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Physicists Solve a Muon Mystery. Now, Old Results Don't Add Up

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141–150 of 187 posts

Re: Physicists Solve a Muon Mystery. Now, Old Results Don't Add Up

#141

If old results do not add up then I can see two immediate reasons: - The new results are wrong. That's why there is a difference. - The old results were wrong. In this case all involved scientists should be very much ashamed to have helpfully participated in worshipping wrongness and fakery. A third option could be partial wrongness, but I group this into the second case. In the modern era I no longer buy into honest…

There is a fourth option, something has changed in between the old and new expirements.

This has happened before in other settings, disappearing polymorphs are a real thing.

Re: Physicists Solve a Muon Mystery. Now, Old Results Don't Add Up

#142

9 years of philosophy and I'm over platonic realism and reading contemporary philosophy of science. The thing is, we are wrong, but this stuff is useful to make predictions. Everyone knows about the copernican revolution. But when it first happened, the old models(earth at the center of the solar system) were more accurate at predicting where the plenets would be. Scientists pragmatically spend their time doing best…

The difference with the Copernican stuff is that you can fly a satellite (e.g. Voyager) to the edge of the solar system, look back, and see the planets orbiting the sun. There is no sane way to put the earth in the center once you do that. If I do a push up the Earth moves beneath me but no reasonable person says I'm pushing the Earth away. Hence I feel heliocentrism is simply an observable fact. It's not a mathemati…

> Yet it is very successful in all its predictions. So obviously the Popperian "falsifiability" is too simple a criteria for science.

Those two sentences contradict each other. If something unobservable implies some observable, i.e. predictable, consequences, then falsifying these predictions would also falsify the unobservable antecedents.

Re: Physicists Solve a Muon Mystery. Now, Old Results Don't Add Up

#143

This “data driven” science approach sure looks like empiricism from a distance. What am I missing?

Out of my depth really, but I believe the "data driven" approach probably refers to some sort of renormalization.

What renormalization does is your theory produces all sort of infinities but you know there is mechanism that eliminates them but your theory is not able to calculate how that happens and the exact degree so you go out look at real numbers and then tweak your model to predict the correct values .

I may be glossing over misrepresenting stuff but that is the gist of it I think. As far as I understand physists don't love this, Feynman and company had reservations (not objections mid you), but it works and allows you to do additional useful work.

Re: Physicists Solve a Muon Mystery. Now, Old Results Don't Add Up

#144
post #118
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a bit sick of this narrative. That science can make mistakes is in no shape or form, one of its strengths. It is a weakness of the process. The lipstick putting can be exposed by simply asking if you would not prefer a version of the scientific method that is never wrong.

This is a ridiculous strawman argument that misconstrues what people are saying is good about science--that it constantly reexamines and improves upon its models. You're saying that it would be preferable to have an oracle that flawlessly tells us the truth, and therefore the fallibility of science is "a weakness of the process", but that's completely absurd, a radical failure of reasoning, as of course no such oracl…

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120855

Summary:

1. "Science" can only correct when economics allows it to do so. 2. True believers of science who are ever apologetic to the problems with contemporary scientific method provides economic incentives, and prevent real science to happen.

Hence my irritation with the "Celebration" when ever science makes a mistakes (an apologetic gesture to stop the loss of "faith" in science), because that is the unmistaken mark of a "True believer".

Re: Physicists Solve a Muon Mystery. Now, Old Results Don't Add Up

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aye, but we only sorta kinda "know" what things like black holes might be. We have models that make sense to us based on our understanding of science, and we think our instruments can faithfully report on what they can be with measurements we believe we are making correctly, but we have no clue what we don't know, and no real way to prove it, just theorize, and sort of bundle up what we believe is data supporting it.

There are so many observations that fit the theory at this point, that we know there is a supermassive black hole in the center of our galaxy just as well as we knew the earth orbited the sun before the voyager flight.

Well, not really. We can hypothesize there is certainly something _very_weird_ going on in the center, and we kinda know weird things happen at super-densities, and we can conjecture based on our understandings of things like gravity and celestial collapses, but any new black holes or even ones we know of that might have occured won't be in our timeframe, and we can never actually witness one even if it were (short of it suddenly happening to our own glowy ball of gas, but there'd hardly be a you to witness it)...

People like Wheeler and Hawking came up with theories and people basically sought to prove or disprove them, but maybe we have a limited capacity to think outside of those boxes. Like, who really knows, maybe the big bang had similarities... who knows how being close to a black hole really affects stuff like space-time curvature.

Re: Physicists Solve a Muon Mystery. Now, Old Results Don't Add Up

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aye, but we only sorta kinda "know" what things like black holes might be. We have models that make sense to us based on our understanding of science, and we think our instruments can faithfully report on what they can be with measurements we believe we are making correctly, but we have no clue what we don't know, and no real way to prove it, just theorize, and sort of bundle up what we believe is data supporting it.

There are so many observations that fit the theory at this point, that we know there is a supermassive black hole in the center of our galaxy just as well as we knew the earth orbited the sun before the voyager flight.

Still remembering how many people bought into m-branes and p-branes.

Re: Physicists Solve a Muon Mystery. Now, Old Results Don't Add Up

#147
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Geocentric coordinates are easily observable; just look at the sunrise and sunset. And if you zoom out even more and look at the galaxy, heliocentric coordinates become unreasonable.

And at the speed at which the solar system is orbiting the galaxy, I don't know that it would even look much like like the planets are orbiting the sun.

In fact the planets aren't orbiting the sun. They're orbiting the galactic center, and the sun just happens to disturb their orbits a bit: https://youtu.be/0jHsq36_NTU?si=VbRsJ_SyA7JK4TD8&t=53

Re: Physicists Solve a Muon Mystery. Now, Old Results Don't Add Up

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are so many observations that fit the theory at this point, that we know there is a supermassive black hole in the center of our galaxy just as well as we knew the earth orbited the sun before the voyager flight.

Well, not really. We can hypothesize there is certainly something _very_weird_ going on in the center, and we kinda know weird things happen at super-densities, and we can conjecture based on our understandings of things like gravity and celestial collapses, but any new black holes or even ones we know of that might have occured won't be in our timeframe, and we can never actually witness one even if it were (short o…

> People like Wheeler and Hawking came up with theories and people basically sought to prove or disprove them

Basically, except that theories aren't "proven".

Re: Physicists Solve a Muon Mystery. Now, Old Results Don't Add Up

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Given that we have seen this play out We saw two examples, definitely unfortunate for what they were but well short of a built in civilization level reaction to scientific progress writ large. I don't think there's a single by and large way that people react to scientific revolutions, negative or otherwise. Feels like it depends on a combination of how it impacts most powerful stakeholders, things about culture, and…

> well short of a built in civilization level reaction to scientific progress writ large if I remember correctly, the plot point wasn't a "civilization level reaction" to bad particle physics experiment results, but rather a very narrow reaction by less than 1/10,000,000th of civilization. which makes sense: the vast majority of the members of "civilization" could not even accurately define "particle physics", much l…

>if I remember correctly, the plot point wasn't a "civilization level reaction"

Your memory is exactly right. But in this instance, what I'm reacting to is not the book but to an HN commenter who glibly claimed that "the history of scientific revolutions" demonstrated that scientists would be suicidal in response to negative data, a pretty extreme claim, followed by a different commenter attempting to support this claim with two examples of scientists frustrated by lack of acceptance of their work that did not die by suicide, massively underestimating the kind of data necessary to support the notion that of scientific revolutions demonstrate the self destructiveness of scientists in response to uncooperative data.

But you are right, that's completely unrelated to what happens in the book, which is all the more reason why appealing to it to explain the behavior of scientists in the Three Body is beside the point. The book doesn't even make that argument! You are not asked to believe that there's some baked in tendency of scientists toward self destruction, it's explained an entirely different way: they are subjected to a campaign of sabotage, harassment, and worse.

The whole detour into whether scientists in the usual case would off themselves is a frustrating non sequitur born of short attention spans, that's not even true (and certainly not at such a level of generality that it's a characteristic response to scientific revolutions throughout history) and it's not even applicable to the events in the book.

Re: Physicists Solve a Muon Mystery. Now, Old Results Don't Add Up

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference with the Copernican stuff is that you can fly a satellite (e.g. Voyager) to the edge of the solar system, look back, and see the planets orbiting the sun. There is no sane way to put the earth in the center once you do that. If I do a push up the Earth moves beneath me but no reasonable person says I'm pushing the Earth away. Hence I feel heliocentrism is simply an observable fact. It's not a mathemati…

> Yet it is very successful in all its predictions. So obviously the Popperian "falsifiability" is too simple a criteria for science. Those two sentences contradict each other. If something unobservable implies some observable, i.e. predictable, consequences, then falsifying these predictions would also falsify the unobservable antecedents.

The hidden variable/better (unknown) alternative theory problem is what he is referring to.

Newtonian Mechanics are falsifiable, but no one could figure out an example that actually did so, until roughly when the orbit of Mercury was fully observed.

Then it was obvious something was missing.

Is there the equivalent for quarks? Or not?

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