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Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

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151–156 of 156 posts

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a bell curve, though.

No? A (very) quick and dirty plot looks like a pretty normal distribution to me... https://www.dropbox.com/s/fs9fqjsq6vau5bt/Screenshot%202017-...

Note that nine-sigma (or whatever it is) event on the right.

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The few historical evacuations of >1mil people have often been over the course of 7+days, as well as over very large areas. The only _successful_ evacuation of a major metropolitan area (>3mil) in 20k causalities so it is hard to call that successful.

I beg to differ. Exodus of ~1m people in about one day is frequently observed in Europe. It can't be done with cars, of course, because cars are not a means of mass transportation. It can be done easily with trains, though. Example: Street Parade Zurich, attended by about a million people. Virtually all of those people arrive by train immediately before the event, and are gone the next day. Watching > 100k people pou…

Okay this is idiotic.

Evacuation are very different from attending work, or attending a festival. Namely... You plan to return to your home/apartment/etc. and your belongs will still be present. There isn't the threat of death.

Furthermore Evacuations require moving people who often _don't_ have the ability to travel on their own. Rather by choice, or socio-economic pressures i.e.: poverty, or limited parking in city centers. Therefore attendance to work/events for these people is normally just walking a handful of blocks, or using public transit which become limited when dealing with evacuations.

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#153
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah. Where is "here"? Miami is not the only major airport in Florida. Orlando->Atlanta and Tampa->JFK are both available for $114.

Northwest Cape Coral.

Looks like your area is now in a "mandatory" evacuation zone. Are you still staying put?

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#154

This site makes an appearance on HN somewhat regularly, but in case it's new to anyone, it tends to be a pretty useful forecast visual for wind: https://www.windy.com/?25.820,-67.720,5

windy, ventusky and some of the others do NOT get wind speeds correctly. At no time during the last three days did they even have winds for Hurricane Irma over 80mph.

Discussion on their forums[0], most upset that these 'visualizers' are more fiction than fact. Also worth noting... getting wind speeds wrong can cost lives.

[0] https://community.windy.com/topic/4415/why-is-wind-speed-in-...

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#155
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Northwest Cape Coral.

Looks like your area is now in a "mandatory" evacuation zone. Are you still staying put?

Yes, I stayed put. I'm also okay/alive/etc.

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#156
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like your area is now in a "mandatory" evacuation zone. Are you still staying put?

Yes, I stayed put. I'm also okay/alive/etc.

Glad to hear it. When you're fully recovered let's chat about security some time.
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