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The Risk of Discovery

paulgraham.com

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Re: The Risk of Discovery

#151

Post by openasocket »

hueving wrote: post #148
nocman wrote: post #143

"Physics seems to us a promising thing to work on, and alchemy and theology obvious wastes of time." I'm not sure which "us" pg is referring to, but the essay gives me the impression that he meant something like "most people" (I could be reading him wrong, but that was my impression). Alchemy is obviously a waste of time -- I won't dispute that, and I suspect that "most people" would agree with that assertion. Being…

50 shades of gray was also a best selling book. However, I think most of the readers recognize that studying it is not going to advance technology/science in any way.

Replace 50 shades of gray with Hemingway or Shakespeare. Studying Shakespeare isn't going to advance technology or science, but it could advance art, which is a noble human endeavor, as is science.

Re: The Risk of Discovery

#152

Post by elefanten »

nocman wrote: post #143

"Physics seems to us a promising thing to work on, and alchemy and theology obvious wastes of time." I'm not sure which "us" pg is referring to, but the essay gives me the impression that he meant something like "most people" (I could be reading him wrong, but that was my impression). Alchemy is obviously a waste of time -- I won't dispute that, and I suspect that "most people" would agree with that assertion. Being…

I read the "us" to mean something ranging from "readers of this blog" to "elite tech/science people". Wherever it lands between those two, his assumption that serious academic or ideological interest in theology among that audience is in the minority (and declining over time) seems fair.

Re: The Risk of Discovery

#153

Post by ajuc »

nocman wrote: post #143

"Physics seems to us a promising thing to work on, and alchemy and theology obvious wastes of time." I'm not sure which "us" pg is referring to, but the essay gives me the impression that he meant something like "most people" (I could be reading him wrong, but that was my impression). Alchemy is obviously a waste of time -- I won't dispute that, and I suspect that "most people" would agree with that assertion. Being…

If you go by number of sold copies astrology is still going strong. Doesn't mean it's good.

Re: The Risk of Discovery

#154

Post by nocman »

hueving wrote: post #148
nocman wrote: post #143

"Physics seems to us a promising thing to work on, and alchemy and theology obvious wastes of time." I'm not sure which "us" pg is referring to, but the essay gives me the impression that he meant something like "most people" (I could be reading him wrong, but that was my impression). Alchemy is obviously a waste of time -- I won't dispute that, and I suspect that "most people" would agree with that assertion. Being…

50 shades of gray was also a best selling book. However, I think most of the readers recognize that studying it is not going to advance technology/science in any way.

There's a big difference between "a best selling book", and "the most widely distributed and best-selling book in the world."

And I was not addressing whether people think that studying the Bible advances technology/science, but whether people think that studying theology is "crazy" or a "waste of time".

Re: The Risk of Discovery

#155

Post by rudolf0 »

whack wrote: post #110
oskarth wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for reading and commenting with good faith and a, as far as I can tell, correct historical frame in mind. As opposed to with some literalist naive and/or hostile, contemporary-navel-gazing nonsense that is completely missing the point of the essay. For more thinking in a similar direction, see Nassim Taleb's excerpt on the Lindy effect ( https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146e... ), whe…

" If you hear advice from a grandmother or elders, odds are that it works at ninety percent. On the other hand, in part because of scientism and academic prostitution, in part because the world is hard, if you read anything by psychologists and behavioral scientists, odds are it works at less than ten percent " Some of my favorite books of all time were Taleb's, but I have to say, his writing is the perfect demonstra…

Why are you using ℅ ("care of") instead of % ("percent")?

Re: The Risk of Discovery

#156

Post by graeham »

So what's the take-away? Make many high risk bets in hoping one will pay off?

Newton is an exception as well. While his biographers down-play his failures, he is also credited (at least in High School Physics) with things that were the work of dozens or even hundreds of scientists - or giants you might say.

Re: The Risk of Discovery

#157

Post by gcb0 »

tbabb wrote: post #129
jat850 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theology is the study of religion or things supernatural, not necessarily tied to a practice in any belief.

How can you study the properties of something you don't believe exists? Edit: People are downvoting this, but I genuinely want to know how "theology is the study of supernatural things" and "theology does not rely on belief in the supernatural" are not in complete contradiction.

if you truly want to understand the mind of who say they have any believes, read le noir et le rouge from stendhal. (might have the color in the wrong order).

but that novel pretty much describe all my theological friends. as much as they cry in denial.

Re: The Risk of Discovery

#158

Post by gizmo »

abakker wrote: post #133
gizmo wrote: post #88

For people who wonder why YC and pg are okay with some of Peter Thiel's more extreme behavior, this is why. It's pretty interesting that pg describes the possible outcomes of contrarian ideas as either positive for society or merely a waste of time. Even though the pursuit of risky and contrarian ideas can also be hugely harmful for society.

There was a good discussion related to this yesterday on Dr. Michael Burry. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13374573 Interesting discussions about reasonable risks, even when we know in hindsight that the outcomes were good.

Interesting discussion, although I disagree with the conclusion.

I don't think betting the house on a single event is "insane". Businesses make these all-in bets all the time and we're fine with it. Every Hollywood blockbuster is also a billion dollar all-in bet, but nobody bats an eye at that either. Individuals bet a huge percentage of their net worth when they buy a house. Yet when a person invests a large amount of their net worth in a single stock it's suddenly irresponsible? Hogwash.

The way we perceive risk in society is extraordinarily polarized. Some moderately risky behavior is considered normal, and other moderately risky behavior is deemed "insane". I don't think there is any rhyme or reason to it; just a matter of arbitrary cultural norms.

Re: The Risk of Discovery

#159

Post by omarchowdhury »

all_usernames wrote: post #136
tbabb wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you study the properties of something you don't believe exists? Edit: People are downvoting this, but I genuinely want to know how "theology is the study of supernatural things" and "theology does not rely on belief in the supernatural" are not in complete contradiction.

You've stumbled upon one of the most profound spiritual questions there is.

How is that a spiritual question? More skeptical.

Re: The Risk of Discovery

#160

Post by omarchowdhury »

gdubs wrote: post #100

"I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed." - Michael Jordan

Which basketball player has not missed a shot, has not lost a game, hasn't missed game winning shots?

Did they all become like Michael Jordan?

Failure may be on the path to success, but failure does not guarantee success.

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