I’m buying S&P index every day at this point, trying to drive my average down without trying to find the bottom. ...with that being said, I feel really worried about American economic stability long term now. Governors are closing restaurants and businesses leaving tons of folks out of work while providing minimal safety net coverage. Even liberal states like New York are ignoring the downstream economic effects thes…
If you're going to keep putting money in, you might want to diversify rather than throwing it all at one index
I’m buying S&P index every day at this point, trying to drive my average down without trying to find the bottom. ...with that being said, I feel really worried about American economic stability long term now. Governors are closing restaurants and businesses leaving tons of folks out of work while providing minimal safety net coverage. Even liberal states like New York are ignoring the downstream economic effects thes…
Every time I see this, I fail to grasp the logic. So you had money sitting on the sidelines for safety during boom times, and you elect to put it in a riskier asset class during a panic? I'm not saying this isn't likely the most profitable action, I just don't see how the principles are consistent with each other. The former is conservative; the latter is wildly speculative and risky.
You're forgetting the fundamental rule of the stock market.
To put it into perspective, the last time the market behaved like (multiple drops of this magnitude) this was 90 years ago, in 1929, and it was at the start of the Great Depression. Today was the second largest percentage drop for US Markets in history. Now is not a good time to sell your stock holdings (at least not anymore). This smells of a panic right now. I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this…
Two points. 1. Today's drop is sort of misleading because it followed an irrational (IMO) low volume rally on Friday. We're still roughly flat from last week. 2. A recession is pretty much what we're ASKING for in order to stop the virus. People need to stay away from one another. So if it's not online, the business should be closed. 3. (bonus point) Unlike systemic recessions (like 2008), this one is purely external…
> the exception being for companies that is going to go bankrupt
This is not a small issue. If businesses are closed for two or three months, I believe half of the businesses in this country will be close to bankruptcy.
I hope you're not saying that measures which actually achieve more social distancing is somehow theater.
If our response has been commensurate with the threat or an overreaction is definitely an open question. One we probably won't be able to answer definitively for a while.
I saw one really good comment - we'll know for sure if we under reacted, but we'll never know if we overreacted
To put it into perspective, the last time the market behaved like (multiple drops of this magnitude) this was 90 years ago, in 1929, and it was at the start of the Great Depression. Today was the second largest percentage drop for US Markets in history. Now is not a good time to sell your stock holdings (at least not anymore). This smells of a panic right now. I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this…
Two points. 1. Today's drop is sort of misleading because it followed an irrational (IMO) low volume rally on Friday. We're still roughly flat from last week. 2. A recession is pretty much what we're ASKING for in order to stop the virus. People need to stay away from one another. So if it's not online, the business should be closed. 3. (bonus point) Unlike systemic recessions (like 2008), this one is purely external…
You are assuming that COVID will go away and not become a yearly thing. Also assuming that this type of shutdown won’t become the new normal in response to a virus. ( something that happens every 4 or 5 years )
I too am hopeful, but I think there is 10-15% chance of massive long term economic downside
To put it into perspective, the last time the market behaved like (multiple drops of this magnitude) this was 90 years ago, in 1929, and it was at the start of the Great Depression. Today was the second largest percentage drop for US Markets in history. Now is not a good time to sell your stock holdings (at least not anymore). This smells of a panic right now. I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this…
Maybe, but why don't you think the markets will bounce back once we're on the other side of this? Have underlying fundamentals changed longer term? South Korea, China, Singapore are encouraging and seeing a return back to (almost) normal life. Granted, we're not dealing with this nearly as effectively and there may be a 2nd wave to come. But at this point they seem to make the case for optimism.
A lot of ventures that were hanging on by threads will be ruined by this, so the pandemic is likely to clear out a lot of the weaker businesses as any good recession or crash is apt to. It will take a while for the marker to grow around that loss (though good in the long term, there is pain in the short). It could also trigger a housing correction, which has ripple effects on the construction industry, and those people are no longer eating at restaurants, and so on. Think of busts being inevitable anyways, and a crisis is merely the way into one.
Two points. 1. Today's drop is sort of misleading because it followed an irrational (IMO) low volume rally on Friday. We're still roughly flat from last week. 2. A recession is pretty much what we're ASKING for in order to stop the virus. People need to stay away from one another. So if it's not online, the business should be closed. 3. (bonus point) Unlike systemic recessions (like 2008), this one is purely external…
>...this one is purely externally driven (like 2001) - which means it's temporary. This can't be stressed enough. It may take a while but everything is going to be alright and normal again.
I don’t get this. If a meteor hits the earth and wipes out 25% of the population, that would be external. But there’s absolutely no reason to believe the significant reduction in economic activity and wealth would be temporary.
Why catch a falling knife? I am actively shorting S&P to protect my other holdings. SPY is the largest ETF is now hard to borrow which is just crazy to think about.
While you're not outright advocating a trading strategy here, what you're suggesting is dangerous if you're not talking about the downsides to shorting. Do not, I repeat, do not attempt a short without understanding all the risks. When you buy a stock for $10, the most you can lose when that stock goes to zero is $10. In theory, when you short a stock at $10, your loss is infinite as the stock goes up higher and high…
To put it into perspective, the last time the market behaved like (multiple drops of this magnitude) this was 90 years ago, in 1929, and it was at the start of the Great Depression. Today was the second largest percentage drop for US Markets in history. Now is not a good time to sell your stock holdings (at least not anymore). This smells of a panic right now. I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this…
No one knows. You have the entire world working (mostly together) on ending this. I'm optimistic things will get much better in a month or so.
If one assumes that the market was a powder keg waiting for a spark to explode, it doesn’t matter when the virus part of the equation clears up