At Davos, IBM Chief Predicts Artificial Intelligence Won’t Be a Job Killer • Hacker News Board

Re: At Davos, IBM Chief Predicts Artificial Intelligence Won’t Be a Job Killer

#151

Post by wott » Tue, Jan 17, 2017, 11:52 PM UTC

tdb7893 wrote: post #126

Pamar wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Manufacturing jobs did not require enormously sophisticated skills (i.e. the equivalent of a PhD) to be performed. So "moving up" or "moving to" the new jobs was still possible. If automated trucks replace 1000 truckers, how many of them will be able to transition to "automated truck programmer"? (And note: they cannot move to "automated truck mechanic" because those jobs are already taken by "non-automated truck mec…

I know individually people are going to have a hard time, that seems pretty obvious. The comment I was responding to was saying that technology was going to lead to less jobs overall and I was just pointing out that each specific technology has led to less jobs overall (otherwise generally the new tech wouldn't be worth it) but the economy as a whole generally creates jobs elsewhere to compensate. I was mainly wonder…

But anyone could transition from farmer/craftsman to factory worker. It needed less skills to repeat a small set of gestures all day long for months and years on an assembly line (being a cog in a machine) than were needed by the craftsman who excelled in his craft (highly skilled in one domain) and by the farmer who had to know and be able to do a bit of everything (not deep, but wide skills).

But for the current/next transition...

Re: At Davos, IBM Chief Predicts Artificial Intelligence Won’t Be a Job Killer

#152

Post by megablast » Tue, Jan 17, 2017, 11:54 PM UTC

serge2k wrote: post #101

vkou wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've rolled out touch screen grocery checkout... Pretty much everywhere over the last decade. My local QFC used to employ a dozen cashiers - now, they employ 4. What jobs have been created by this automation? This certainly didn't create 8 (times the # of stores) jobs for software engineers - otherwise, this wouldn't have been profitable for QFC. Does anyone seriously think that those 8 people went on to do work t…

I hate those self checkout machines. They are slow and constantly try to error out and alert a human to help me. I'm capable of bagging groceries, just let me do it. still, there is rarely a line.

They are incredibly simple to use if you follow the 3 instructions. But hey, people can't even signal when turning reliable, of course a lot of people are going to have problems with these machines.

Re: At Davos, IBM Chief Predicts Artificial Intelligence Won’t Be a Job Killer

#153

Post by bobajeff » Tue, Jan 17, 2017, 11:56 PM UTC

robalfonso wrote: post #88

nickparker wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your analysis is based on shallower automation than we'll actually see. Let's assume your robot arm example is about a frycook at a burger joint. I agree a robot arm isn't an effective way to replace the frycook, but a specialized system like Momentum Machines is developing[1] will be. The automated fast food joint isn't a regular one with robot arms instead of people, it's a box the size of a small office th…

I keep telling people the Mcdonalds of the future isn't going to be the same large box with robots running around - it will be much smaller, because robots can use every inch of the kitchen area unlike humans. I think this also has some interesting implications for real estate long term - if every mcdonalds needs 50% of the space they currently occupy over time that real estate will be put back in the market, multipl…

So basically a vending machine for hamburgers, fries and egg McMuffin's.

Re: At Davos, IBM Chief Predicts Artificial Intelligence Won’t Be a Job Killer

#154

Post by orangutango » Tue, Jan 17, 2017, 11:58 PM UTC

RA_Fisher wrote: post #105

retube wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is the large scale rollout of predictive algorithms really a bigger wave than those that have come previously? No of course it isn't. But because it's called "artificial intelligence" instead of "conditional probability" or "regression" or something people think otherwise. The reality is that this kind of technology will make us more productive, bring down the cost of products and services and make them available t…

It seems like there's significant overlap between people that are afraid of AI and those that think e^x has a "knee in the curve." It's amazing they're not called out considering "the derivative of e^x is e^x" is memorized by HS calculus students daily. - [1] Elon Musk https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/702534707464896512 ? - [2] Kurzweil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near#Expone... - [3] Gates ap…

I like this visual explanation of the illusion/fallacy: http://www.abarry.org/knee.htm

Re: At Davos, IBM Chief Predicts Artificial Intelligence Won’t Be a Job Killer

#155

Post by laughfactory » Wed, Jan 18, 2017, 12:01 AM UTC

funkymike wrote: post #146

VLM wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The restaurant business is all about signalling and having the right people doing the right imaginative artisinal ultra-trendy hand labor. Its very much like the prostitution industry or pr0n. None of those are going to automate any time soon.

There's a big difference between McDonald's and a high end restaurant, even if you just order a hamburger. McDonald's has already been working on automation. Have you noticed that humans no longer dispense drinks there? They are also working on getting rid of the human order takers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34T3IkAtOrc&ab_channel=McDon... For restaurants where one of the main draws is price I think automation…

Agreed. There will probably always be specialty and high end restaurants, where it's more about the experience (in some way). If you want mass produced, a robot is great for that. But they're not so great for limited runs. Which is to say that general purpose robots (for any application) are a long way off.

I think we'll adapt as a race, but it'll be mighty uncomfortable for some (say those reliant on low skilled jobs, truck drivers, fast food workers, etc.). It's not to say that the way things will get done will even look the same as the transition occurs. I suspect many things will look different. For instance, rather than speaking your order to a person at McDonald's, you make your selections from a menu and a machine creates it, and then you pick it up and take it back to your table. Redbox already does this for movie rental. Think about how they've changed what we expect of renting movies... Same for home construction, particularly of the cookie cutter variety. Rather than a crew of people going through the motions to excavate a hole, lay a foundation, frame the house, put up drywall, paint, etc., Maybe it'll just be 3D printed with a huge machine (this tech actually exists, if in its infancy). Or maybe we'll switch to brick houses because they make brick laying robots (not humanoid, more like boxes which can move around). The next decade or two will be interesting!

Re: At Davos, IBM Chief Predicts Artificial Intelligence Won’t Be a Job Killer

#156

Post by wott » Wed, Jan 18, 2017, 12:01 AM UTC

wtvanhest wrote: post #56

josho wrote: post #3

This is all you need to read from the article: > Advances in artificial intelligence will lead to job losses, but new forms of employment will take their place...History, though, has demonstrated that technological breakthroughs lead to new employment opportunities -- IBM CEO Ginni Rometty But, I think we are approaching (if we haven't already crossed this point) the time where new jobs created by technology advancem…

Instagram is an amazing example. > My example here is Instagram, a company of a dozen staff or so when acquired, is the digital replacement of photo labs in every city. New technologies are not the job creator that they once were and I haven't read anything to contradict that statement or posit that new tech is going to drive jobs growth. Photo labs (places where physical photos were developed and edited) were replac…

> Photo labs (places where physical photos were developed and edited) were replaced by digital post processing.

Not at all. The mass of work was not done for professionals, but for the mass market. And that one totally disappeared, almost nobody gets photos developed any more compared to hundreds of millions (billions ?) of people before. Of course it was already automated, but now there is isn't anyone left to feed the machine, to check the result, to send the photos or deliver them at the desk, since even the machines are gone...

Re: At Davos, IBM Chief Predicts Artificial Intelligence Won’t Be a Job Killer

#157

Post by michaelbuckbee » Wed, Jan 18, 2017, 12:18 AM UTC

VLM wrote: post #140

6d6b73 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The tech has been here for more than a decade. Why don't restaurants do this?" I'm in automation, so maybe I can answer this. Small businesses don't have necessary capital to implement automation solutions. While they know that in a long term this would be good idea, they have a hard time doing it. Large corporations are slower to implement any major change, and sometimes they are limited by contracts they have with…

The restaurant business is all about signalling and having the right people doing the right imaginative artisinal ultra-trendy hand labor. Its very much like the prostitution industry or pr0n. None of those are going to automate any time soon.

I think you're absolutely correct. A good example in the context of this discussion is pizza places with conveyor belt ovens: they take the timing and risk issues out of the hands of their minimum wage workforce.

But high end pizza places still don't use them and instead rely on stone / brick / coal pizza ovens instead.

Re: At Davos, IBM Chief Predicts Artificial Intelligence Won’t Be a Job Killer

#158

Post by bogomipz » Wed, Jan 18, 2017, 12:20 AM UTC

robalfonso wrote: post #88

nickparker wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your analysis is based on shallower automation than we'll actually see. Let's assume your robot arm example is about a frycook at a burger joint. I agree a robot arm isn't an effective way to replace the frycook, but a specialized system like Momentum Machines is developing[1] will be. The automated fast food joint isn't a regular one with robot arms instead of people, it's a box the size of a small office th…

I keep telling people the Mcdonalds of the future isn't going to be the same large box with robots running around - it will be much smaller, because robots can use every inch of the kitchen area unlike humans. I think this also has some interesting implications for real estate long term - if every mcdonalds needs 50% of the space they currently occupy over time that real estate will be put back in the market, multipl…

>"I keep telling people the McDonalds of the future isn't going to be the same large box with robots running around - it will be much smaller, because robots can use every inch of the kitchen area unlike humans."

The majority of space in a McDonalds is the dining area and ordering counter area These areas are occupied by customers. The kitchens in a McDonalds is already pretty compact and dense.

Re: At Davos, IBM Chief Predicts Artificial Intelligence Won’t Be a Job Killer

#159

Post by iwlbebnd » Wed, Jan 18, 2017, 12:40 AM UTC

kbenson wrote: post #50

Houshalter wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this time it is different. I like the comparison to horses. Steam engines and trains threatened to replace horses in the mid 1800s. A lot of things that were previously done by horses were replaced with trains and steam engines. Yet the horse population grew, and cities remained full of horses. There were countless transportation innovations in the 1800s, from canals to streetcars and omnibuses to bicycles. But…

Horses are tools that people used. When there's no more use for the tool, it's usage may be reduces. People are not just tools, they are the reason we have an economy in the first place. A solution in some form will have to be put forth if one doesn't emerge. Another way of looking at this is that we weren't ever under threat of millions of displaced horses rising up and overthrowing the system. Since that is a possi…

Ah but technology, specifically the technological process may make tools of us yet.

Heidegger's question concerning technology is essential reading, but his basic argument is the technological process subordinates all others to be ends to itself. Notice how people don't so much adapt technology to their needs as adjust their needs to the available technology.

Re: At Davos, IBM Chief Predicts Artificial Intelligence Won’t Be a Job Killer

#160

Post by pbalau » Wed, Jan 18, 2017, 1:08 AM UTC

Pamar wrote: post #131

pbalau wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please try to not dismiss my question, but what skills does a truck driver have that can't be learned in a couple of weeks? On the other side, I agree with the manufacturing comment. There is a British documentary about building steam locomotives on Youtube. Watch what the skilled workers do, they just move things from side to side so a machine can do the hard work. Hell, I can learn to do that in a week.

I am not dismissing it, but I don't see your point. Yes, to become a truck driver your basic qualification is "driving license" (for trucks, if your country treats it differently from driving cars). You may have extra skills, e.g. a foreign language would help you qualify for driving across the border, maybe, but it is not required. So when your main/only skill is "driving a truck" what can you pick up as a new job w…

The point is that at the moment we will replace all truck driving jobs in US, we are not going to replace 3.5 million individual workers, with skills that took a life to master, but 3.5 million jobs that a big slice of the 7 billion humans could learn to do in a couple of weeks (let's not start a debate about how far away we are from actually starting to have automatic trucks...). I don't see the point of feeling bad for these people loosing their jobs. As I don't feel bad for all the breakers that were put out of a job by the invention of air brakes (did you know that US railways took forever - and many casualties - to adopt air brakes, because they didn't want to fire breakers?)

Reading and writing where a skill at some point. So was driving. But at this point, they are necessities (maybe not driving, if you live in a civilized country). We shouldn't keep jobs around just because some people really can't do anything else. I'm not saying that we shouldn't find a way for these people to live, but keeping them employed in jobs that hold humanity back, just because, is beyond stupid.