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3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

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Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#151

Post by pc86 »

stupandaus wrote: post #24

A few things to note: 1. These figures are only new claims as of 3/21, so the numbers will get worse. 2. This is ~2% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 3. This is nearly 5x (!) the prior record of 671K new jobless claims from 1982, and redefines the scale for jobless claims. [1] 4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment s…

2008 took months to unravel because of the nature of the crisis. Foreclosure is a process and in some areas can take up to 6 months or more from the time you stop paying your mortgage.

Here we had state governments practically shutting down their economies overnight. Overnight, every restaurant in my state was no longer allowed to have dine in. Only maybe half in my local area stayed open for carryout, and at least 80% of those have closed in the few weeks since.

The speed at which this happened is astronomical, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be multiple times worse than 2008. Just that the onset was very quick.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#152

Post by KoftaBob »

Isn't it meaningful that the cause of this particular unemployment is very unique, in that it wasn't caused by a weak economy, but by the government artificially closing the businesses temporarily?

Theoretically, once everything starts to open back up, won't there be a similarly sized surge in "new jobs" so to speak?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#153

Post by [deleted] »

SamuelAdams wrote: post #74
rubber_duck wrote: post #35

And this is just the start. While I think the US response to Corona was slower than the response in my country I feel the US is the only country that's seriously discussing economic repercussions and debating the medical experts. In EU (at least in my country) it's doctors running things and we are in "stop the pandemic at all cost". Everyone is in panic due to Italy situation. But doctors are only trained to see the…

I saw this idea floated around on Reddit a few days ago. Basically the crux is that unemployment has a death toll, too. So if you close all non-essential businesses, unemployment rises, which increases the likelihood of people losing health insurance, losing homes, not paying electrical bills, communication (internet / phone) bills, etc. If some people lose all those things and don't have access to them again for 2+…

[deleted]

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#154

Post by wmeredith »

Kaze404 wrote: post #63
cjslep wrote: post #32

I grew up with the puritanical mindset of: "Your intrinsic worth as a human is the money you earn; because the money you earn is from how hard you work; and how hard you work is a reflection of your intrinsic Virtue." Thus I grew up in a family that loathes the unemployed. I really hope -- though I have grave doubts -- that this event gets through to them, so that they can have some personal growth, too.

That is the saddest thing I've ever read on this site. I know there's people who believe that but it's still shocking to me.

"Wealth is the product of man's capacity to think." -Ayn Rand

I was also raised in a family like this.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#156

Post by lordnacho »

wmeredith wrote: post #147
lordnacho wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's a fair discussion to take, but how are you going to run an economy with the health service in permanent overload? That is what would happen if you just let the thing pass. Those charts of "squashing the sombrero" have the number of beds at a very low place compared to the expected hump of cases. On some of them you can barely even see the gap between the red line and the zero line, due to the scale of th…

> in permanent overload It won't be permanent. It will be like a forest fire and kill a lot of people and be horrible, but will eventually die down due to heard immunity.

Ok not permanent as in years and years. But long enough that it's towards the end of the year before there's capacity.

You don't want people dying needlessly for half a year.

And while the overload is on, the economy will be affected, whatever the response is.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#157

Post by wil421 »

alharith wrote: post #82
duxup wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference. Yeah I've been doing a fair amount of takeout and places where you had dozens of people ... operating with two or three people now.

My brother is a restaurant owner and reports that despite volume being down, profit is up due to less overhead. Others in the restaurant industry are reporting the same. When we come out on the other side of this, I think a lot of businesses are going to rethink a lot of things they held on to as infallible truths. Sorry as many mentioned, yes the key ingredient is takeout: This is a fast casual italian / pizza resta…

Almost every restaurant owner I know is about to fold or taking emergency loans. From people with several franchised sandwich shops to stand alone restaurants.

Who is reporting profits are up?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#158

Post by spritecranberry »

minikites wrote: post #132
lonelappde wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rare catastrophes are hard to prepare for, because the cost of preparation is expensive. "Routinely happening" once a century or two isn't an easy target.

It's a perfectly achievable target, we just have one political party that prioritizes private corporate profits and the interests of very wealthy citizens above all other societal needs.

Really, your solution to this is "Republicans bad"? The Democrats are far from perfect. I'm not happier than the next guy about the bail-outs of companies, but you're saying it's okay to dispense colossal hand-outs to everyone? The government cannot solve this problem. It's not the government's job. Bad things happen; go back to life.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#159

Post by minikites »

big_chungus wrote: post #149
minikites wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"My goal is to cut government in half in twenty-five years, to get it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub."

How is shrinking the government to blame? It's expanded colossal ever since the new deal. Grover Norquist, the guy you're quoting, is not an elected official. He was just saying what he believes. That's pretty weak evidence for "the problem". The only nation that ended up containing it was China, because being able to tightly control what your population does is one of the perks of authoritarianism. That said, it doe…

How is shrinking the government to blame for an inadequate government response? It seems self-evident to me, perhaps I'm missing something.

Also, South Korea did a great job containing the virus, so authoritarianism isn't a prerequisite to addressing this crisis.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#160

Post by toomuchtodo »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #150
toomuchtodo wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine those less at risk will eventually give up on confinement and continue on with their lives, forcing those at risk (risk factors, 60+, immunocompromised) to remain confined voluntarily or risk a greater chance of death by venturing out. Those not at risk (younger and healthier) will be prioritized for triage and ventilator access if they do get sick. You can't expect people to shelter in place indefinitely,…

I think the next couple of weeks are going to be eye opening - we're going to get a lot of reports of deaths, even of the young and healthy, which we're already seeing. That should steel the collective resolve to last a while here. People are talking of lifting the restrictions and our collective endurance and things have barely gotten going. It's really complaining about the length of the red light when it's just tu…

> Naturally people aren't going hole up for a year, but we have to stop acting antsy when we've been in our houses a week or two.

It's natural to be antsy if you've lost your job, have no social safety net, and can't pay for food or your rent.

Either pay them to stay home, or don't be surprised when they leave to attempt to make a living to survive. They're already at risk of being homeless and destitute, so COVID matters much less to them. And I don't blame them.

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