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Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

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Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#151

Post by aaronbrethorst »

tajen wrote: post #129
microtonal wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that how Europe is governed? I think any country should be allowed to leave without condescending comments by anyone. I think people can handle condescending comments. The problem is that you cannot reap the benefits without paying dues, which is what the Brexit camp promised. It's in the interest of the remaining EU members to make this clear, or the whole union will crumble. It's likely that this will throw back…

> ...without paying the dues, which is what the Brexit camp promised This assumes the voters are gullible. But what if they are grown-ups who didn't literally believe Johnson, and made a decision based on rational arguments, would you accept it? Examples: - What if, for example, voters wanted fewer immigration at all costs, and what if their elites refused to give them a referendum on this topic? Then they may decent…

They were gullible. They were told that NHS would be better funded after brexit than before, among other lies.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#152

Post by monk_e_boy »

alva wrote: post #127
kalleboo wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They have one of the strictest set of immigration policies in the world [citation needed] My experience is that Japan has very permissive immigration for skilled labor (anyone with a college degree) or social ties (marriage). Far more so than e.g. the USA or Europe. They just don't have a green card lottery for unskilled labor (like the US) or open borders for refugees (like Europe).

The numbers speak for themselves http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/nenkan/1431-02.htm Section 2-14 http://www.dir.co.jp/english/research/report/others/20150529... But you are right, I should have said first-world countries, I am not familiar with developing countries policies. Compared to the US and Europe, Japan's immigration policy is far stricter (and sensible as you state for skilled labour) and a significant dr…

> A large number of those in support of Brexit wish to have a similar approach.

They wanted control. The EU didn't allow that and there was no negotiation about it.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#153

Post by yummyfajitas »

davidf18 wrote: post #138
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think May and the Cabinet do. All the noises seem to suggest the real priority is xenophobia - i.e. immigration. ...Which is a purely political strategy to capture the continued support of leave voters - exactly the people whose lives will be destroyed when trade dries up. The problem is that the typical leave voter understands immigration because they have direct personal experience of immigrants. But leave…

The issue with immigration is not xenophobia but economic as Economist Branko Milanovic (and perhaps others) have been pointing out since 2012. Milanovic's now famous "Elephant Curve" shows that the working or middle class in developed countries have seen no wage growth in 20 years. Part of that effect is from exporting jobs to China, Mexico (for US), Eastern Europe (for Europe) and part of that is from importing uns…

In the US the reason the middle class has had no wage growth is NOT because immigrants have hindered wage growth. The reason is simply because immigrants lower the averages simply by being included in statistics.

In the US, most people with American parents have higher income than their parents did (in their 30's). This is true for all quintiles except maybe the top 20%.

http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/uploadedfiles/wwwpew... Figure 1

http://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/alfresco/publicatio... Figure 5

Yet when we look at cross sectional statistics (rather than longitudinal ones), income (though not compensation) has remained flat.

The way to square these two facts together is that George Jr. has a higher income at 30 than George Sr. did, but the average of George Jr. and Jose Jr. has lower income at 30 than George Sr. did.

Jose Sr. is excluded from the cross-sectional statistics since he lived in Mexico in his 30's.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#154

Post by 1wd »

Create wrote: post #130
1wd wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Swiss still try to find a compromise that is compatible with free movement. http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/immigration-vote-_sommaruga-admi...

freedom of movement shall entail the abolition of any discrimination based on nationality between workers of the Member States as regards employment, remuneration and other conditions of work and employment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_for_worker...

As I understand it, even though the "informal proposal" is about "prioritising local workers over foreign ones" the actual proposal only requires informing the regional unemployment offices of open jobs, which might(?) not violate freedom of movement.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#155

Post by tajen »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #151
tajen wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ...without paying the dues, which is what the Brexit camp promised This assumes the voters are gullible. But what if they are grown-ups who didn't literally believe Johnson, and made a decision based on rational arguments, would you accept it? Examples: - What if, for example, voters wanted fewer immigration at all costs, and what if their elites refused to give them a referendum on this topic? Then they may decent…

They were gullible. They were told that NHS would be better funded after brexit than before, among other lies.

You think 52% of the UK voters are gullible?

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#156

Post by davidf18 »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #153
davidf18 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue with immigration is not xenophobia but economic as Economist Branko Milanovic (and perhaps others) have been pointing out since 2012. Milanovic's now famous "Elephant Curve" shows that the working or middle class in developed countries have seen no wage growth in 20 years. Part of that effect is from exporting jobs to China, Mexico (for US), Eastern Europe (for Europe) and part of that is from importing uns…

In the US the reason the middle class has had no wage growth is NOT because immigrants have hindered wage growth. The reason is simply because immigrants lower the averages simply by being included in statistics. In the US, most people with American parents have higher income than their parents did (in their 30's). This is true for all quintiles except maybe the top 20%. http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/upload…

> In the US the reason the middle class has had no wage growth is NOT because immigrants have hindered wage growth. The reason is simply because immigrants lower the averages simply by existing.

It is probably for both reasons, but certainly immigrants that have low education compete with Americans who have low education for jobs and they do drive down wage growth. This is not my opinion. It is economics.

The issue is that proportion of both US and UK populations that are immigrants. Since 1970 in the US we have gone from 1 in 20 to 1 in 6 or 7 who are immigrants, most who are low-skilled.

It would have been wiser and more fair to the American working class to have kept the proportion of 1 in 20.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#157

Post by gsnedders »

m0nty wrote: post #103
wuschel wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand, thanks for elaborating on that matter. In a way, a clean way to do it would to be a call for elections, and a proper mandate - either to stay in, or stay out. But that might not happen, considering the nature of the political game. I agree about the reasons to worry, and to have a proper discussion. Things tend to get out of hand sometimes when it comes to media.

> a clean way to do it would to be a call for elections Absolutely, but the weakness of the opposition Labour party and the near-annihilation of the Liberal Democrats at the last election mean (as things stand) it's mostly a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives will win. So to their way of looking at things, they will have two mandates to leave. It's an extraordinary situation, though. I said to my son on the m…

The Labour situation probably also makes it unlikely for it to be plausible to call for elections, as to call an early election in the simplest way requires a 2/3rds majority of the House in favour (i.e., 431 votes, 101 seats more than the Tories hold). The alternative, which the Tories in principle could do alone, is pass a motion of no confidence in the Government, wait two weeks, and then the House falls to an election (this assumes that all Tories would vote as a block, thereby making it impossible for a motion of confidence to be passed in those two week).

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#158

Post by Create »

1wd wrote: post #154
Create wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

freedom of movement shall entail the abolition of any discrimination based on nationality between workers of the Member States as regards employment, remuneration and other conditions of work and employment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_for_worker...

As I understand it, even though the "informal proposal" is about "prioritising local workers over foreign ones" the actual proposal only requires informing the regional unemployment offices of open jobs, which might(?) not violate freedom of movement.

The issue is the following:

In February 2014, the Swiss voted in a referendum to introduce quotas for all migrants in Switzerland. The referendum, which requires Switzerland to have annual quotas for immigrants, does not take effect immediately but requires the Swiss government to implement a quota system within three years.

Nothing to do with regional unemployment offices.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#159

Post by mpweiher »

gpderetta wrote: post #133
mpweiher wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>trade with other countries was strictly forbidden. Huh? All EU countries trade with countries outside the EU all the time.

Sarcasm, obviously.

Now that you mention it. Alas, with the level of discourse on this topic it's sometimes hard to tell :-)

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#160

Post by aaronbrethorst »

tajen wrote: post #155
aaronbrethorst wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They were gullible. They were told that NHS would be better funded after brexit than before, among other lies.

You think 52% of the UK voters are gullible?

I'd argue that enough were to give Leave the win. 37% of British people saw health care as one of the most important issues facing the UK in a June survey[1], and better health care was one of the key issues pushed by the Vote Leave campaign.

[1] https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharch...

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