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The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

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Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#151

Post by michaelbarton »

harryf wrote: post #111
TheSmiddy wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that giving someone just enough money to live will kill their motivation is insane. If that were true why do people still work 40+ hour weeks when they could be earning enough to live on just 15? Most UBI schemes are initially targeting around 1k per month which is nowhere near enough satisfy the vast majority of people.

Our ideas about motivation are shaped by self fulfilling prophecy; most people are on the planet a working jobs which are, at best, a compromise for what they want to do with their lives. As a result staying motivated is hard because you're ultimately doing it just for the money. So yeah; let's give large numbers of people a chance to try doing what they want with their lives. Yes it will not be easy. More education…

I very much agree with you. Related to the parent comment I think it's not so much about killing their motivation, more a case that many people's skills will no longer be, or already are not needed. My simple theory about the current political anger in the US is that it's not so much money, though still important, that hurts people from unemployment. Instead I think that it is feeling that you are no longer needed by society or the people around you that hurts the most. I imagine that it must be existentially distressful to feel that you have nothing to contribute and very likely never will again.

The Dalai Lama puts it better than I can:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/opinion/dalai-lama-behind...

My guess is that in additional to a basic income, you'll need to find a way to make people feel that they are needed and useful. I think it's easy for the men and women on HN, who tend to be the go-getter type to say that they would start up a business or take up painting. However I think we could all probably learn learn a little from the unemployed factory worker in Akron Ohio about what would they do with basic income, unlimited free time, but limited job prospects.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#152

Post by dragonwriter »

roryisok wrote: post #119
fictioncircle wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's funny how boredom, vice, and the indignity of receiving income without continual labor loom in importance if and only if we're talking about technological unemployment. What of people receiving Social Security, pensions, inherited wealth, royalties from patents and copyrights, rents collected on real estate...? It is largely a desire for a control mechanism where the sheep are inherently dependent on the mecha…

I'm not against Universal Basic Income, but there are some things about it which worry me, and which don't seem to come up very much in these discussions. leverage If we're all on basic income, we no longer have any leverage if our "wages" are reduced. The ruling classes can decide to drop the amount we earn, and there's not much we can do about it. Sure, we can "vote", but we can't strike, which is a far more powerf…

> If we're all on basic income, we no longer have any leverage if our "wages" are reduced. [...] Sure, we can "vote", but we can't strike, which is a far more powerful way to fight against pay decreases.

Actually, if no one needs your labor (which is the only situation in which you have BI but not actual wages) you can't strike, whether or not you are getting BI. The loss of leverage is a result of the declining demand for labor, not the presence of UBI redistributing income.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#153

Post by dvtv75 »

roryisok wrote: post #119
fictioncircle wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's funny how boredom, vice, and the indignity of receiving income without continual labor loom in importance if and only if we're talking about technological unemployment. What of people receiving Social Security, pensions, inherited wealth, royalties from patents and copyrights, rents collected on real estate...? It is largely a desire for a control mechanism where the sheep are inherently dependent on the mecha…

I'm not against Universal Basic Income, but there are some things about it which worry me, and which don't seem to come up very much in these discussions. leverage If we're all on basic income, we no longer have any leverage if our "wages" are reduced. The ruling classes can decide to drop the amount we earn, and there's not much we can do about it. Sure, we can "vote", but we can't strike, which is a far more powerf…

As far as leverage goes, my present employer relies entirely on there being little alternative to what he offers. If I had a UBI, that would remove his leverage and I could leave - and I would, in a heartbeat.

Why work for almost no money every week, why work extra hours for free just to satisfy an incompetent's power lust if you don't have to?

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#154

Post by masonic »

shams93 wrote: post #45
philipkglass wrote: post #43

That threat has many thinkers entertaining the idea of a universal basic income, a guaranteed living wage paid by the government to anyone left out of the workforce. But McAfee believes this would only make the problem worse, because it would eliminate the incentive for entrepreneurship and other activity that could create new jobs as the old ones fade away. Others question the psychological effects of the idea. “A u…

Exactly we could have a society oriented around the arts and sciences, pure creativity and discovery instead of bullshit jobs we could put the pedal to the metal in human freedom and innovation.

Do you see much "creativity and discovery" coming out of present-day homeless shelters and encampments?

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#155

Post by inderLogging »

chubasco wrote: post #6

Skynet probably wasn't built for its own sake. It was probably built to protect the people who owned Skynet from the people that didn't.

Skynet has a specific origin story, explained in the movie, Terminator 2: Judgement Day.

  In three years, Cyberdyne will become the
  largest supplier of military computer 
  systems. All stealth bombers are upgraded 
  with Cyberdyne computers, becoming fully 
  unmanned. Afterwards, they fly with a 
  perfect operational record. The Skynet 
  Funding Bill is passed. The system goes 
  online August 4th, 1997. Human decisions 
  are removed from strategic defense. Skynet 
  begins to learn at a geometric rate. It 
  becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern 
  time, August 29th. In a panic, they try 
  to pull the plug. Skynet fights back. It 
  launches its missiles against the targets 
  in Russia. Skynet knows that the Russian 
  counterattack will eliminate its enemies 
  over here.
It was an out-growth of the cold war arms race. Nuclear deterrents aren't as much about protection as they are about posturing. Lives aren't quite "saved" by nuclear arsenals.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#156

Post by andai »

edblarney wrote: post #124
shams93 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly we could have a society oriented around the arts and sciences, pure creativity and discovery instead of bullshit jobs we could put the pedal to the metal in human freedom and innovation.

"we could have a society oriented around the arts and sciences, pure creativity and discovery instead of bullshit jobs " I'm afraid your statement implies a misunderstanding of what 'the economy' is. 'The economy' is people providing services and building products for one another. So that guy who waited on you at the restaurant, the girl who did your payroll, the guy who delivered your mail, the person monitoring you…

Most of them can be automated.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#157

Post by dublinben »

lowpro wrote: post #135
wilkommen wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The amount of money someone can make in our economy as an artist isn't a reflection of how much art we "need." Art in particular is not a commodity that society can just have enough of. And in general, the price something fetches in our economy isn't always a reflection of its value to society. See: salaries of social workers, emergency medical technicians, etc.

Everything, including art, follows supply and demand. Value is the point where they meet. Salaries of social works and EMTs are where the supply of those positions meet the need for those positions in any certain area. Art has a defined supply and demand, where the supply is high and demand is low (probably due to the fact you can buy copies of famous masterpieces for very cheap).

What is the value of the Sistene Chapel? How much would it cost to make a second one?

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#158

Post by cnnsucks »

TheSmiddy wrote: post #80
philipkglass wrote: post #43

That threat has many thinkers entertaining the idea of a universal basic income, a guaranteed living wage paid by the government to anyone left out of the workforce. But McAfee believes this would only make the problem worse, because it would eliminate the incentive for entrepreneurship and other activity that could create new jobs as the old ones fade away. Others question the psychological effects of the idea. “A u…

The idea that giving someone just enough money to live will kill their motivation is insane. If that were true why do people still work 40+ hour weeks when they could be earning enough to live on just 15? Most UBI schemes are initially targeting around 1k per month which is nowhere near enough satisfy the vast majority of people.

"why do people still work 40+ hour weeks"

Mostly it's about upbringing. People are taught to have expectations for themselves and they strive to fulfill them. 15h would be bare subsistence for most, and that's not good enough. The minute they can live their expectations without work they usually check out; e.g. 45 year old "retired" government workers bankrupting their muni/county/state with union negotiated pensions.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#159

Post by gdeghtfg »

shams93 wrote: post #45
philipkglass wrote: post #43

That threat has many thinkers entertaining the idea of a universal basic income, a guaranteed living wage paid by the government to anyone left out of the workforce. But McAfee believes this would only make the problem worse, because it would eliminate the incentive for entrepreneurship and other activity that could create new jobs as the old ones fade away. Others question the psychological effects of the idea. “A u…

Exactly we could have a society oriented around the arts and sciences, pure creativity and discovery instead of bullshit jobs we could put the pedal to the metal in human freedom and innovation.

"creativity" in Arts and Sciences (like academia in general) is driven by a silly popularity game.

It is as BS as are lives across the spectrum. Far off mountains appear hospitable indeed.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#160

Post by inderLogging »

bad_user wrote: post #58
problems wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think we're at a peak of mental productivity? For the most part the mental labor we're automating isn't actual mental labor, but physical labor things which are difficult to make a computer do - like drive, cook or stitch.

You haven't been watching the news dude: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603431/as-goldman-embrace... Yay, bring the downvotes, doesn't change the fact that not even our jobs are safe and downvoting such opinions won't make the problem go away - in the future we'll probably build software systems the way we train dogs today! And yes, we'll taste our own medicine :-)

Stock trading and software development aren't tasks I'd rate as difficult mental labor.

In fact, the reason such jobs are desirable, is specifically because they're actually kind of cushy.

Stock trading is a task that has been over-complicated mostly because investors need to engage in double-speak, so that motives for trades that lead to financial gain can be sufficiently obfuscated, when explained to auditors, judges, juries and regulatory officials. Behind the curtain of quants, it's really just a lot of grocery shopping.

Software development is mostly about stacking legos in ornate fashion. Bytes cobble together as building blocks. There are a variety of 256 different building blocks. The computers themselves, the syntax of the code, the methodology of data structures and loops, these aren't the hard parts. It's just plumbing.

Plumbing is probably a similar target of automation.

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