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Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

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Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#151
post #110
post #51

For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. It owns close to 80% of the Japanese ETF market currently, with no end to the expansion of balance sheet in sight. After buying long treasuries, it's not unreasonable to imagine the Fed buying stocks, either individual issues or ETFs. The President would be for it, and it would be hard to drum up any opposition to it in cong…

> For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. Oh you mean the economy that has been stagnate for 20 years?

That's probably much more to do with their population pyramid than their monetary policy...they are a rapidly aging, insular society. If your working age population is decreasing, it's going to be nearly impossible to grow your economic output, especially when you turn away all immigrants.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#152
post #82
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only because the toolset is artificially restricted for ideological reasons. Fiscal responses (having the government spend actual money, either on things like infrastructure it by just handing it out to the population, which will then largely spend that money as they see fit) rather than monetary policy responses (reduce rates and hope that people will borrow more) are known to work well in most cases. The Corona vir…

Keynes famously said you could hire people to dig ditches and it would stimulate the economy. However, if we were to take aggressive action on Climate Change, there’s a lot of potential jobs there. A massive potential stimulus. Also, you know, public funding of basic research which could explore, I don’t know, pandemic response, new therapeutics, etc. Like you said, ideological barriers are what’s keeping us stuck. B…

I mean half of the economy is digging ditches basically. A few small portions of the economy produce the necessities of life while nearly everyone else just circulates money around through entertainment, advertisement, etc.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#153

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

> fiscal policy can't really affect the real economy Fiscal policy ( e.g. the government buying tanks) absolutely affects the real economy. The central bank doesn't control fiscal policy. It controls monetary policy. Monetary policy also affects the real economy, just indirectly.

Monetary policy is about increasing or decreasing the money supply. The argument is that it cannot have long-term real effects because if it did we would all be incredibly rich, since it costs nothing to increase the money supply by whatever amount. Every underdeveloped nation would simply increase their money supply and poverty would be a thing of the past.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#154
post #110
post #51

For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. It owns close to 80% of the Japanese ETF market currently, with no end to the expansion of balance sheet in sight. After buying long treasuries, it's not unreasonable to imagine the Fed buying stocks, either individual issues or ETFs. The President would be for it, and it would be hard to drum up any opposition to it in cong…

> For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. Oh you mean the economy that has been stagnate for 20 years?

Stagnant or not the real question is what would have happened if the bank wasn't holding all those stocks? That is did buying all those stocks/ETFs successfully prop up the economy that would have otherwise gone into a recession or worse or did it cause the stagnation?

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#155
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty worried about this. I don't think this rate cut makes any sense. You can't stimulus away a virus.

There seem to be economic ways to help curtail it though. - sick pay for hourly employees for next year - backstop airlines, event planning and travel businesses in some capacity - offer Netflix rewards for vaccines, testing methods or other applicable things - cover cost of insurance for massive testing

If done well, that would prove that Medicare4All works. Cannot have that happen.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#156
post #97

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

" ... I'm still slightly bearish on the whole situation due to the combination of the virus' absurdly high infection rate[0] and its ridiculous ~25-30 day incubation period ..." You're right to highlight those aspects of the virus and I find them noteworthy as well. However, the statistics I am most interested in is mortality rate and rate of asymptomatic infections. I note with interest that among the 700+ infected…

> among the 700+ infected on the cruise ship, there were 6 deaths

Your death count is incorrect. Several deaths occurred after cruise members returned to their home country, and are currently counted as deaths in their home country instead of the cruise ship.

Take for example: 78-year-old man in Perth - got infected on the cruise ship - but counted as a death in Australia.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#158

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

I think they need emergency stimulus.

Cutting rates further isn’t going to protect businesses without footfall from going under - they need propped up on a wide scale until the virus peaks and passes.

Theoretically a cut to zero might help but only if you’re giving guaranteed credit lines to every small business to get them through the worst of it - but how would that even work?

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've edited the post accordingly, it was a brain fart moment... But thanks for your sincere feedback

I'm 100% understanding of brain farts. It's just that to do so on something as fundamental and basic as monetary versus fiscal policy, to me feels like, a mistake a non-layman wouldn't make. It's not like you can chalk it up to an issue with similar spelling either. 'Monetary' and 'fiscal' are written completely differently.

My grandmother occasionally calls her children by each others' names. She's done it her entire life. She even mixes up her son's name and her daughters'. What she named her children is "fundamental and basic", too, and she's certainly an expert in how they're named. Heck, they're not even spelled similarly.

Please help keep HN a nicer place by giving others the benefit of the doubt.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#160
post #110
post #51

For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. It owns close to 80% of the Japanese ETF market currently, with no end to the expansion of balance sheet in sight. After buying long treasuries, it's not unreasonable to imagine the Fed buying stocks, either individual issues or ETFs. The President would be for it, and it would be hard to drum up any opposition to it in cong…

> For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. Oh you mean the economy that has been stagnate for 20 years?

GDP per capita doesn't look stagnant: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita
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