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SpaceshipTwo crashes shortly after Mojave test flight

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Re: SpaceshipTwo crashes shortly after Mojave test flight

#141

Post by brent_noorda »

atlantic wrote: post #95
revscat wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are getting downvoted, but I actually agree with you. Space travel is awesome, but so is living, and right now we are not living in a way that is sustainable over the short term. Space travel is, for me, an anachronistic hold-over from people who grew up with Heinlein, Asimov, etc., but is not something that is realistic given the environmental situation. Realistically, any vehicle that is dependent upon currentl…

Thanks. I expected the downvotes. But it breaks my heart that we have such a beautiful planet and we treat it like a trash heap, all the while dreaming of Mars and whatnot. Let's put our own house in order before we go off travelling.

SHORT STORY: A conversation between parent and child, on Mars, sometime in the future:

Parent: See that little blue dot in the night sky? That’s Earth.

Child: What is Earth?

Parent: Earth was the planet of our ancestors, before people came to Mars.

Child: Who lives on Earth now?

Parent: Nobody. It’s a dead planet. The actions of rich, selfish people destroyed it.

Child: How did the rich, selfish people destroy Earth?

Parent: They burned it up as fuel, getting to Mars.

Re: SpaceshipTwo crashes shortly after Mojave test flight

#142

Post by JoeAltmaier »

ceejayoz wrote: post #140
revscat wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While true, it is also not as direct of a threat. CO2 is affecting us now , whereas asteroids, etc., are (thankfully) only possibilities. Serious ones, to be certain, but not immediately threatening. CO2 is a direct and immediate threat.

Humans as a species will survive CO2, though, whereas asteroids conceivably can go from "not immediately threatening" to "Earth will be destroyed in a few years" without warning.

"... few days"

Re: SpaceshipTwo crashes shortly after Mojave test flight

#144

Post by throwaway234 »

atlantic wrote: post #95
revscat wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are getting downvoted, but I actually agree with you. Space travel is awesome, but so is living, and right now we are not living in a way that is sustainable over the short term. Space travel is, for me, an anachronistic hold-over from people who grew up with Heinlein, Asimov, etc., but is not something that is realistic given the environmental situation. Realistically, any vehicle that is dependent upon currentl…

Thanks. I expected the downvotes. But it breaks my heart that we have such a beautiful planet and we treat it like a trash heap, all the while dreaming of Mars and whatnot. Let's put our own house in order before we go off travelling.

That's why you build a Mars-dreaming company AND an electric vehicle company :)

Re: SpaceshipTwo crashes shortly after Mojave test flight

#145

Post by dennisgorelik »

larrys wrote: post #79
jcrites wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most systems operate in extreme conditions, sometimes bordering on the improbable. Indeed. Your statement reminds me of an insightful engineering article, "How Complex Systems Fail": http://www.ctlab.org/documents/How%20Complex%20Systems%20Fai... . A few relevant observations from the article that resonate with me: > 1) Complex systems are intrinsically hazardous systems. > 4) Complex systems contain changing mixtu…

The other thing to keep in mind with new complex systems is that they will inevitably go thorough a phase where things are discovered over time. At the start "n" is small 1 flight, 5 flights etc. It's pretty much a given that there will be failures it's just a matter of when and how critical a failure. The failures would be loaded toward happening early on and then fixed so that one particular failure shouldn't happe…

Is it cheaper to pay by adding extra complexity into legal contracts, extra labels, and extra training across organization vs just paying up for fixing the consequences of an outlier accident?

Re: SpaceshipTwo crashes shortly after Mojave test flight

#146

Post by organsnyder »

diminoten wrote: post #133
zepolud wrote: post #31

Test pilots? In the 21st century? I find it absolutely reckless and inexcusable to require live humans riding on a prototype rocket when you have all the processing power needed to automate/remote manage the vehicle literally in your pocket. EDIT: To those downvoting, you should really check that all current spaceplanes have the capability to fly and land autonomously--Boeing X-37, Dream Chaser, even Buran was fully…

At some point you need to put people in those ships, and at some point you need to put test people in ships you eventually want to put people into. Where is the line?

Of course it's easy to say this in hindsight, but I might draw that line somewhere around where you're trying out a new fuel for the first time.

Re: SpaceshipTwo crashes shortly after Mojave test flight

#148

Post by melling »

Turing_Machine wrote: post #107
melling wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're kind of missing the point. The Alaska crab program doesn't come to a complete stop for a couple years while there's an investigation and an attempt to make it safer. It won't be on the cover of the NYT. You don't need to go to Congress and request an additional $1.7 billion for another ship. We are moving into Space at a snail's pace because we keep insisting on spending lots of money to try and send h…

"x The Alaska crab program doesn't come to a complete stop for a couple years while there's an investigation" Neither will Virgin Galactic. "You don't need to go to Congress and request an additional $1.7 billion for another ship." Neither does Richard Branson.

Perhaps, you haven't noticed but I'm using this accident to discuss our national space program. Virgin Galactic has a plane that goes to 62 miles/100km. While this is great, in the short-term, it doesn't help our space program.

Btw, you don't think they need to revisit safety to assure their customers that it's not a one way trip? Do they even have a second plane? There's not a chance that there will be a commercial flight carrying paying customers within the next 2 years. Branson was saying this year just a month ago.

Re: SpaceshipTwo crashes shortly after Mojave test flight

#149

Post by ceejayoz »

atlantic wrote: post #120
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no reason for everybody to stay home and do housekeeping, then there's a big beautiful universe out there. Dare to dream big!

If we can't even save our own home world, there is every reason to believe that we will do damage elsewhere. That being the case, best to stay home until we grow up a bit.

I rather suspect fossil fuel usage, deforestation, etc. won't be an issue on Mars.

Re: SpaceshipTwo crashes shortly after Mojave test flight

#150

Post by ceejayoz »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #142
ceejayoz wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans as a species will survive CO2, though, whereas asteroids conceivably can go from "not immediately threatening" to "Earth will be destroyed in a few years" without warning.

"... few days"

I went with years there to be safe as I'm uncertain about what the detection levels are like for planet-killer sized asteroids. I know we discover house-sized ones passing between us and the Moon after they whiz by.
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