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Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

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Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#151
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point isn't that they were too early, it's that they gave up too quickly. Buying online and picking up from a store really isn't that advanced of a concept.

Buying online and picking up from a store really isn't that advanced of a concept. You're right. Service Merchandise build an empire around it, just by mail or phone instead of computer. Other stores did it, too. JCPenny comes to mind. Even some local and regional chains. Amazon and others think they've invented something. But once again, it's just SV re-inventing something that worked last century.

Amazon introduced the ability to seamlessly and automatically blend counterfeit goods into their supply chain, from sellers that you never heard of before, and may never encounter again.~

But recall that Amazon started with books. The catalog for books is the size of the card catalog that used to be at your library. A row of cabinets, filled with rank and file of drawers, each filled with index cards. One could not ship out paper catalogs, listing every book, to every book-buying home. But delivering the catalog via the internet--and taking orders via web form rather than mail, fax, or phone--made that mail-order business viable. And starting from books, adding other items to the system was just scaling. If you can handle all the ISBN numbers in existence, adding every other consumer product isn't that much more.

Amazon made a system that allows customers to order every item from every product catalog, from the same interface accessible form every couch, and--most importantly--captured their market share early.

But now that omnibus e-commerce exists, competitors are going to chip away until their early-mover advantage is gone, and all they have left is their innovation since then. Aliexpress and Wal-Mart are going to hammer them from the price side, and individual stores that can actually keep the counterfeits, barely-suitable, and white-label garbage out of their catalog will hit them from the quality side.

Amazon's innovation was bigger catalogs, easier ordering. And their early patents are expiring now. They didn't build the other pieces they needed for a 120-year business while they had the protection--like searching and filtering; honest, scam-resistant ratings; and advertising and recommendations. So they have this huge catalog that presents as a giant wall of useless crap that might have the thing you actually want somewhere in it, and not necessarily at the best price. Unlike Sears, they still have enough money in the bank to turn it around before it's too late. Probably not the leadership, though.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what I'm hearing is "so big they had to fail".

I wonder if Amazon will ever get to that point. It's hard to imagine.

For many it is here. If I can get the same product from walmart I do because returns onstore are easier and the product comes quickier without prime. Products always come at the very end of the fullfillment date but with walmart they fill the order before the expected date.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if Amazon will ever get to that point. It's hard to imagine.

As it grows larger, the "Amazon marketplace" is getting more and more filled with garbage knockoff products and fake reviews. There may eventually come a tipping point where they lose user trust.

I'm almost there now.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if Amazon will ever get to that point. It's hard to imagine.

As it grows larger, the "Amazon marketplace" is getting more and more filled with garbage knockoff products and fake reviews. There may eventually come a tipping point where they lose user trust.

My hope is that smaller, more focused online retailers and marketplaces emerge that can compete in specific verticals. For example, I already go to non-amazon sites where I prefer to buy music gear and computer hardware.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get the tone of your post But have you considered that prosperity preaching is the bigger issue here? The idea that “success” = wealth or that they are correlated in any circumstance aside from coincidence, and that other combinations are part of a therefore broken system The reason I bring it up is because its a set of rules exclusive to lower socioeconomic groups, as opposed to a more effective set of rules

Well, for the most part prosperity comes from work. After 40 hours a week of work, each extra 10% of time worked leads to something like 40% extra income. Those that do reach into upper management positions with larger corporations tend to have spent 15 years of 60-hour work weeks. I'm not saying that this is always the case, or that those are even the best priorities to have. But effort, success and wealth are defin…

Yes, but the upper class - which is who this story was guided by - exist because their rate of return exceeded their rate of labor.

The only other commonality is that they distributed risk so that they dont have meanginful losses of money.

The way this is done has nothing to do with prosperity in business, it is always value extraction, not a donation towards the nation’s jobs report. Understanding the set of rules they play by will make a lot of things make sense without the perjorative terms for the participants.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#156
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a good example to those that claim companies should pay employees liberally. Unless you're in a niche that people are willing to pay a margin for or serve upscale customers who also don't mind paying margins (Costco, Whole Foods, Nordstroms, Apple, etc), then you're going to lose business to competitors offering lower prices. In this situation, the only way to improve the well being of those whose labor isn't as…

Costco is an upscale place to shop? I’ve never seen them lumped together with Whole Foods or even Apple. Edit: Wow I didn’t realize Costco’s profit margin was higher than Whole Foods, Wal Mart and almost a full percent above Kroger’s.

Costco is Sam’s Club, without the tattoos.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#157
post #96
post #5

Sears had everything. Global supply chain, check. Top notch distribution operation, check. System and infrastructure to take orders and handling billing, check. Name recognition and established customer base, check. They threw it all away, ending catalog operations in 1993 a year before Amazon.com opened in 1994. They owned part of Prodigy in 1984! Yet somehow thought it was a better move to expand into bigger box re…

I thought this as well until I heard a counter-point [0] which was very convincing. The reason Amazon is successful is not because you can shop online (from a catalog) and receive items in the mail. The reason Amazon is successful is because you can do those things and receive your items within two days. Before Prime existed, Amazon had very quick fulfillment, and after Prime two-day it became even better. The Sears…

Hmm, I could be misremembering, but I think there was almost a decade between the point when Sears had all the legos but didn't know how to assemble them, and when Amazon really started using fast shipping as a differentiator. And I think the "Prime" account branding came still later into the picture.

Before shopping at Amazon ramping up, right around 2000, I remember Sears logistics starting to break down with kafkaesque calls into Sears service and parts departments. I guess the point is, I think the decline of Sears mostly had to do with internal complexity and breakdown of effective management than anything directly to do with Amazon.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would not focus on one competitor. Sears sank themselves. They had everything, more so than JC Penny, but they were also heavily invested in mall locations which as the people spread out the mall orientation hamstrung them. Wal-Mart, Target, Best Buy, and more, were in strip malls everywhere and everywhere usually meant closer to you. Sears could have put some of that aside with a better and stronger online presenc…

One of Sears remaining valuable assets, though, is the real estate left over from its standalone stores. That's one of the bones that the creditors are salivating over.

No, this was true when Sears was viable retailer. They owned very valuable properties in malls. But the process of destroying the retail portion of the company to extract value from the real estate actually devalued the property. Sears was the anchor that made a lot of that property valuable in the first place.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if Amazon will ever get to that point. It's hard to imagine.

As it grows larger, the "Amazon marketplace" is getting more and more filled with garbage knockoff products and fake reviews. There may eventually come a tipping point where they lose user trust.

Most people in my circle already won't buy anything they put in their bodies from Amazon, because the risk of Chinese counterfeits is just too great.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would not focus on one competitor. Sears sank themselves. They had everything, more so than JC Penny, but they were also heavily invested in mall locations which as the people spread out the mall orientation hamstrung them. Wal-Mart, Target, Best Buy, and more, were in strip malls everywhere and everywhere usually meant closer to you. Sears could have put some of that aside with a better and stronger online presenc…

One of Sears remaining valuable assets, though, is the real estate left over from its standalone stores. That's one of the bones that the creditors are salivating over.

What is it that makes the real estate valuable though? A mall with a big hole in it doesn't seem like a good investment. If Sears couldn't make a go of it it's hard to see how anybody else could.
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