Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near • Hacker News Board

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#151

Post by joshe » Sat, Feb 16, 2019, 1:09 AM UTC

joshe wrote: post #26

What is Uber's long term moat/pricing power? To compete in a local market you just need to sign up 5000 or so drivers. At a $5 signup bonus that costs like $25,000. You can just be the third app, most drivers already swap between Lyft/Uber. You could even form a drivers cooperative and just give all the charges to drivers (like farmers do). Regulatory capture seems like the only real route to sustainable profits with…

Here's a restatement of what I'm trying to say, the details seem to distract.

Grocery stores, restaurants, and taxis (especially without medallions) are famously low margin, highly competitive business. [1]

Single passenger ride hailing looks a lot like a low margin business.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensherman/2017/12/14/why-cant-...

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#152

Post by erikpukinskis » Sat, Feb 16, 2019, 1:11 AM UTC

blunte wrote: post #145

Maybe because I'm outside the unicorn bubble I can't see the magic, but I find something very warped about a business strategy that combines stratospheric valuation, intentional regulatory non-compliance, perpetual capital injections, service misrepresentation, and unprofessional corporate behavior... and results in massive financial losses year after year. When I try to balance the elements, it frankly looks like an…

> the taxi industry didn't need disruption - it desperately needed a modern ride calling and fare estimating feature

What about areas that had little to no taxi dispatch service before Uber/Lyft?

And what about regions where supply of cab driving licenses was artificially constrained?

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#153

Post by joshe » Sat, Feb 16, 2019, 1:16 AM UTC

treis wrote: post #142

joshe wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Businesses where you burn capital on price wars are low margin businesses.

(1) Low margin is probably OK given the enormous market Uber/Lyft will share. (2) They won't actually have to burn capital. No one is going to get into a price war they obviously can't win.

1) We totally agree, ride hailing is a low margin business.

2) Yes! As long as Uber/Lyft act like low margin businesses no one will compete with them. This means they have no pricing power.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#154

Post by clairity » Sat, Feb 16, 2019, 1:17 AM UTC

jngreenlee wrote: post #54

clairity wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "...you just need to sign up 5000 or so drivers. At a $5 signup bonus that costs like $25,000." that's nowhere near the cost of acquisition for a driver. having worked on driver acquisition, i can tell you it's hundreds of dollars, not $5.

Not trying to be rude, but can you explain your credibility a little further? I'm sure it would be interesting and add to the discussion.

i worked with a number of on-demand companies (ridehailing, delivery, home services, etc.) helping them fill their supply-side funnels. as others have pointed out, it doesn't take much exposure or expertise to realize that the supply side of a marketplace can be expensive. of course retention also highly influences the cost.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#155

Post by sjjshvuiajhz » Sat, Feb 16, 2019, 1:18 AM UTC

clairity wrote: post #132

sjjshvuiajhz wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m just describing an event that happened to me. There are a lot of problems with Uber, but one thing it’s not is the cheapest and most convenient climate-controlled shelter for the city’s destitute mentally ill.

> "...it’s not is the cheapest and most convenient climate-controlled shelter for the city’s destitute mentally ill." i can appreciate this point, but you're still insinuating that destitute people are bad, rather than realizing the complexity of the human condition as embodied in that other living being. why not try to find and express some empathy, or even just some sympathy, for these folks? is there any gain for…

After being assaulted by that stranger I thought about him a lot:

1) He probably has been abused and harmed many times, perhaps in his childhood.

2) He probably expects the worst from people, and thinks that everyone is out to get him.

3) He may be suffering from schizophrenia and literally thought I was attacking him somehow (I was sitting across from him with earbuds in reading a kindle).

4) Becuase there is not enough housing to go around here, the standards are higher, in terms of having an agreeable personality/job skills/overall shit-togetherness to secure a place to live, whether by earning a salary or staying on a friend’s couch or in a homeless shelter.

5) Feedback loops mean that once you are homeless, you suffer a lot and all of the above issues probably get worse.

My personality is such that I end up caring about and loving people that I spend time around or think about a lot. But I’ve learned the hard way that even if you love someone, you need to look out for yourself when trying to help them.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#156

Post by woolvalley » Sat, Feb 16, 2019, 1:18 AM UTC

throwaway-1283 wrote: post #18

The irony of Uber and Lyft both losing so much money is Lyft especially is known for paying some of the highest SWE salaries in SF.

SWE salary is only a part of total comp, and I would be a bit concerned with their stock value compared to the much bigger business that is Uber.

So I understand why the salary portion might be high, to compensate for some of that risk.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#157

Post by TheSpiceIsLife » Sat, Feb 16, 2019, 1:37 AM UTC

aviv wrote: post #143

ghaff wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously? I’d argue that kicking a $5 per day Starbucks habit is hardly a sign that you need to make a career change. It seems a lot closer to plugging a mindless money leak if it’s just something you do by default.

You should kick it because caffeine (and the cow milk most people consume it with) is bad for you, not because it costs $5. And yes, especially after a certain age, you should have a job where a few random $5 charges you don't recognize on your credit card statement are something you ignore and don't even bother disputing.

What do you mean by this?

Any charges made against any payment card or account that you don’t recognise should be swiftly investigated.

If a bad actor charges a bunch of cards a few dollars each, and some portion of them don’t investigate / dispute the charge that could net them quite a sum.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#158

Post by bunderbunder » Sat, Feb 16, 2019, 1:42 AM UTC

moorhosj wrote: post #16

bunderbunder wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd expect it to be positively correlated with nice weather in tourist destinations, because more people would be in town at all. I'd expect it to be inversely correlated in major urban centers, because the number of people needing to get around will have less seasonal variability, and walking, waiting for a bus and riding a bike are all relatively more attractive options when it's not gross outside.

Pretty big overlap between tourist destinations and urban centers.

There is, but, percentage-wise, the seasonal swing to the number of people in town is much bigger for Traverse City, MI than it is for New York, NY.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#159

Post by mertd » Sat, Feb 16, 2019, 1:42 AM UTC

erikpukinskis wrote: post #152

blunte wrote: post #145

Maybe because I'm outside the unicorn bubble I can't see the magic, but I find something very warped about a business strategy that combines stratospheric valuation, intentional regulatory non-compliance, perpetual capital injections, service misrepresentation, and unprofessional corporate behavior... and results in massive financial losses year after year. When I try to balance the elements, it frankly looks like an…

> the taxi industry didn't need disruption - it desperately needed a modern ride calling and fare estimating feature What about areas that had little to no taxi dispatch service before Uber/Lyft? And what about regions where supply of cab driving licenses was artificially constrained?

Or where drivers:

- could refuse service based on factors like customer's race without repercussions.

- accept nothing but cash as payment.

- take the "scenic" route when they realize you're from out of town.

I'm not happy about the way Uber got here but I also don't want to go back to the world before it.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#160

Post by ghaff » Sat, Feb 16, 2019, 1:43 AM UTC

megaremote wrote: post #138

brockwhittaker wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would normally agree but the difference could be around $5 each way for 250 work days a year. A few thousand dollars a year is quite a lot.

If you are regularly commuting via Uber you are doing a lot of things wrong.

Why? If it’s an alternative to owning and parking a car in a city, it seems like something that could be a rational decision especially in the absence of good transit options.