Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast • Hacker News Board

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#151

Post by MauranKilom » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 7:09 PM UTC

asokoloski wrote: post #42

drharby wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Act how? I'm being pragmatica here. How and to what end is this statement and the aggregation of headlines on hacker news hoping to persuade the hn reader? Donate all money to causes? Starve ourselves to death? Go retreat from our lives to invest in reforestation efforts, managing beehives, and growing pesticide free sustenance farms while microcurating our own little corner of the Earth? Or is it simply to strike un…

To anyone reading who wants to know what they can personally do--in rough order of decreasing impact: https://citizensclimatelobby.org/ is doing really good work. They focus on a very non-adversarial approach, and are changing the minds of a lot of congresspeople about vital climate legislation. It's a very effective approach. Joining up with your local chapter and volunteering is a great way to spend your time and e…

The whole vegan thing was put into perspective for me when I learned that one intercontinental flight (roundtrip) a year has roughly the same CO2 footprint as going from vegan to "normal" meat consumption.

I'm still trying to be conscious about meat consumption (and will gladly adopt lab-grown meat) but that impact pales in comparison to avoiding plane trips.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#152

Post by kaybe » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 7:16 PM UTC

cr0sh wrote: post #92

A somewhat flippant comment, but I'm involved tangentially with the "cyberpunk" aesthetic; often, people involved ask "where is our cyberpunk?" All I can tell them is "Yes, we got our cyberpunk - unfortunately, we didn't get the Diamond Age, or even Neuromancer - we instead got David Brin's Earth..." As far as why methane levels are rising so fast - I suspect it has to do with the thawing of arctic permafrost (ever s…

Y'know, it's not binary, the divide is not climate change/no climate change. So maybe it is too late to stop everything completely, but it is really really not too late to stop it from becoming far far worse.

Look at this plot:

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/01/figu...

You can see where we are and what else is possible if we keep going. (Let's hope we don't trigger feedback effects which are not included in the plot though.)

Here are possible paths forward to stay below 1.5°C:

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/SPM3...

And yes, they are hella optimistic, but they are (physically) possible. Let's at least give our best and fight!

(Details and plot captions in the full IPCC report: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/)

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#153

Post by pkaye » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 7:17 PM UTC

GVIrish wrote: post #144

pkaye wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ICE vehicle bans don't seem realistic. If they set a goal like 10% sales first year, 20% next year etc, then I can understand a goal for a total ban in 10 years. Sometimes politicians set unrealistic goal expecting they won't be involved by the time the deadline reaches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...

What we're starting to see is that enough major global markets have committed to banning combustion engines in cars in the next 10-20 years, that it will make economic sense for global auto manufacturers to focus their product development on alternative fuel vehicles. Mercedes just announced that they will cease development of combustion engines to focus on EV's. VW Audi Group just said that this is their last genera…

I do like these goals though because even if Trump stripped California of some of its powers to regulate cars, ultimately the car manufacturers still are forced develop this technology to stay relevant in the world marketplace. If Ford and GM stay with ICE engines too long they will become obsolete.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#154

Post by TeMPOraL » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 7:26 PM UTC

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #34

drharby wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Act how? I'm being pragmatica here. How and to what end is this statement and the aggregation of headlines on hacker news hoping to persuade the hn reader? Donate all money to causes? Starve ourselves to death? Go retreat from our lives to invest in reforestation efforts, managing beehives, and growing pesticide free sustenance farms while microcurating our own little corner of the Earth? Or is it simply to strike un…

The "something" to be done is very simple: 1) End fossil fuel subsidies 2) Apply or increase taxes on emissions 3) Invest the money from 1 and 2 heavily in nuclear, renewables and CO2 capture and storage for industries that can't just switch to clean electricity, negative emissions and "mild geoengineering" solutions. Unfortunately, this is bad news for lots of existing multinational companies, and for lots of rich p…

Also for jobs. A big issue in my country is the vocal subpopulation employed in coal mining, and the larger population believing that our coal industry is somehow nationally strategic; both of which will vote against anyone with any sensible climate strategy. I took a look the programs of our parties during last EU MEP elections, and sound treatment of climate issue is essentially inversely correlated with popularity of the party.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#155

Post by TeMPOraL » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 7:31 PM UTC

watertom wrote: post #37

The only way forward, the only chance we have is to invent technology to trap and sequester green houses gases from the upper atmosphere. Reducing human greenhouse gas output won’t happen fast enough to fix things, and I’m not sure that it’s possible to capture and trap existing green house gases, but it’s the only chance we have, because it’s the only way to stop the positive feedback loops that are currently runnin…

We need both, in so far that slowing the warming buys us time to invent new technologies, and move economies towards negative emissions without breaking it or (if I'm to believe api's speculations elsewhere in the thread[0], and I am willing to) starting World War Three.

--

[0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21026975

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#156

Post by TeMPOraL » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 7:35 PM UTC

darksaints wrote: post #58

smakk wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know if there are any current technologies to trap and sequester green house gases ?

Trees mostly. Algae has huge potential due to high growth rates. Mechanical or chemical sequestration is unlikely to do anything.

Some form of sequestration is necessary, because if you consider climate as a sinking ship, trees and algae are just sponges. They sequester some carbon for a while, and then release when decaying or burning. So fighting climate change with trees needs to involve cutting them down and storing them somewhere where they won't decay for thousands of years.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#157

Post by pdonis » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 7:48 PM UTC

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #120

pdonis wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No link to a peer-reviewed paper, let alone any explanation of where this "new data" came from or why we should consider it reliable.

It's all in the PDF they helpfully link at the very top of the page, along with references. They also link the 2013 report that it is an update to.

The PDF does not explain where the data comes from or how it was counted. And it explicitly says that the data is not peer-reviewed. At least it does give references at the end.

Also, Fig. 1 in the PDF shows "geophysical events"--earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions--rising in frequency as well. By the argument given, that means we humans are causing more earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions by putting more CO2 into the air. Which immediately makes me read this PDF as spin, not substance.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#158

Post by xyzzyz » Sat, Sep 21, 2019, 1:24 AM UTC

jonnycomputer wrote: post #123

xyzzyz wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mature forests are at best net carbon neutral, and at worst net carbon emitters. Comparing our current emissions with amount sequestered per hectare of forest immediately gives that we don’t have nearly enough suitable unused land to plant new forests to make up for our current emissions. The only viable way to use forests to sequester carbon is to cut down immense numbers of trees and bury them underground. I don’t…

Actually, I wonder if that is true. https://today.oregonstate.edu/archives/2008/sep/old-growth-f... I'm sure tree-farmers would sale their trees to governments interested in sequestering carbon. Probably could just dump them in the oceanic trenches...

Clearly, if government is going to buy the lumber at market prices, the owners of the forests won’t complain or ask the purpose. However, the rest of us who would pay for the scheme would see the idea of burying the trees in order to offset the carbon we keep digging up as quite ridiculous.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#159

Post by simonh » Sat, Sep 21, 2019, 7:55 AM UTC

Jeff_Brown wrote: post #129

simonh wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow. That’s not going to cause massive, crippling hyper inflation at all, is it.

Inflation comes from an increase in the money supply. If we printed the money for it, it would cause inflation, but he plans to tax it. But even if we printed it, it would by no stretch of the imagination cause hyperinflation, just inflation. The M2 money supply -- still an incomplete measure, as there are lots of kinds of money -- in the US is 14 trillion and change, per Investopedia[1]. 12K per year * 350M people i…

The economy isn't an undifferentiated lump of money, stuff and people. It is a complex structure. If most people have a lot more money, they will be able to afford a lot more of the stuff most people buy most of the time. So the inflation will be concentrated in staples and consumer goods simply due to greater demand versus supply.

If prices stayed as is, it's hard to see why anyone would do a lot of the low paid to medium income jobs many people currently do. But those jobs would still need to be done, which would drive up wages, but where is the money for the increased wages going to come from? Well, businesses would have to charge more. That's inflation again.

These effects would still happen, but might be mitigated by easing in a policy like this over time.

I'm not convinced about taxing it to make it fiscally neutral. A wealth of evidence shows that increasing taxes on the wealthy doesn't significantly increase tax revenue. They just progressively take more and more of their wealth out of the economy off shore, or move off shore themselves, along with their businesses. Many governments across the world have tried this and it just doesn't work.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#160

Post by ryacko » Sat, Sep 21, 2019, 8:05 AM UTC

simonh wrote: post #159

Jeff_Brown wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation comes from an increase in the money supply. If we printed the money for it, it would cause inflation, but he plans to tax it. But even if we printed it, it would by no stretch of the imagination cause hyperinflation, just inflation. The M2 money supply -- still an incomplete measure, as there are lots of kinds of money -- in the US is 14 trillion and change, per Investopedia[1]. 12K per year * 350M people i…

The economy isn't an undifferentiated lump of money, stuff and people. It is a complex structure. If most people have a lot more money, they will be able to afford a lot more of the stuff most people buy most of the time. So the inflation will be concentrated in staples and consumer goods simply due to greater demand versus supply. If prices stayed as is, it's hard to see why anyone would do a lot of the low paid to…

After numerous natural disasters, wars, etc, the one long-term constant for prosperity seems to be human capital.

If you have society that attracts the smartest individuals for the most productive professions (which is right now anything involving information technology), your society wins.

Your society will develop new concepts first, will be the first to sell it, and the first to reap revenues from it.

Besides, it is very easy to tax the megacorps.

Tariffs on intellectual property. Or reduce tax deductions on licensing fees. Bermuda is the center of intellectual property ownership.