Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing • Hacker News Board

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#141

Post by snowwrestler » Wed, Apr 29, 2015, 8:45 PM UTC

PublicEnemy111 wrote: post #43

I think the writing is on the wall for Twitter. The younger generations are increasingly flocking to snapchat, yik yak, and similar apps. I never hear of anyone using it anymore(college student here). I would have stopped facebook a while back as well if I didn't use OAuth for damn near everything

I think Twitter and Snapchat/Yik Yak are in different industries.

Snapchat and Yik Yak are messaging applications, so they attract kids and friends who want to communicate with one another privately. Problem is, messaging apps don't seem to be revenue generators anymore.

Because Tweets are all public and searchable, I would argue that Twitter is a publishing platform. They attract content producers who want public attention: press, celebrities, politicians, brands, etc.--and the audiences who want to hear from these folks. So they should be able to drive a lot of revenue from ads.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#142

Post by cft » Wed, Apr 29, 2015, 9:48 PM UTC

alphapapa wrote: post #107

themagician wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Twitter, Facebook, Google+, Snapchat, Instagram, Whatsapp, etc… they are all just iterations of the same basic things: messaging, file (photo) sharing, identify, news. The writing is on the wall from inception. The value is in the community, but community is amorphous and not really ownable or defendable. The only real difference I've noticed in the last, lets say 15 years, is that people have grown up with things no…

I think your comment is quite insightful. Just think about how many times instant messaging has shifted from one most-popular platform to another. IRC, ICQ, AIM, MSN, Skype...SMS?...Facebook?...WhatsApp? It's just a constant shift from one service to the next. Obviously this cycling will continue forever. Therefore it would seem unwise to invest in any one platform too heavily, if at all--as a user or an investor.

Skype - was released in 2003, and is very popular among teens 12 years later. These users were 2 years old when Skype was released.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#143

Post by wutbrodo » Wed, Apr 29, 2015, 11:20 PM UTC

needhelpplz wrote: post #93

wutbrodo wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way stock prices work is that the price of a company's stock (or more relevantly, the price*num_shares) incorporates their current earnings as well as their potential future profits (which is driven by the company's forecasted growth). Updates on how the company is actually performing (e.g. earnings releases) are a chance to get concrete information that allows everyone to update their expectations of future grow…

who sets these expectation numbers, how do they get it and why can't normal investors arrive at the same numbers? isn't it possible that some number can be purposefully influenced so that the stock will go up upon announcement?

> who sets these expectation numbers, how do they get it and why can't normal investors arrive at the same numbers?

I'm not quite sure what you're asking here: "Normal" investors can and do set these numbers. Every time you buy or sell a share of stock at a given price, you're adding your (tiny) signal of what you think the price should be (and nudging it a little in that direction as well). The price of the stock reflects the aggregate of the millions of these little guesses.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#144

Post by dredmorbius » Thu, Apr 30, 2015, 12:19 AM UTC

blumkvist wrote: post #123

dredmorbius wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's motivate for a content syndication alternative. https://cabalamat.wordpress.com/2009/01/27/a-broadband-tax-f... Advertising is a net negative on far too many fronts.

People don't want ads. People don't want to pay for content. I think people shouldn't feel entitiled to content

Information goods don't play well with markets for multiple reasons.

"Paul Romer on Information Goods" https://www.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/311aco/paul_ro...

"Why Information Goods and Markets are a Poor Match" https://www.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2vm2da/why_inf...

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#145

Post by blumkvist » Thu, Apr 30, 2015, 9:12 AM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #144

blumkvist wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People don't want ads. People don't want to pay for content. I think people shouldn't feel entitiled to content

Information goods don't play well with markets for multiple reasons. "Paul Romer on Information Goods" https://www.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/311aco/paul_ro... "Why Information Goods and Markets are a Poor Match" https://www.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2vm2da/why_inf...

Those are great! Thanks.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#146

Post by alphapapa » Sat, May 02, 2015, 11:02 AM UTC

cft wrote: post #142

alphapapa wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your comment is quite insightful. Just think about how many times instant messaging has shifted from one most-popular platform to another. IRC, ICQ, AIM, MSN, Skype...SMS?...Facebook?...WhatsApp? It's just a constant shift from one service to the next. Obviously this cycling will continue forever. Therefore it would seem unwise to invest in any one platform too heavily, if at all--as a user or an investor.

Skype - was released in 2003, and is very popular among teens 12 years later. These users were 2 years old when Skype was released.

Kind of an anecdote, but still interesting, thanks. The question is, then, for how long will Skype be as popular as it currently is? And, will these teens keep using it as they age? If so, will Skype's demographic tend to follow them?

Of course there are a million variables. I mean, AIM is still around, right? But it's no longer the "default" IM system, while a few years ago, it seemed to be (to me, anyway).