> Capitalism is about weeding out the better companies from the worse -- not ones that are arbitrarily more or less hit by an unpredictable global catastrophe.

For the definition of better or worse implied by your above statements that is... almost entirely untrue. Given the entirety of the history of capitalism (and definition of capitalism) the only purpose of capitalism is to accumulate more capital within an existing system.

In fact we've seen many companies arbitrarily sink or swim -- and many successful business people will say as much. Otherwise there would be many more repeatable successes for businesses. Capitalism is not God.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#156
post #3

This article is no way reflects reality. There's a reason the "money printer go brrr" meme is blowing up. There is already significant outrage about the moral hazard of what's being done by the fed, and the sentiment is growing. This article reeks so badly of blantently trying to control the narrative to the advantage of the elite that it's disgusting. Rather than let companies that made shitty decisions die and let…

Who needs economic growth when we can just lower interest rates to make The Line keep going up? It's been working over the past few decades...

In a sense if we can collectively agree that the future will be better... we're all fine. We are in a crisis but there is really no reason that if the world stopped improving _today_ we would not be fine as a species. Good, even, if we redistributed wealth from hoarders.

Alas, said hoarders are the ones who make everyone else believe that The Line means more than anything else.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. The 'race to the bottom', committed globally by central banks, to get to 0% interest rates, and keep them there for the sake of keeping the markets 'up', exacerbated by top level politicians' desires/directives. If there's no cost to borrow, why not keep borrowing? And keep borrowing? And lending? Until things really unwind in a recession/depression that will de-lever everything/everyone. The moral hazard? I tr…

> And in the span of 3 weeks the US has spent $7,000 of every individual's future ($2T / 340M people). You can’t really claim that. The reality in the progressively taxed US is the higher tax brackets pay the overwhelming majority of the total tax bill. In reality, the payback of that $2T will fall on the top taxpayers. So it’s more like $10 for most Americans and $100000+ for the top percentiles. Bezos types will pa…

Do you really believe that Bezos and the top 1% will pay the bill? The rich have an army of accountants to find a way to not pay.

No, it is always the middle class (Upper- and middle-) that ends up paying the bill. Mostly through decreased standard of living.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Storage requires economic activity though. Storing frozen food requires an economy to generate electricity and maintain power lines. Storing dry goods requires electricity to process those goods into something useful or a fossil fuel supply chain or a wood cutting insustry. Also, food production requires year round economic activity. Pausing for one week would mean mass starvation even if everyone had food stores. Pe…

If the farm workers or the meat packers get corona or wildcat strike? If the braceros can’t get across the border?

If the farm workers strike, there will be others willing to work. I don't think it's worth asking if the 'braceros' can't get across the border. The American government and ICE has proven for the past 2 decades that it is completely incapable of policing the American southern border in any meaningful way.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I also never made the claim that the counterfactual of no stimulus would have been better To be fair, that wasn't the only option. There was the debate in 2007/08 about how much of the stimulus should be monetary vs handouts directly to taxpayers vs infrastructure. There's some who believe that the "infrastructure" portion was too small of the pie, hence the stomach for things like "Infrastructure Week" from Trump…

In the abstract, I liked the idea of spending it on infrastructure, but over the ensuing decade I’ve become deeply skeptical of the ability of the US government to effectively spend more money. California high speed rail and the NY subway are exhibits a and b.

CAHSR is mostly proof of a few things that America gets wrong

- heavy reliance on consultants is not a financially prudent exercise compared to building up a competent civil service, particularly since consultants want to keep the gravy train running

- sustained funding for projects is the way to build up a civil service that can push out projects; conversely, "get a ballot measure passed first and ask questions later" is a very bad model.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#160
post #13

The statement about the lack of inflation from QE and other stimulus programs from 2008 is pretty questionable. There's been little inflation as measured using usual consumer price indices, but the construction of those indices is typically fairly focused on consumer goods and underweights the assets that rich people tend to invest in (stocks, real estate, bonds, etc). The QE and stimulus programs from 2008 were sign…

Every HN thread on economics has a bunch of comments like these that are earnestly misinformed about economics. When commenting on something outside of your wheelhouse, please recall Socrates from the Apology: "I observed that even the good artisans fell into the same error as the poets; because they were good workmen they thought that they also knew all sorts of high matters, and this defect in them overshadowed the…

This is unlikely to be read given how late it is -- but one major flaw in your argument is the statement "people would invest their money elsewhere". It is very clear that the largest investors are not using "their money" but borrowed money. Ultra-cheap debt has enabled hedge funds and companies to leverage up and purchase far more stock than they could otherwise afford, massively driving up demand and pumping up equity prices to the high P/E ratios that you dismiss -- and low interest rates are the enabler.

Stock Buybacks By Corporations The Largest Share of U.S. Equity Demand

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2018/02/22/stock-...

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