Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed • Hacker News Board

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#151

Post by blowski » Wed, May 11, 2016, 5:05 PM UTC

tluyben2 wrote: post #127

rsync wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Seriously, it's like any other city in the world. If you walk around a dodgy area talking on an iPhone, by yourself, especially late at night, then you're asking for trouble. Be sensible and cautious, and Rio is a lovely place to go on holiday." I generally espouse this view ... that being sensible and street smart are the important parts to visiting different cities and that, in general, they are all fairly safe. H…

Shanghai feels incredibly safe and i've walked around in a lot of places where my colleagues thought it was dodgy (it wasn't; just poorer). I have not one time felt unsafe in Shanghai and I go there a lot. That's quite different from say, Fort Lauderdale, which was the first time in many years I really felt threatened when we stupidly went to a very dodgy gas station. Actually that was second time in that same busine…

In my experience, a lot of Brazilians talk about crime in the same way that the British talk about the weather. There are more dodgy areas in Sao Paulo than there are in London, and what happens in those dodgy areas is dodgier than what happens in the dodgy areas of London. But the safe areas still dominate the city, and it's worth going to see them.

Stay out of the dodgy areas, don't walk the streets by yourself at night, and avoid standing out. I was there last month, I got buses, had lunch in a typical Brazilian cafe, went to the coach station. No problems.

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#152

Post by wamsachel » Wed, May 11, 2016, 5:07 PM UTC

samstave wrote: post #150

ChicagoBoy11 wrote: post #45

This article is idiotic if the main reason for cancelling the game is actually some "global spread" of Zika. Rio is not some city in the middle of nowhere from which no flights are coming in and out of, and now suddenly this massive international influx of visitors will come in -- it is a world-class city, a financial hub of the largest country in the continent. If we take London 2012 as a benchmark, estimates there…

Ill panic once Madaagascar closes its ports.

port

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#153

Post by bo1024 » Wed, May 11, 2016, 5:09 PM UTC

ChicagoBoy11 wrote: post #45

This article is idiotic if the main reason for cancelling the game is actually some "global spread" of Zika. Rio is not some city in the middle of nowhere from which no flights are coming in and out of, and now suddenly this massive international influx of visitors will come in -- it is a world-class city, a financial hub of the largest country in the continent. If we take London 2012 as a benchmark, estimates there…

I think claims as strong and vehement as yours ("hogwash") should be backed up more and better than in your post.

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#154

Post by oscardelben » Wed, May 11, 2016, 5:11 PM UTC

ramon wrote: post #103

fllr wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not that I don't agree with you... I do. But, being brazilian, the idea of walking around at any time with my iphone out makes me cringe. I love my country, and I think everyone should visit it, but just keep away your iphones and anything of value while walking about, and you'll be fine!

I keep on walking around with my iPhone everywhere in Rio, so has my wife. Never been stolen! I use it everywhere, it's my only phone. Maybe it's because I'm a big guy, the thiefs might be afraid to steal a big guy? but what about my wife, she's tiny.

This is not how statistics work. You can't generalize from just your personal experience.

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#155

Post by Ensorceled » Wed, May 11, 2016, 5:14 PM UTC

untog wrote: post #131

VLM wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So sending an even larger influx into an outbreak is good... why exactly? Its like arguing that some subset of people drive drunk right now, therefore it would be a great idea if more people would drive drunk this summer.

No, it's like arguing that some people get into car accidents, so more people driving is a bad idea.

Yes. It's why that argument is made about airport security all the time, for instance by BloomBerg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-11-18/airport-se...

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#156

Post by 15155 » Wed, May 11, 2016, 5:14 PM UTC

HillaryBriss wrote: post #146

15155 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They should just add some more laws, that will clearly solve the problem!

Pass new important law Hold press conference about it and pat self on back Fail to enforce the law uniformly -- or at all Shield politically-favored violators of law Get re-elected because you're tough on crime Society remains unchanged

"Law abiding citizens are disarmed, crime increases"

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#157

Post by mbreese » Wed, May 11, 2016, 5:15 PM UTC

EGreg wrote: post #29

mbreese wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine the potential global financial impact of all of the visitors (and athletes) contracting Zika and bring that home with them to spread. Tough call...

Why is the FINANCIAL impact the biggest one to be considered?

Because the parent comment asked one to consider the financial impact to Rio if the games were cancelled/boycotted. Nothing more...

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#158

Post by elif » Wed, May 11, 2016, 5:15 PM UTC

soneca wrote: post #147

elif wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those numbers aren't particularly compelling, especially for the countries the author listed as not having the resources to deal with an outbreak: Nigeria: 265 India: 4,522 Indonesia: 0

Considering the number of olympic athletes from these countries, what evidence there is that these numbers will increase?

There's a good point. The number of visitors from those countries actually remained typical or declined in London for 2012. It is conceivable that the increased hotel and airfare costs actually deter travel from poorer countries.

http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/number-international-visit...

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#159

Post by SilasX » Wed, May 11, 2016, 5:22 PM UTC

untog wrote: post #131

VLM wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So sending an even larger influx into an outbreak is good... why exactly? Its like arguing that some subset of people drive drunk right now, therefore it would be a great idea if more people would drive drunk this summer.

No, it's like arguing that some people get into car accidents, so more people driving is a bad idea.

Devil's advocate: I think the argument is that the damage of the disease is disproportional to the people exposed, because the increased pairs of interactions are what can make it spread fast.

So doubling the number of people congregated in Rio won't just double the danger, but quadruple it. If car accidents obeyed a similar dynamic -- where they increase (much) more than proportionally to the number of vehicle-miles driven, we should be similarly more cautious about additional drivers.

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#160

Post by saint_fiasco » Wed, May 11, 2016, 5:22 PM UTC

ramon wrote: post #119

ceejayoz wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You presumably open your door at times, or even go outside. Access to hospitals is irrelevant. @mhurron pointed out these diseases can often present as a mild cold, for which you'd never go to the hospital. You may well have gotten them without really noticing.

This is a statement from someone that doesn't know Zika really, Zika the person feels really sick and feels their joints hurt a lot, is not like this is something that can go by without noticing! This is a really a statement from someone that doesn't understand what's Zika, people that don't understand what it's and what are the symptoms.

If Zika is similar to dengue, then only some people get those symptoms. Other people just feel something like they have influenza without the sneezes and the runny nose.

Those diseases spread easily precisely because many people have it and don't stay home with mosquito net and repellents. They just go on with their lives, transmitting the disease to other people who may be more vulnerable and have worse symptoms.