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It's Time For a Hard Bitcoin Fork

hackingdistributed.com

141–150 of 154 posts

Re: It's Time For a Hard Bitcoin Fork

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that if GHash.io launches an attack, miners have the choice to move to another pool. If the US government inflates the currency (yet again) there is nothing to do.

If GHash.io launches a "no one else can mine" attack, then there won't be any other pools to move to. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses#Attacker_has_a_lot_of_... * Prevent some or all other miners from mining any valid blocks

Unless we hard fork...

Re: It's Time For a Hard Bitcoin Fork

#142
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the blockchain is dominated by a single interest, and that player starts abusing their market position, BitCoin's exchange rate will plummet and the economic interest in question will lose millions. So yes, it is in the community's interest and individual miners' interest to keep the hashrate distributed enough to prevent that from happening. What happens when people lose faith in the system? The 2008 financial cr…

And nobody in the world wants Bitcoin to break down?

GHash doesn't - and that's why they will figure out a way to dip below 50% again.

Re: It's Time For a Hard Bitcoin Fork

#143
post #82

Take a deep breath. Stop hyperventilating. Bitcoin has died a violent, crashy, gory death dozens of times at this point. It's in Bitcoin community's, and GHash's, economic interest that no miner exceeds 50%. That's all you need to know to know that this is just another exasperated hand-wringer proclaiming the premature death of BitCoin. BitCoin, RIP 2008 - 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, ?

[deleted]

Re: It's Time For a Hard Bitcoin Fork

#144
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When they bought the mining machines they were entering bitcoin as long weren't they? They can't even sell their future winnings as they don't have them yet, so they are really long!

Well, they aren't long bitcoin from buying mining rigs, they are long bitcoin call options denominated in energy. If the return seems likely to be too low, as eventually it must be when (if things continue) people make more efficient rigs, then it would eventually be in their interest to let the longer term options expire. It is totally conceivable that taking a huge short position and scaring everyone off of btc cou…

In other words, the stars would have to align in order for this to occur.

I don't really know what GHash knows, but I can tell you that GHash's hashrate has dipped well below 50% only a day later, as it did when this happened before.

Re: It's Time For a Hard Bitcoin Fork

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, they aren't long bitcoin from buying mining rigs, they are long bitcoin call options denominated in energy. If the return seems likely to be too low, as eventually it must be when (if things continue) people make more efficient rigs, then it would eventually be in their interest to let the longer term options expire. It is totally conceivable that taking a huge short position and scaring everyone off of btc cou…

In other words, the stars would have to align in order for this to occur. I don't really know what GHash knows, but I can tell you that GHash's hashrate has dipped well below 50% only a day later, as it did when this happened before.

The stars would have to align for it to be genuinely a good idea. Which... well... stars align, sometimes. Moreover, people make mistakes and think stars have aligned.

The threat here is that a single group has the capability to produce 51% of the hashes, possibly reliably (we can't know whether scaling back was deliberate or happenstance). It doesn't matter whether they are persistently using that capability.

Re: It's Time For a Hard Bitcoin Fork

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In other words, the stars would have to align in order for this to occur. I don't really know what GHash knows, but I can tell you that GHash's hashrate has dipped well below 50% only a day later, as it did when this happened before.

The stars would have to align for it to be genuinely a good idea. Which... well... stars align, sometimes. Moreover, people make mistakes and think stars have aligned. The threat here is that a single group has the capability to produce 51% of the hashes, possibly reliably (we can't know whether scaling back was deliberate or happenstance). It doesn't matter whether they are persistently using that capability.

Perhaps the deeper threat here is the rate at which the goalpost is moving.

It's strange, this situation where in there are all these things that would be seriously problematic were they to happen, unless of course they actually happen, in which case they're not actually a problem at all.

Re: It's Time For a Hard Bitcoin Fork

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The pool would notice that certain participants contributions are conflicting with other discoveries, and ban such participants? How? Or, you ban me, I sign up again under a different alias.

The pool can use a 2% fee for old accounts and a 20% fee for new accounts (for example, with less than 1 month or less than 10^x hashes calculated.)

Fees cost almost nothing to hostile miners. With a 20% fee, they get 100% of their hashrate through the theft, and 80% from the pool. So long as you pay anything at all to new miners doing this attack is beneficial.

Re: It's Time For a Hard Bitcoin Fork

#148
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is 3% in three years really "monumental" progress? I honestly don't know much about the issue, but those numbers hardly seem monumental to me.

It's been on an exponential growth curve for a number of years, and the doubling time recently decreased to about 8 months. Whether that continues is of course anyone's guess, but if it does, after another three years it would be at 20-40% (depending on whether you take the recent trend ( http://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V1MLaAEiuNI99s7NO2ZgQ... ) or the longer term trend ( http://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

I can't access either of those documents. But looking at the original graph in the parent, I wouldn't be so quick to call it exponential growth. It certainly looks like it could be, but it's easy to confuse exponential growth with slightly increasing, but still fundamentally linear growth when you're only going from 0.5% to 3.5% over three years. There's no way I would look at that graph and confidently say it's going to be 20-40% in another three years when the last three have been, well, disappointing.

Re: It's Time For a Hard Bitcoin Fork

#149
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When they bought the mining machines they were entering bitcoin as long weren't they? They can't even sell their future winnings as they don't have them yet, so they are really long!

Well, they aren't long bitcoin from buying mining rigs, they are long bitcoin call options denominated in energy. If the return seems likely to be too low, as eventually it must be when (if things continue) people make more efficient rigs, then it would eventually be in their interest to let the longer term options expire. It is totally conceivable that taking a huge short position and scaring everyone off of btc cou…

>they are long bitcoin call options denominated in energy

You mean, "denominated in energy divided by global hashing power (of all miners collectively)".

Re: It's Time For a Hard Bitcoin Fork

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, they aren't long bitcoin from buying mining rigs, they are long bitcoin call options denominated in energy. If the return seems likely to be too low, as eventually it must be when (if things continue) people make more efficient rigs, then it would eventually be in their interest to let the longer term options expire. It is totally conceivable that taking a huge short position and scaring everyone off of btc cou…

>they are long bitcoin call options denominated in energy You mean, "denominated in energy divided by global hashing power (of all miners collectively)".

Yes, believe I do.
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