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Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

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Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#151

Post by ascagnel_ »

bane wrote: post #143
cstross wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple hasn't shipped a successful new product line since Steve Jobs' death I disagree. The Apple Watch is only "unsuccessful" using a yardstick calibrated to the scale of existing Apple product lines -- in its first year it appears to have achieved sales revenue on the same order as Rolex ($4.7Bn, per Forbes). (Apple's secretiveness makes it hard to tell how many Watches they've sold, but the low estimates are in t…

> and the high end estimate -- 12 million shipped through 2015 What's interesting is that if you think of the Watch in terms of it being a computing platform, 12 million devices shipped might be considered a bad sign. Sega had two back-to-back systems that shipped in that League (the Saturn shipped 9.26 million and Dreamcast shipped 9.13 million) and both systems are considered massive commercial failures, so bad tha…

That's an estimated 12MM watches in the first 8 months, which is a good start. The game console numbers are lifetime sales, so the numbers aren't really comparable.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#153

Post by gambiting »

refurb wrote: post #61
elchief wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla makes 25% margin on their cars.

I find that shocking. They are using new/expensive technology, high quality parts and low volume production methods and they are making a higher margin than a company like BMW or GM who have the benefit of scale and ability to squeeze suppliers? Not saying your number is wrong, I'm just really surprised.

BMW or Mercedes make million different models of their vehicles. Some of them make a lot of money, some of them are probably losing money and always will - M or AMG products are very expensive, but they sell relatively few cars every year - their brands keep those cars to be leaders in their sectors, not because there's a huge amount of money to be made on them(good example of that is the Veyron made by the VW group - VW said that they will never make profit on that car, despite it costing over $1 million USD, because the research to make it was so costly. The only reason it exists and you can buy one is so that VW can say they make the fastest car in the world).

Tesla on the other hand, makes 3 models, they are not trying to cater to every single market, so they can afford the focus and very high profit margins that come with it.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#154

Post by dagw »

darawk wrote: post #16

Is this a surprise? Isn't it well known that Apple is working on a car? I think the big question here is not are they working on a car, but can they deliver a car that represents a significant improvement over what's out there. And that i'm highly skeptical of, unless they deliver full autonomy. But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology. So, I agree they're working on a car…

Isn't it well known that Apple is working on a car?

Is it? It is well known that they are hiring bunch of engineers with automotive industry backgrounds and are working on something related to cars. However I've also heard from friends in the industry that they're not really hiring people with backgrounds related to building actual car chassis.

I think the jury is still out on whether there will actually be an Apple car (as opposed to an Apple (co-)branded car full of Apple tech).

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#155

Post by matwood »

abalone wrote: post #78
bendbro wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know people have said this before and been very wrong for it, but I just don't think there's much in those constraints to innovate (read Blackberry). Unless you change the only fundamental aspects of owning a car (driving, parking, and maintenance), all you're doing is polishing a turd. If Apple is just building the car, and fully autonomous transport is out of the picture, then all they can hope to do is make it e…

You mentioned Blackberry. Pre-iPhone, the world probably would have said there isn't much you can do to innovate on smartphones. They will always need keyboards so the screen has to be small, etc. With cars I want to underscore what I said about a "10X" improvement in safety and convenience. That is not just polishing a turd. What does it take to actually get to a car that largely drives itself, on myriad roads and c…

One of the biggest innovations around the iPhone was the unlimited data plan and removing phone control from the carriers. IMHO, that is what changed everything. People could get a smart phone AND finally use it. SJ basically willed the change onto the phone industry. Does Apple have a personality who can do something similar again?

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#156

Post by CPLX »

vlehto wrote: post #149
CPLX wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology. Why? Apple is possibly the world's most effective company at synthesizing industrial design and software in premium devices sold to consumers. Google is a web/cloud services and advertising company. The reason presumably is that you can't see what Apple is doing in public, while Google has a car that still can't drive itself in t…

If you say that Apple has more relevant experience, then why doesn't Audi, BMW, Daimler, Ford, GM, Google, Kia, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Renault, Tesla, or Toyota beat them both? All of these have more relevant experience than either Google or Apple, because industrial design is not really what car is about.

I would say the chances of one of those companies you mentioned being more successful than both Apple and Google are extraordinarily high. Nothing in your statement conflicts with mine.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#157

Post by ZenoArrow »

DannyBee wrote: post #104
ori_b wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The first would be quite concerning. If you have companies with large research budgets, and they have no idea what they should spend money on in order to make the next big thing happen, that does not bode well. Why doesn't it bode well? The transistor, the laser, Unix, information theory, and a giant number of other things which form the underpinnings of modern technology came out of Bell Labs, which is the epitome…

"Why doesn't it bode well?" For investors, i meant. " The transistor, the laser, Unix, information theory, and a giant number of other things which form the underpinnings of modern technology came out of Bell Labs, which is the epitome of a place with a large research budget and no specific "next thing to monetize" that the spending was directed towards." That was research for research's sake. It was, explicitly, not…

> "That was research for research's sake. It was, explicitly, not directed at ever making money, but instead, advancing the state of the art."

Advancing the state of the art can lead to making more money, the research results can be monetised, whether they are or not all depends on the intent of those leading the particular institution.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#158

Post by Toenex »

estefan wrote: post #108
brandonmenc wrote: post #92

They are not working on "just a car." They are trying to become a mass transit provider by owning and operating a large fleet of those self-driving cars, renting them out on a per-ride basis. That is, if they're smart.

Yeah the future of cars is not owning one. Cities don't need more individual car ownership.

> Yeah the future of cars is not owning one.

I think it is more "The future of cars is not _everyone_ owning one." The point is that most cars spend most of their time sat, parked waiting for a single user who is also usually the owner. This is inefficient. I'd rather the car I owned was out earning money while I'm sleeping/working and available just when I need it.

Uber has the right idea, and those that own cars will become part of their network.

Two other industries I see impacted; car parks - my car doesn't need to remain near me; home delivery - thanks, I'll send the car to pick it.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#159

Post by jimmytidey »

Isn't it basically impossible for Apple to surprise us with a driverless car? Surely all of the process to make a driverless car legal would be in public?

Surely the production line for any kind of car at all would be almost impossible to organise covertly, all the factory space, tooling etc?

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#160

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

simonh wrote: post #144
astrodust wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just imagine how much fun Ive would have designing an orbital space station. What's interesting is how aggressively they're moving into the car space if that's what's happening. The phone people had no idea, they got blindsided thinking Apple wouldn't have the guts, would never commit the money.

I think the phone industry just didn't think it possible that real ground breaking innovation in their industry was at all possible. They imagined a phone must have a physical keyboard, couldn't run a decent web browser and Microsoft was already selling the best mobile OS it was possible to make. It wasn't that they doubted Apple's commitment, they just didn't have the imagination. To be fair to them, Apple timed thi…

Cars are a terrible industry to get into. Building cars is massively capital and plant intensive, heavily dependent on supply chain logistics, and the market is already extremely competitive. The entire industry is well on its way to switching to electric and/or self-driving.

Selling cars requires a huge dealer network rollout with huge up-front costs for training and spares. Doing it DIY would be insanely expensive, and persuading existing dealers to sign up for a franchise is going to be a tough sell considering Apple's historical treatment of resellers.

Apple under Jobs certainly had the imagination to make a good phone - but the phone industry was always fairly crappy, with very clever internals but mediocre UX.

I don't see much reason to think that Apple under Cook has the imagination to break open the car industry in the same way. The possible competitive differentials are much smaller, and Cook isn't the most creative CEO Apple has had.

If the USP is that Car is electric, looks pretty, and may eventually have some self-driving features - that won't be anywhere close to enough. It's going to need to have some wow to get taken seriously, and even if Jobs were alive and in charge there's limited wow space available.

Of course if it flies and/or teleports, that would be something else.

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