Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#151

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 11:51 PM UTC

slg wrote: post #118

fred_is_fred wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious how you see Tesla as "vertically integrated energy" company. You mean Tesla is going to run power plants and transmission lines? Both are highly regulated, including the price you can charge, with a very low profit margin in most cases, not sure Musk would be a fan.

Tesla's products allow for decentralized power. A Tesla solar panel feeds into a Tesla battery which powers your Tesla car and the rest of your house. That all works without Tesla building power plants or transmission lines.

Solar is generally moving away from decentralized consumer Solar to more industrial levels given the decreased maintenance burden. Why do we believe Tesla is on the right side of this?

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#152

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 11:52 PM UTC

xedeon wrote: post #142

justapassenger wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla solar panel It's actually Panasonic solar panel + SolarEdge inverter, that Tesla puts their sticker on. Tesla is just an installer of third party products, like majority of all other solar companies. That can possibly change with solar roof, but it's very early stage.

Solar Roof Deployments have started a few weeks ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRPy8UZv9V0

And the product was announced 3.5 years ago and has been thorough 3 iterations. I’ll hold my breath this time too.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#153

Post by trhway » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 11:53 PM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #144

40acres wrote: post #109

The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market…

Tesla still lost $800 million this year and has never had a profitable year, on both record car sales and record regulatory credit sales. What about that indicates sustainability?

$800M loss on $25B sales (which are growing YoY while R&D actually resulting in new models and features is maintained stable) is a noise at this point.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#154

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 11:55 PM UTC

csomar wrote: post #66

slg wrote: post #25

I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.

People shorted the stock expecting the company and Elon will go under. They didn't go under and this Q4 despite not being spectacular in any number is "beating the market expectations" because the market expected the company not to continue operations.

No? The market expectations were a EPS if 1.76 this quarter. Tesla best that, but acting like the market expected them to go under is ridiculous. At the beginning of 2019, the Wall Street consensus was a profit of close to $400 million for the year. They lost $800 million.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#155

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 11:56 PM UTC

heisenbergs wrote: post #96

slg wrote: post #25

I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.

simple back of the envelope calculation: in 3 years time, they will have 3 giga factories (+1 in upstate new york), each of which should be scale to 500k cars. at an average resale price of $50k (might be a little lower, but let's keep it simple), that's $75B in revenue. at a 10% profit margin, that's $7.5B profit. let's presume a 20x factor as a growth stock, you have an evaluation of $150B, which it's currently tre…

Why do you assume they can sell all those cars, when they can’t even sell all their current capacity of cars? They’ve been able to produce 500,000 cars for awhile, yet only delivering 367,000 this year.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#156

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 11:58 PM UTC

runawaybottle wrote: post #30

slg wrote: post #25

I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.

Short squeeze I think.

There still is billions of dollars short this company. Not that much has changed

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#157

Post by neosat » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 12:00 AM UTC

trhway wrote: post #153

xkjkls wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla still lost $800 million this year and has never had a profitable year, on both record car sales and record regulatory credit sales. What about that indicates sustainability?

$800M loss on $25B sales (which are growing YoY while R&D actually resulting in new models and features is maintained stable) is a noise at this point.

Agree. Given the growth numbers and their market leadership in the EV area, there's a strong case to be made that this 'loss' is more of an 'investment' to set up for future revenue growth and consequently profits that come with increasing maturity and operational cost reductions.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#158

Post by xkjkls » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 12:01 AM UTC

trhway wrote: post #153

xkjkls wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla still lost $800 million this year and has never had a profitable year, on both record car sales and record regulatory credit sales. What about that indicates sustainability?

$800M loss on $25B sales (which are growing YoY while R&D actually resulting in new models and features is maintained stable) is a noise at this point.

R&D isn’t even meeting depreciation though. Either these factories are some how never before seen in accounting history or this company is underinvesting in its futures

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#159

Post by tedunangst » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 12:02 AM UTC

xedeon wrote: post #140

justapassenger wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's non-GAAP profit, which is not very useful metrics. GAAP they lost over $800M last year.

Way to move the goalpost.

Non GAAP accounting is literally the definition of moving the goalpost.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#160

Post by xkjkls » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 12:03 AM UTC

neosat wrote: post #157

trhway wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$800M loss on $25B sales (which are growing YoY while R&D actually resulting in new models and features is maintained stable) is a noise at this point.

Agree. Given the growth numbers and their market leadership in the EV area, there's a strong case to be made that this 'loss' is more of an 'investment' to set up for future revenue growth and consequently profits that come with increasing maturity and operational cost reductions.

They have shrunk in sales YoY in the US and Norway, their two largest markets. They managed to grow globally by finding the most advantageous subsidies for them to take advantage of. However, even that only gave them 1% growth of the past year.