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Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

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Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#151

Post by redleggedfrog »

mynameishere wrote: post #144
kiliancs wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only nationalism. Current conflicts are rooted in the same prejudices as a hundred years ago. The root cause (this idea that somehow my nation/religion/race/etc is superior) hasn't been resolved, only more or less patched, and thus these conflicts are bound to reappear and escalate sooner or later until we recognize that that despite the valuable diversity humanity is essentially one and align the political and e…

somehow my nation/religion/race/etc is superior "Somehow". The answer is found quite simply by this formula: "My [whatever] is the [whatever] I belong to." Even if you prove without a doubt that Islam is worse that Christianity, or that one race is worse than another, you won't likely convince the members that they therefore deserve less than they have, or that they should surrender to another. The core tautology sti…

It's quite refreshing, and not a little bit amusing, when you don't belong to anything. The world appears mostly insane.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#152

Post by CamperBob2 »

jbattle wrote: post #68
vvillena wrote: post #44

At this point wars between powerful nations are almost impossible. Proxy wars are the current fashion, and those tend to be controlled in scale by the puppetmasters behind it. I'm more scared about a great civil war in a powerful nuclear nation. Civil wars are a savage affair where no rules apply.

This book was hugely influential in the years just before WW1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion Premise: the large nations of the world are far to intertwined by commerce and culture. Large scale war would be suicidal and the leadership of these countries would never do something so foolish.

They didn't have nukes. With nukes, the principal players no longer feel safe, and large-scale war is disincentivized accordingly.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#153

Post by wtfstatists »

Erem wrote: post #35
jeffdavis wrote: post #29

What's the point of war in the modern world? Gain land/people? If there's a thriving economy there, war will probably change that quickly. If there's no thriving economy, what's the point? You could try to exploit the people/resources there, but the profits in that seem (at least compared to a world power) pretty thin. Unskilled labor and unimproved land are just not worth what they used to be. Specific resources mig…

Your post reminds me of some pre-WW1 opinions shared by Dan Carlin in his great podcast on the topic. There were a number of intelligent observers that thought a pan European war could not happen at that time because the economies of the great powers were going so well.

WW1 was monarchies (professional war-makers) still thinking war-making a major wealth gaining activity. 100 years ago they were proven horribly wrong, and ultimately triggered their extinction. After WW1, world learned that industrial activity had taken the crown from war-making. This brought WW2, socialism and democracy to world scene.

But within next decade world would realize that democrats/socialists are temporary elites filling the vacuum created by the global transition from monarchy to technocracy. This is why there will not be a WW3. Because those who are competent enought to make big money, are making it in tech. There will also not be a global resource war because such mega needs are $$$ opportunity, you can bet there are future-$$$onaires working at this problem this very second.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#155

Post by CamperBob2 »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #38
learc83 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is specifically talking about another "Great War", not limited conventional conflicts. All out, generation crippling war is a far cry from anything we've seen large industrialized countries engage in since World War II. I can't see how anything like another "Great War" could be possible without going nuclear.

Nobody brought out chemical weapons in World War II, though both sides had them. (Granted, chemical weapon defenses were practical in WWII, whereas nuclear weapon defenses are not today. Still, even in great wars, there have been weapons that were not used.)

Nobody brought out chemical weapons in World War II, though both sides had them.

Sure they did. They were just used on civilians instead of regular combatants. What was Zyklon-B, chopped liver?

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#156

Post by GavinMcG »

mistermann wrote: post #139
kiliancs wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only nationalism. Current conflicts are rooted in the same prejudices as a hundred years ago. The root cause (this idea that somehow my nation/religion/race/etc is superior) hasn't been resolved, only more or less patched, and thus these conflicts are bound to reappear and escalate sooner or later until we recognize that that despite the valuable diversity humanity is essentially one and align the political and e…

> Not only nationalism. Current conflicts are rooted in the same prejudices as a hundred years ago. The root cause (this idea that somehow my nation/religion/race/etc is superior) Honest question: is it possible in your opinion for someone to not believe "my nation/religion/race/etc is superior" yet still be opposed to globalism? To me, this is what nationalism means, international cooperation while unequivocally mai…

Not the person you asked the question of, but I think there are reasonable anti-globalist positions that don't have anything to do with superiority. A sort of Ludditism could do. And I actually do think people can be strongly attached to identity without a belief of superiority.

Couldn't non-democratic societies be nationalist? Was nationalism off-limits to Imperial Japan, for example?

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#157

Post by vermilingua »

mistermann wrote: post #139
kiliancs wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only nationalism. Current conflicts are rooted in the same prejudices as a hundred years ago. The root cause (this idea that somehow my nation/religion/race/etc is superior) hasn't been resolved, only more or less patched, and thus these conflicts are bound to reappear and escalate sooner or later until we recognize that that despite the valuable diversity humanity is essentially one and align the political and e…

> Not only nationalism. Current conflicts are rooted in the same prejudices as a hundred years ago. The root cause (this idea that somehow my nation/religion/race/etc is superior) Honest question: is it possible in your opinion for someone to not believe "my nation/religion/race/etc is superior" yet still be opposed to globalism? To me, this is what nationalism means, international cooperation while unequivocally mai…

Yes, by disillusioning yourself that any of those things matter. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter what god you pray to, because prayer is personal; doesn’t matter what nation you call your own, because emigration is easier than ever; and doesn’t matter what colour your skin is, because it doesn’t define you.

Obviously all that is easier said than done, but really if you stop letting any kind of tribal attachment define you as a person, life becomes a lot simpler.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#158

Post by wolfspider »

This article does appear to conclude many points on the premise of nationalism and it’s varied outcomes. Nationalism has only existed for not much more than 200 years which is not very long at all compared to all of human history. In the USA we are given this notion that these ideas are a solid foundation but I tend to think that America is very young and most national concepts are still very experimental. It will take much more time to figure out what is really going on here, what the goal is, and how to cope with it all. That may be the cause of a great war just a worldwide upheaval of imposed thought much like the Napoleonic era where the concept of monarchies was challenged again and again. In the transition from Rome to the Byzantine empire it seems religious and cultural freedoms were challenged during that period. If we all woke up one day and realized something very ingrained in our world is wrong then change would take place hell or high water. Much of the intrinsic message of nationalism is a dissolution of multiculturalism refining it into a set of rules which cannot be argued with by literally drawing lines in the sand. The only thing that used to matter was the town a person was from (e.g. last names with the name of that town or region). Today we create so many large homogeneous groups based on borders the rationality of favoritism and hatred becomes absurd. Maybe we are at the end of this serving much of a purpose after all so it’s time for a much needed review complete with unresolved baggage from an earlier time. I would like to get off at the closest stop before things get too weird personally.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#159

Post by auganov »

demosito666 wrote: post #45

What the article and the commenters here seem to forget is that it's not only the technological level/political situation has changed, but the way people think as well. There are several global trends that allow for optimistic predictions regarding big wars of the future. The global level of violence is dropping and overall tolerance of casualties is declining. Rising cost of human life shifts the perception of confl…

Military spending around the western world was in line with what we have today (single digit %) before Nazis started the arms race.

This sense of increased morality was also present around WW2. German jew hatred was never a secret, yet few anticipated the scale what was coming. And even after the war it wasn't until the 70s before the horrors of the Holocaust really entered common public awareness.

Some of that perception today is a result of censorship too. While most realize China is persecuting the Falun Gong few realize it goes into a million with a significant percentage murdered. And now China seems to be doing a similar thing with Muslims, albeit no reports of mass murder yet. If we go to war with China I'm sure this information will go from relatively embargoed to an important element of justifying the conflict.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#160

Post by [deleted] »

jeffdavis wrote: post #29

What's the point of war in the modern world? Gain land/people? If there's a thriving economy there, war will probably change that quickly. If there's no thriving economy, what's the point? You could try to exploit the people/resources there, but the profits in that seem (at least compared to a world power) pretty thin. Unskilled labor and unimproved land are just not worth what they used to be. Specific resources mig…

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