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Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

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Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#152
post #72
post #2

I don't think Beijing anticipated or endorsed this. In context of Lams leaked resignation remarks yesterday, it looks like Lam is going rogue. She's setting herself up to be replaced via disobedience, because all signs pointed to Emergency Regulations Ordinance being invoked if protest continues. Her legacy is already ruined, but I think she doesn't have the stomach to double down that far. Beijing specifically instr…

I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…

I'd be surprised if CCP exists in 2047.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>only peaceful non-violent struggle can bring about real change. Utterly false, but persistently preached by those in power to ensure there's never any real threat to their position. "Just lie down while I stomp your neck. Don't resist. We'll discuss your objections later, at a more convenient time." All political power emanates from the barrel of a gun. All civil power emanates from the people's latent threat to rev…

The non-violent protest thing seems like a myth that needs to be taken out back and shot, violently. We've seen for decades what they accomplish - absolutely nothing. It reminds me of this. https://theconversation.com/the-forgotten-violence-that-help...

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Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#154
post #152
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…

I'd be surprised if CCP exists in 2047.

What odds are you offering?

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#155
post #55

Random: Did you know Guangzhou (Canton) was briefly capital of China back in the day? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%... There's an important political figure in the history of modern China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Yat-sen He studied medicine in HK. He lived in Hawaii for a time [1]. He had a political philosophy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Principles_of_the_People To m…

> To my surprise I found Sun Yat-sen is still revered in China.

He was one of the most important figures that helped to end the Qing Dynasty. Of course he's revered by communists.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#156
post #72
post #2

I don't think Beijing anticipated or endorsed this. In context of Lams leaked resignation remarks yesterday, it looks like Lam is going rogue. She's setting herself up to be replaced via disobedience, because all signs pointed to Emergency Regulations Ordinance being invoked if protest continues. Her legacy is already ruined, but I think she doesn't have the stomach to double down that far. Beijing specifically instr…

I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…

The real reason for their backdown is that Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act in US will be likely to pass. This bill will punish HK official for violating human right. And potentially forbidden the use of financial services like Visa and Mastercard.

However, it's not even a real backdown though. She just announce to start a motion to backdown, but it was still the decision of parliament to withdraw the bill, and the parliament was controlled by pro-Beijing parties. Practically even pro-Beijing parties care the voter's view so it may withdraw the bill, but it was uncertain whether there were an order from Beijing to vote down withdrawal after the protest was over, so still many uncertainty right here. Not to mention police brutality was not addressed.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this sarcasm? While no authoritarian government can exist with no consent of the government, the PRC has no legal vehicle for citizens to disagree with the state.

that’s basically true, but it does seem china does have some nominal democracy at local levels, which then in turn elect upper levels and so on [1] so, while indirect, there does seem some nominal way to disagree as you say [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_China

You say disagree, I say disappear. Tomato, authoritarian regime.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#159
post #55

Random: Did you know Guangzhou (Canton) was briefly capital of China back in the day? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%... There's an important political figure in the history of modern China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Yat-sen He studied medicine in HK. He lived in Hawaii for a time [1]. He had a political philosophy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Principles_of_the_People To m…

Extra History did a series of 5 10-minute videos about Sun Yat-sen:

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLhyKYa0YJ_5AsEQ8iuHDn...

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#160
post #154
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be surprised if CCP exists in 2047.

What odds are you offering?

I mean, to be fair, everyone thought the soviet union was ironclad, and a lot of people were surprised when it fell.

that said, i'm not optimistic that communist china will reform any time soon.

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