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Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

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Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#151
post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

I live in Sweden and never even thought about how Germany "dominates". Is it just because I come from a much smaller country with much smaller population and therefore much smaller expectations about what we can accomplish on the world stage? Or is it because our views align much better with those of Germany, so we are part of the same "bloc" in EU politics whereas the UK would want to pull in another direction but c…

If you go back a few years, there was a large hysteria across much of the Eurozone about German domination of the bloc. Magazine cover after magazine cover painting them in terrible light, including some going so far as to reference back to Nazi times.

That coincided with the post effects of the great recession, when Germany essentially refused to allow more liberal central bank posturing and action to try to follow the more aggressive US Fed lead on how to properly respond to the terrible recession and the financial system consequences. Germany wanted a very restrictive, conservative approach. There was a split at that point between the members that were suffering and Germany which was in mostly solid shape (the peak of the Greek disaster was also near a peak of the anti-German sentiment).

The US recovery took root relatively quickly, after about a year, thanks in part to the Fed taking aggressive action to stabilize the banks and financial system (the US would have seen Citi, Bank of America, etc. all collapse otherwise; those banks are now extremely healthy and printing massive profits again). It was only when the ECB finally copied the Fed's approach that the broad EU and Eurozone economies began to rapidly recover (and for those already in good shape, it has pushed them into something closer to economic boom). You can look at a chart of EU or Eurozone economic growth, you'll see a nasty double recessionary dip around 2011-2012. After that, the ECB finally began to shift its behavior and do what they should have done years prior, which has led to a sustained recovery in most parts of the EU since then (you see it in meaningfully increased growth rates, from Finland finally recovering after a disastrous 8-10 years, to Spain and Portugal finally seeing serious improvement, to German growth picking up, to French unemployment finally declining significantly, etc).

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#152
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's…

From my little time in the UK right before the Brexit vote, similar patterns emerged in public discourse about the vote. Disclaimed: anecdata below. From the few people I talked to, both the leave and remain group seemed to leave voters mostly thinking, “the other choice sounds bad,” rather than having real strong reasons and desired outcomes in favor of voting one way or the other. It was a fear-driven vote, one to…

both the leave and remain group seemed to leave voters mostly thinking, “the other choice sounds bad,”

Absolutely, this. The remain campaign was actually labelled "Project Fear" [0], I mean if that doesn't say it all I don't know what does ..

There was never, any actual discussion of what brexit means. How it would look. What consitutional adjustments would be made. Simply a binary "Stay" or "Leave" on the Ballot, which strikes me as particularly absurd and should in some way undermine the constitutionality of it.

Brexit to me, is the outcome of an absolute failure in governance by all concerned, whatever the outcome, and whatever outcome was envisaged by those that voted for it. ..

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Fear_(British_politics...

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bad. If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only will cost so much money (and pain) that it would justify staying in the EU. Then, of course there are companies that have left and that will leave, highly-skilled workflow for London that will be harder to get, etc. They have to negotiate with the EU so…

Your first argument boils down to "it's difficult to leave so why bother". That's an objectively terrible reason to stay, no matter your political affiliation or feelings about the EU. As far as the "old people did this to us" meme. The 75% of young people who purportedly are so strongly against brexit probably should have bothered to vote if they wanted that outcome. Additionally, there are other factors than just a…

> Your first argument boils down to "it's difficult to leave so why bother".

How

> we might consider that they actually stand to benefit far less (or have plausible reasons to feel this way) from the EU than someone (such as the average HN reader)

Not really. I've seen documentaries where they showed how good Europe was (and still is) to the countryside in many countries where the State didn't allocate any resources and all of a sudden they had money to build libraries in small villages. Those villagers just didn't know where that money came from, but that doesn't change the fact. My girlfriend's sister lives in the Polish country and Europe is giving the area money to take care of the national park around her house that was previously left abandoned and in such bad conditions that you couldn't even walk around with the vegetation left to itself.

> I do, and I've taken every opportunity that membership has afforded me. I still don't like how (or by whom) it is run or how expansive its powers have become over time.

Actually, the EU seems to be pretty efficient, considered the huge amount of stuff they do. Of course, there's always room to complain, but I don't see any better alternative out there. If you're from the UK though, you'll get to see if your government is a better option I guess?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#154
post #46
post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

Losing access to the free market would be fine if we gain access to the global market, at least in the medium to long term. The ability to drop tariffs on imports would be a big deal even in the short term. In reality, though, I don't see us leaving the trappings of the EU with this current govt: we'll just lose our seat at the table (to coin a phrase). This was never going to be quick, though: the Brexit issue will…

> slow erosion of our sovereignty

What exactly are changes in the UK's sovereignity?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#155
post #144
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an interesting point, which may very well be the end result of Brexit. However, what was the alternative? The UK public have consistently asked their politicians to reduce immigration since the 60s and this has been reflected over and over again in poll data. However, politicians have always ignored this request and while the UK is in the EU politicians have very little control over total number anyway. So ba…

> politicians have always ignored this request They absolutely haven't - policy has been rewritten over the past couple of decades to make immigration extremely difficult. What I suspect is going on is that some people want the absolute number of non-"ethnically british" people reduced, which is ethically impossible given that many were in fact born here or already achieved ILR. Nobody is being "replaced".

What's your definition of replaced? If Europeans didn't kill any native Americans, but just replaced them demographically despite the them not consenting would that be moral in your opinion? Because that's what's happening.

And are you suggesting the EU's free movement isn't a thing? What exactly makes it so difficult for someone from Eastern Europe to come to the UK?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#156
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then have a vote with multiple alternatives Also I would favour a disclaimer on the bottom Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU (hard Brexit) will result in longer times and possible caveats when entering other countri…

The problem is you can't have a multiple choice referendum because it would split the leave vote. For example: A. "Hard" Brexit B. "Soft" Brexit C. No Brexit Brexitors would be somewhat split between A and B, and all remainers would pick C. Can I add some disclaimers to? * Tick here if you are aware there are shortages of doctors and nurses (and other skilled professions) in eastern European countries like Romania be…

> Tick here if you understand while in the EU the UK has effectively zero control over it's immigration and trade.

- "its" not "it's"

- the UK retains some control of immigration w.r.t EU citizens (some of which they chose not to enforce and it also allows UK citizens to avail of freedom of movement as well) and full control of the immigration of non-EU citizens, so your assertion is false

- Brain drain is debatable, there was never a position for a lot of them in the 1st place (and they might just go somewhere else)

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#157
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's…

In your opinion, what do you think the consequences with regards to Scotland will be given some time? Might they seek another independence vote to then rejoin the EU?

In some circles, it has been mooted that the discussions going on over Northern Ireland are in preparation for this eventuality. That the UK is hedging against an eventual break up and wants to figure out how best to mitigate any ill effects of this for all concerned.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#158
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would reckon there have been no anti-Brexit riots primarily because Brexit isn't really the end of the world – it's just a ludicrously stupid, badly-handled, long-term-damaging project. It's hard to get riot-angry that "living conditions will get gradually worse over the next decade"

A lot depends on what happens to the EU nationals currently resident here. At some point their status will be crystallised. It's unlikely but if the government goes for "everyone now has 6 weeks to leave or you're deported", that's riot material.

even a future hypothetical dystopian government would be smarter than that

no need to deport anyone when they could slowly withdraw the right to work (say when someone swaps jobs)

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#159
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's…

>Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. I don't think that's an accurate analysis. As far as I can tell the vote was driven mainly by economic distress, media (which papers you read) and community (a lot of people just voted the same way their friends or family did). >The London Tech scene (which skews left/liberal) seems to be hemorrhaging talented people to Berlin and other places. I know a lot of…

If all the valuable talent is gone surely that means I'm going to be worth more?

I'd be more inclined to think, deadweight losses notwithstanding, that this means a lot of the work will go elsewhere ..

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Sweden and never even thought about how Germany "dominates". Is it just because I come from a much smaller country with much smaller population and therefore much smaller expectations about what we can accomplish on the world stage? Or is it because our views align much better with those of Germany, so we are part of the same "bloc" in EU politics whereas the UK would want to pull in another direction but c…

If you go back a few years, there was a large hysteria across much of the Eurozone about German domination of the bloc. Magazine cover after magazine cover painting them in terrible light, including some going so far as to reference back to Nazi times. That coincided with the post effects of the great recession, when Germany essentially refused to allow more liberal central bank posturing and action to try to follow…

> there was a large hysteria across much of the Eurozone about German domination of the bloc. Magazine cover after magazine cover painting them in terrible light, including some going so far as to reference back to Nazi times.

I try to keep up with politics and news and saw none of this (I watch foreign TV but don't read foreign newspapers a lot). So I don't think there has been a lot of painting germany as a bad guy in Swedish media, no. Why that is, I can only speculate. Would be interesting to hear if the same is true in e.g. Denmark, Finland.

> That coincided with the post effects of the great recession, when Germany essentially refused to allow more liberal central bank posturing and action to try to follow the Fed lead on how to properly respond to the terrible recession and the financial system consequences

If the 2008 recession was behind it, Sweden recovered very quickly and wasn't as hard hit (Partly because we weren't as influenced by ECB interest rate politics). Perhaps that is also a reason.

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