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Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

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Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#151

Post by jacquesm »

qaq wrote: post #137
jacquesm wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of things coming together that each individually would have been a serious challenge, to have them all at once and within 6 months of each other is pretty rough. Even so, I would not bet against Musk, he has a habit of making it through somehow. There is a book with a character in it called Reid Malenfant, Musk reminds me of that character. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_(Baxter_novel) You get to…

I'll give you a hypothetical about what I tried to convey. Qatar is spending 200 billion in relation to world cup 2022 in large part as a part of PR effort. Now imaging 2 hypothetical news stories VW AG is opening and innovation center in Doha, Qatar. Tesla Inc. is opening an innovation center in Doha, Qatar. What would be a PR value for each of them be for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani just ballpark a figure that he woul…

Oh sure, but then you're in rescue territory. But that's not what we are talking about here, we are evaluating - or at least, I am trying to evaluate - how serious the problems are in isolation. That there will be some white knight is beyond a doubt for me even if things do go very wrong.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#152

Post by maxerickson »

adventured wrote: post #53
danso wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are the other makers "years behind" Tesla? The Model S is the best-selling EV but not by an order of magnitude. GM was pretty close last year in sales and I don't think it's a bad bet to bet that GM will beat Tesla in getting self-driving tech (GM Cruise is only second to Waymo in testing self-driving, at least in California). https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/30/the-5-best-selling... https://www.theverge.co…

Using one example to represent the industry is the issue in your premise. This list nicely proves my point: How many EVs is Volkswagen selling per year? How many EVs is Subaru selling per year? How many EVs is Fiat selling per year? How many EVs is Ferrari selling per year? How many EVs is Daimler selling per year? How many EVs is Ford selling per year? How many EVs is PSA selling per year? How many EVs is Hyundai Ki…

Multiple automakers have good enough electric drivetrains to really shorten the time Tesla has to fix their production volume and fit & finish issues. If they don't execute this year their decade of brand building is not going to amount to a whole lot (maybe they have until midway through next year?).

The other automakers aren't pairing the drivetrains with big expensive batteries, so they aren't selling them with big expensive batteries, but there's also only so much consumer demand for $45,000+ electric vehicles.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#153

Post by jacquesm »

dmode wrote: post #132
qaq wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the scale of Tesla's own history how would you rate that rough time? E.g. is it more rough vs 1st year of Tesla 2nd year? 3rd Year? How rough is it for people who actually pulled through all the challenges they faced from the founding till now. I think people are overestimating the "rough times" part. Musk and Tesla have a ton of good will that no other automaker has and they can leverage that in a rough situation…

This. When the first Model X came off the line and it was full of quality issues, that was a rough time. When NYT wrote a tough piece on the early Model S, that was a tough time. When the early Model S caught on fire that was a rough time. This is definitely NOT even close to rough time. 2000 Model 3 per week is close to Model S numbers.

It does not matter that the numbers are 'close to model S numbers', the Model 3 is far less profitable than the S ever was and you'd need to crank out a multiple of them on that line anyway to be in the black in the long term.

It surprises me that people think that making a budget car is easier than a luxury sedan. Make no mistake: successfully launching a budget vehicle is much harder than making a luxury vehicle.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#154

Post by jacquesm »

WhompingWindows wrote: post #138
jacquesm wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is attempting to change too much at once. New model, new (highly automated) production line and adding a degree of self driving over and beyond what is currently present in other cars, probably will run out of cash somewhere this year. Any one of those would be a major challenge and a major achievement to lick. While I totally admire Elon Musk for challenging all these things at once you have to wonder about th…

I don't think any of it is too much for Elon to handle. I think the problem is that he over-hypes the potential output of his companies, leading to constant "delays" and "setbacks". If he just kept his numeric predictions to himself and said "we will perform an exponential ramp over the first few years on par with the Model T", he wouldn't see so much flak for not hitting Model 3 production claims.

Agreed, but that's the problem with going public. Once you do that you have to show numbers.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#155

Post by jacquesm »

bluGill wrote: post #110
adventured wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisf... Tesla in fact ranks with Acura on quality, above Volvo, and just below Volkswagen and Ford. The low rating on Mercedes should be pretty embarrassing for them, they're merely one quality notch above Tesla and comparable to Ford.

That is owner satisfaction, which means nothing. It is common for that list to have a car to have a significantly different rating depending on what the logo on the hood it. If the car has the GM brand it will be rated lower than if it has the Toyota brand, even though the car is EXACTLY the some other than the brand.

That explains the Honda/Acura difference. I could not make sense of that.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#156

Post by mikeg8 »

jacquesm wrote: post #63
beltex wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. Given the number of down votes, either folks didn't catch that, or it's all the short sellers :)

Or maybe it was a lame joke by the CEO of a publicly traded company and as such totally out of order. That joke might have been funny if Tesla was making 7500 model 3 cars / week.

Agreed. Can't wait to live in a world where CEOs can control themselves and refrain from cracking a quick joke on April Fools Day.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#157

Post by jacquesm »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #127
ekrebs wrote: post #8

2,020 is under Elon's 2,500 prediction, but well above the 1,000-1,500 expectations of those shorting the stock (unless the shorts' articles were deliberately misleading, of course). Also, according to the release, those are customer-delivered numbers. Overall, a good trajectory and a sign of long-term health.

2,020 is about halfway between 1,500 and 2,500. It’s almost like both sides are selling hyperbole around a truth in the middle.

Except that wasn't the prediction, the prediction was 5K / week:

https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/01/tesla-predicts-production-...

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#158

Post by jacquesm »

mikeg8 wrote: post #156
jacquesm wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe it was a lame joke by the CEO of a publicly traded company and as such totally out of order. That joke might have been funny if Tesla was making 7500 model 3 cars / week.

Agreed. Can't wait to live in a world where CEOs can control themselves and refrain from cracking a quick joke on April Fools Day .

With being listed on the stock exchange comes a certain amount of responsibility. If you can't control yourself from making jokes about your company going bankrupt then maybe you should stay private?

Keep in mind there are people's savings on the line here.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#159

Post by decacorn »

jacquesm wrote: post #149
WhompingWindows wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with your comment is the book addresses the history of the company and puts those fundamentals into perspective. I'd argue Tesla has been in rough times for most if not all of its existence. Do you think having 200 problem Roadsters in a warehouse in their first year was great? They had colossal issues with the conversion of Lotus Elise chasses to Tesla Roadsters, they were hand-building and customizing e…

There is a problem that comes with operating at scale: yes, there are economies of scale, but they only work to your advantage when everything is running smoothly. When things are not running smoothly and you are for instance losing on every product sold those losses mount extremely rapidly. Car manufacturing is a scary undertaking for exactly that reason, especially in the Model 3 segment (where a certain amount of…

tesla does not lose money on model S or X.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#160

Post by jacquesm »

InitialLastName wrote: post #126
pm90 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Come on, he can be a salesman and a genius. At least he is a very extreme determined and hard working person, if not an actual "genius" (whose brains are wired differently). People don't generally make a mid career change into rocket science and then have the most successful private rocket launch company.

> People don't generally make a mid career change into rocket science and then have the most successful private rocket launch company ... except for the other successful entrepreneurs who made mid-career changes to fund private rocket launch companies: - Jeff Bezos (Blue Origin) - Robert Bigelow (Bigelow Aerospace) - Jim Benson (SpaceDev) - Richard Branson (Virgin Galactic) I'll grant that Musk appears to be a succes…

You forgot Carmack and Armadillo Aerospace.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armadillo_Aerospace

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