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To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

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Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#141
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You expect us to believe that you have developed substantive critiques of a 3-year research project in 24 minutes of reading. I don't expect you to "believe" anything. I expect you to look at the items I pointed out and see what you think of them. If you don't agree with them, feel free to give specific reasons why not. your un-ironic reliance on the blog of a retired TV weather guy. I didn't bring Watts into it; the…

Sorry, that was a snap response. Once again I've taught myself the value of posting slowly. c) is wrong; I mistook you for someone else in the discussion. I noted so in an edit. For the rest, I think lamontcg put it better than I could have.

[deleted]

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#142
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a) I'm not the author of the study. b) You expect us to believe that you have developed substantive critiques of a 3-year research project in 24 minutes of reading. (the delta between our post timestamps) c) IMO whatever credibility you might have had to debate the science in detail is forfeited by your un-ironic reliance on the blog of a retired TV weather guy. EDIT: this is wrong, I confused you with another poster…

You expect us to believe that you have developed substantive critiques of a 3-year research project in 24 minutes of reading. I don't expect you to "believe" anything. I expect you to look at the items I pointed out and see what you think of them. If you don't agree with them, feel free to give specific reasons why not. your un-ironic reliance on the blog of a retired TV weather guy. I didn't bring Watts into it; the…

"I expect you to look at the items I pointed out and see what you think of them. If you don't agree with them, feel free to give specific reasons why not."

You need to do some research first. The fact that you had never heard of the BEST study indicates that you don't know the most superficial details about climate science and this debate (and ones that were splattered across the New York Times). I'm not going to do the work to educate you. I expect YOU to do research before you demand me to produce a 250-paper annotated bibliography of climate science and its justification. Come back when you can explain the radiative physics behind CO2 being a greenhouse gas and how it can be shown in a table-top experiment, and when you know what Milankovich cycles are. Explain what caused the last Ice Age to end, be prepared to discuss the PETM. Explain the theories behind the warming that led up to the Eocene optimum 49 million years ago and the subsequent cooling after that. Climate science is more than just arguing about anthropogenic global warming. If you want a place to start, go here:

http://www.amazon.com/Earths-Climate-William-F-Ruddiman/dp/0...

Then start hacking away at these:

http://www.amazon.com/Paleoclimatology-International-Geophys... http://www.amazon.com/Principles-of-Planetary-Climate-ebook/...

Try getting off the Internet and exposing yourself to some actual science and not arguments about science.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#143
post #138
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if there are cyclic effects on long time scales, you're implying they're highly exponential I'm implying no such thing. Consider an analogy: I look at the temperature trend from February through May and conclude that I have enough data to show a significant warming trend. I therefore predict that by November, the planet will be dangerously overheated. Obviously I have ignored a cyclic effect on a longer timescale. Is…

Except no one is simply curve fitting the data - you haven't proposed any alternative mechanism that leads to a multi-decadal warming cycle . That's what anthropogenic climate change is - since the only effect that suitably explains warming is increased eCO2 in the atmosphere. Absent (effective)CO2 increases, you can't explain the warming trend. There shouldn't be one as pronounced. If you're going to say "well what…

Absent (effective)CO2 increases, you can't explain the warming trend.

I understand that that is the "official" view of climate science, but that doesn't mean it's right. I don't think we're going to resolve that sort of dispute here, but if your only argument is from authority--"climate science says so"--then that's not enough for me. I don't think climate science as a field has exercised sufficient care to be just taken at their word.

If you're going to say "well what if there's a long cycle" - then well, what is it exactly?

Nobody knows for sure; we don't understand how the climate works well enough for that. But the fact that we don't have a theory that explains the cycle doesn't mean there isn't one.

Where is all this additional heat retention in the atmosphere coming from?

Actually, the amount of heat being retained in the atmosphere is miniscule on a planetary scale. The significant heat sink is the oceans. You have to be careful distinguishing between heat and temperature.

As for where it's coming from, as above, we don't understand all the causal factors at work; the fact that we have studied one intensively (CO2) does not mean that one must be the only significant one. (The IPCC report itself lists a number of significant causal factors as having a "low" level of scientific understanding.)

The data for example, does not show a 1000 year cycle.

Whose data? I understand that the "Hockey Stick" does not show a 1000 year cycle, but the "Hockey Stick" is not data; it's a (questionable at best) reconstruction of temperatures from data. We do not have direct temperature data from 1000 years ago, and as far as indirect data, there is plenty to indicate that there was indeed a Medieval Warm Period and a Little Ice Age, as I said.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#144
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the link, I'll take a look at it. The data back to 1860 are also sufficient to establish the current warming trend Only if you assume that there are no significant cyclic effects on longer time scales. Climate science as a discipline does not hinge on knowing exactly how warm it was 250 years ago within +/- 0.5C. It does if you're claiming, as the IPCC does based on the input of climate scientists, that te…

"Only if you assume that there are no significant cyclic effects on longer time scales." We know about cyclical effects on longer time scales like Milankovich cycles, we understand solar variation and volcanic effects. We know about the Younger Dryas and Daansgard-Oeschger cycles. We know about shorter term oscillations like the AMO and PDO. You apparently know nothing of any of this, and have never heard of Muller's…

you feel competent enough to make statements about how climatology isn't a real science.

I didn't say climatology wasn't a real science. I said it's not an accurate enough science to justify making policy decisions with huge consequences. Plenty of other real sciences are in the same state; that's to be expected, since it's a phase every real science has to go through in order to become accurate enough.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#145
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You expect us to believe that you have developed substantive critiques of a 3-year research project in 24 minutes of reading. I don't expect you to "believe" anything. I expect you to look at the items I pointed out and see what you think of them. If you don't agree with them, feel free to give specific reasons why not. your un-ironic reliance on the blog of a retired TV weather guy. I didn't bring Watts into it; the…

"I expect you to look at the items I pointed out and see what you think of them. If you don't agree with them, feel free to give specific reasons why not." You need to do some research first. The fact that you had never heard of the BEST study indicates that you don't know the most superficial details about climate science and this debate (and ones that were splattered across the New York Times). I'm not going to do…

Climate science is more than just arguing about anthropogenic global warming.

I entirely agree; but to the extent that climate science is being used to justify policy decisions with huge consequences, it is about anthropogenic global warming, since that's what the political debate is about.

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