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Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling

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Re: Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling

#151
post #21

A currency with no mechanism for monetary policy is not going to be adopted. Bitcoin is purely deflationary for more reasons than just people losing their keys. For example, a fixed reward split between a growing group of miners will also cause a rising price floor. The miners will not sell for less than their electricity costs, which makes the smaller piece of the block reward they receive have a higher price. So yo…

I disagree with several of your statements. First, bitcoin has a monetary policy, and the key is that it cant be changed, which is very appealing: more appealing that storing gold vs fiat, since gold has a less predictable monetary policy. Gold had been chosen as currency for most of history, across cultures and languages. In countries where the currency breaks down, things like chocolate, potatoes or corn get into circulation. Also bonds and other papers of different calibers.

It is not the deflationary policy that makes bitcoin less adoptable: being deflationary predictably is better than unpredictably inflationary. Specially in this day and age, where bitcoin prices can be tracked to the second and prices changed accordingly across the board. Its interesting to see there's research talking about how the ability to price things faster has changed the effect of monetary policy on prices at all.

The rest, I agree. It has a very speculative value, and its best usecase is pass-through. But pass through is still a good use-case. Argentina, 3 years ago, would pay up to 5% of funds to transfer money in-out of the country: bitcoin would have been easier and cheaper. And its still used as a way to evade controls. The use of bitcoin can severely reduce the government's capacity to levy taxes, as it is way harder to track down than bank/card transfers. Whether that's moral or good will be secondary to the fact that it can do that. If its use case is to sell drug money and reduce taxes, it will have value.

Re: Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling

#152
post #10

It has been clear for a while now that Bitcoin is an inferior payment system for the consumer: * The fees are higher. * The risk to the consumer is higher. * The difficulty of use is higher. * It is accepted at an extremely low amount of vendors and even that is falling. So you really how to wonder why people ever thought consumers would use it en masse.

One of your points is of dubious validity: fees may not be higher. Fees went very high when the network became congested; but when it’s not congested, they’re much lower than credit card systems are for normal businesses. https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/ suggests that right now, what equates to about nine US cents is sufficient for a basic transaction. And if you’re happy to wait an hour, then two cents ought to do you…

One benefit of crypto might be that it lights a fire under the ass of banks to improve their services. There is no technical reason why banks can’t match or exceed the convenience of crypto for making money transfers. They just haven’t had enough competition to make it happen yet.

Re: Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling

#153

It sounds weird, but I think a big part of Bitcoin's, and other crypto's value, isn't in the day to day ability to use it to buy and sell things, it's the inability of the government to devalue it. This isn't as big a problem in many richer countries with relatively stable currencies, but I sure as hell would prefer Bitcoin to anything the Venezuelan government or the Argentinian government would issue. The kinks are…

I mean, what advantage does it have over gold? Advantages of gold vs. Bitcoin: - gold is pretty easy to find, not that hard to buy for the average consumer; BTC is anything but - gold is physical in form and securing it is not hard; BTC is not physical, exchanges get hacked with losses to accounts, in the event of a natural disaster or some event where power generation and internet is lost you lose access to BTC. (So…

>where power generation and internet is lost you lose access to BTC

You don't need the internet nor the power grid to use bitcoin.

To use bitcoin via the Lightning Network minimally, you need a CPU and a method to transmit data.

CPU: phone

Transmit Data: Bluetooth, QR code/camera.

Electricity for your phone: Cheap emergency solar panel

Re: Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling

#154

It's pretty remarkable that the transaction layer (Lightning network) on top of Bitcoin hasn't garnered any discussion in this comment section - I would expect this to be the primary topic when talking Bitcoin commerce! It's not possible to have an intelligent discussion on Bitcoin commerce without discussing its most relevant tech. From my experience, I see that most apolitical or politically averse techies (a lot o…

> It's pretty remarkable that the transaction layer (Lightning network) on top of Bitcoin hasn't garnered any discussion in this comment section

I would say it's pretty encouraging since it barely works, doesn't deliver on any of its promises and much more convoluted to use that normal crypto-currency.

Re: Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling

#155

It sounds weird, but I think a big part of Bitcoin's, and other crypto's value, isn't in the day to day ability to use it to buy and sell things, it's the inability of the government to devalue it. This isn't as big a problem in many richer countries with relatively stable currencies, but I sure as hell would prefer Bitcoin to anything the Venezuelan government or the Argentinian government would issue. The kinks are…

I mean, what advantage does it have over gold? Advantages of gold vs. Bitcoin: - gold is pretty easy to find, not that hard to buy for the average consumer; BTC is anything but - gold is physical in form and securing it is not hard; BTC is not physical, exchanges get hacked with losses to accounts, in the event of a natural disaster or some event where power generation and internet is lost you lose access to BTC. (So…

> I mean, what advantage does it have over gold?

It's electronic. That is the only advantage, but it's a huge one considering that virtually all (yes, virtually all) money transfers are done electronically today.

Re: Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling

#156
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a reason why an investor that holds a security until it is worthless is called a "bag holder". It makes no sense to "invest" in any currency when you can own productive assets instead. If you are concerned about the government seizing your assets, I would suggest emigrating to a country that respects private property rights. Countries that undergo hyperinflation are fairly rare, and the citizens of those cou…

Your argument is also applicable to gold yet it doesn't hold there

My argument holds for gold as well. Do some research on ROI for gold against the stock market for the past 80 years. You will find that it has a pitiful return when compared to owning stocks. Gold is a non productive asset, just because people buy it when there is a market panic doesn't make it a wise decision (people do dumb things during market panics).

If you hoard gold you also run the risk of someone finding a lot of gold and ruining your investment. It's a commodity just like coal, copper, or wheat. If someone told you to hold all of your money in coal, the advice would be just as valid as those who tell you to put money in gold. At the end of the day if you have no productive use for the asset, why hold it?

Re: Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, what advantage does it have over gold? Advantages of gold vs. Bitcoin: - gold is pretty easy to find, not that hard to buy for the average consumer; BTC is anything but - gold is physical in form and securing it is not hard; BTC is not physical, exchanges get hacked with losses to accounts, in the event of a natural disaster or some event where power generation and internet is lost you lose access to BTC. (So…

Maybe its a generational thing, but i have no clue how i would go about buying/trading gold and i dont think anyone in my friend group does either. Bitcoin is far more accessible.

You just Google for "buy gold" just like you would for anything else.

Re: Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling

#158

It's pretty remarkable that the transaction layer (Lightning network) on top of Bitcoin hasn't garnered any discussion in this comment section - I would expect this to be the primary topic when talking Bitcoin commerce! It's not possible to have an intelligent discussion on Bitcoin commerce without discussing its most relevant tech. From my experience, I see that most apolitical or politically averse techies (a lot o…

> It's pretty remarkable that the transaction layer (Lightning network) on top of Bitcoin hasn't garnered any discussion in this comment section I would say it's pretty encouraging since it barely works, doesn't deliver on any of its promises and much more convoluted to use that normal crypto-currency.

I can send less than a satoshi to someone across the globe for virtually zero fees, anonymously and without any need to wait for block confirmations? And all of this works right now on mainnet?

Bitcoin progress has always consisted of overcoming allegedly insurmountable problems, Lightning dev is no different. Next up is solving efficient routing and intermittent nodes.

Re: Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling

#159
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the government wants your gold or private key, they’re going to get it. How long are you going to hold out against their proverbial $5 rubber hose? Solitary confinement? Mundane legal threats?

How does it know you have one? You can use brain wallet[1], you can use trezor with multiple passphrases. You can give up some of your bitcoins and if you manage your wallets properly then no one can prove you have some more. 1. Don't use brain wallets, unless you really understand security

Because at some point you have to pay taxes, or break the law. They nailed Al Capone, and you’re not Al Capone. I suppose you could buy it in secret and never liquidate it, spend it, or declare it... and therefore never benefit from it. I guess that’s a “win” in some books? Otherwise the answer to your question is pretty obvious, and ends with you in prison.

Re: Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling

#160
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this context, it's much harder to protect gold from the government (if it decides it wants to take it away). Plus buying stuff online is more tricky. I could envision alternative reality though, where there are companies specializing in providing tokens that have 100% coverage in gold. You would need to trust them and their software, but some trust is always involved. The problem is those would be an easy target w…

If the government wants your gold or private key, they’re going to get it. How long are you going to hold out against their proverbial $5 rubber hose? Solitary confinement? Mundane legal threats?

I’m not concerned about rubber hoses on me as much as I’m concerned about threats to my friends and family. I wouldn’t hold out very long at all.
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