Tesla Q2 2019 Letter • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#151

Post by m463 » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 1:13 AM UTC

notatoad wrote: post #145

Animats wrote: post #108

"GAAP net loss of $408M" - the number that matters. Tesla isn't doing that badly. But now that they have some production volume, they have to be evaluated as a car company, not a startup. Can they make lots of cars at a profit? They got the production quantity up by throwing people, money, and a big tent at the Fremont plant. That ran up the cost per car. Although it's better than their previous state of low producti…

>They're also at the point where all their models need a refresh or a replacement. Tesla is slow at new models compared to the competition. They're definitely at the point where their competitors would have released a replacement (Model S) or refresh (Model X). I'm not sure it's clear that Tesla actually needs to do that. Ford and GM don't release new models just because the clock demands it, they release new models…

I think you're right - the market is demanding a minivan and a pickup more than a new model S.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#152

Post by navigatesol » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 1:14 AM UTC

umeshunni wrote: post #140

navigatesol wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ~90k vehicles Tesla sold this quarter And made less revenue than last quarter. Brilliant. Is the 1 billion dollars lost this year after saying profits forever fake? The lawsuits from whistleblowers? Months long waits for parts? The miniscule growth after slashing prices greatly? The securities violations? Tesla Solar selling the least it ever has? I could care less about some factory shell in China. They told y…

> And made less revenue than last quarter. Brilliant. They made $5.3B this quarter and $3.7B last quarter. Where are you getting your numbers from?

I meant the last delivery record quarter. Information overload on Tesla ER day. More cars, less revenue was the point.

Anyway, like the financials matter here. It's all about the next promise.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#153

Post by xbmcuser » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 2:05 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #89

jameslevy wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any public research or data regarding the value or predicted delta value of long tail "average person" driving data of this kind versus the kind of data captured by driving around the same small portions of SF or MV? I've looked around but haven't found anything. Granted, Tesla and its competitors don't have an incentive to publish this kind of data...but are they even in a position to be able to calculate i…

Probably not. Ordinary staying-on-road is pretty much solved. There's years of dashcam imagery available. The last minute of video before each crash would probably be more useful. Training on dashcam data of people doing stupid stuff from Youtube might be useful. You don't need steering, braking, and accel data; you can run a 3D SLAM algorithm to extract the path and get that.

My 2 problems with Musk is that he has dismissed lidar in favor of just cameras because lidar is expensive. So far most of the Tesla auto pilot accidents would have been avoided with lidar. Even 2 very basic lidar sensors on the front and back could make a huge difference. And he calls a driver assistance system autopilot when it hasn't reached the level of autonomy which the word autopilot implies.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#154

Post by Fins » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 2:21 AM UTC

jayd16 wrote: post #147

BoorishBears wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm so tired of this unapologetic Tesla hand holding. > No other company has the infrastructure to be able to do that. Because they don't want it. They don't want AP regressions we've already seen happen. They don't want engineers testing code out on real people's lives. You really think other companies just don't know how to send OTA updates to an ECU or other car components? I could literally put that together with…

>Why is everything Tesla does always suddenly some sort of competitive advantage Because the difference between could do and did is massive.

And difference between "did" and "should or should not do" is even more massive, although completely beyond Elon's (admittedly rather limited) powers of understanding.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#155

Post by techntoke » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 2:27 AM UTC

bad_good_guy wrote: post #102

techntoke wrote: post #3

Here's to hoping that they hire some creative talent to help make letters that don't look like they are from the 90's.

Why is that important?

If they are going to release this to the public it would help encapsulate the brand as a whole and represent the company in a more professional way.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#156

Post by 693471 » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 2:57 AM UTC

BoorishBears wrote: post #105

jtchang wrote: post #68

Being able to test your code out in the real world and dark launch a feature gives Tesla a ridiculous advantage. No other company has the infrastructure to be able to do that. Plus they can even tell if the decision the neural net made was wrong because I assume even Tesla knows you got into an accident. And this over thousands of cars. The speed at which they are collecting data is unprecedented.

I'm so tired of this unapologetic Tesla hand holding. > No other company has the infrastructure to be able to do that. Because they don't want it. They don't want AP regressions we've already seen happen. They don't want engineers testing code out on real people's lives. You really think other companies just don't know how to send OTA updates to an ECU or other car components? I could literally put that together with…

Have you considered that OTA updates undercut the dealership network and could be seen as servicing vehicles which in many states is illegal for the manufacturer to do so they could suffer consequences, maybe getting banned from selling in that state?

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#157

Post by dyarosla » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 3:20 AM UTC

hadlock wrote: post #109

dyarosla wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree with most of the above except for the "Model Y likely depressing demand"- is there any indication that the Model Y is in demand at all?

People with families strongly prefer crossover models and they've mostly pushed sedans out of the market. It would stand that an electric crossover would outsell a 4 door sedan.

Wouldn’t families strongly prefer a larger car period? Is the Y really that much bigger that it’d convert families who are holding out on a 3 due to size? I haven’t seen anything to suggest as much, and both the 3 and Y are def less roomy than other (albeit non electric) cars that families go for.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#158

Post by dyarosla » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 3:25 AM UTC

slg wrote: post #76

dyarosla wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree with most of the above except for the "Model Y likely depressing demand"- is there any indication that the Model Y is in demand at all?

I personally don't have hard data on it, which is why I used qualifiers such as "likely" and "people expected". Tesla has repeatedly said they expect higher demand for the Y and that fits with what usually sells well in the market. Plus it addresses common complaints about the 3 being "too small" and about the X being "too expensive".

I’ve seen them say that and in the general it’s true, but Tesla has been hush on revelaing any sort of demand with the Y and it doesn’t seem like the Y is that much bigger than a 3 to entice those people who’re holding out on a low end Tesla due to roomy interiors.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#159

Post by Fins » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 3:27 AM UTC

kinghajj wrote: post #99

eanzenberg wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I'm not familiar with what the steering wheel buttons do in a Tesla. Volume, change stations, change tracks, voice command (siri), adaptive cruise control (including mph selection) and auto-steering are available on my steering wheel in my BMW. In the middle of the car, climate zone and drive modes are available as physical buttons and knobs.

The stalks and buttons on the Model 3 can access all of those same features, as well as adjust the follow distance for adaptive cruise control. Climate settings are through the screen, via a fan symbol button in the center. That pops up a temperature selection slider with buttons to increase/decrease the setpoint, and (de)sync the driver/passenger set points. Press the button again, and you get a full screen with mor…

Sounds like just the thing one should be doing in a moving vehicle! /s

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#160

Post by BoorishBears » Thu, Jul 25, 2019, 3:51 AM UTC

icanhackit wrote: post #134

BoorishBears wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm so tired of this unapologetic Tesla hand holding. > No other company has the infrastructure to be able to do that. Because they don't want it. They don't want AP regressions we've already seen happen. They don't want engineers testing code out on real people's lives. You really think other companies just don't know how to send OTA updates to an ECU or other car components? I could literally put that together with…

Running the latest neural net build in a shadow mode pitted against the real world driver and relaying back telemetry where the shadow NN took an opposing action is a little more sophisticated than pushing out an ECU update. I think you're being a little uncharitable or simply don't understand what Tesla are doing.

I say you're intentionally confusing two points.

>Being able to test your code out in the real world and dark launch a feature gives Tesla a ridiculous advantage.

Is the comment I'm responding to.

You're intentionally dragging the rest of it into the conversation to make my point seem absurd.

Par for the course for Tesla defenders.