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S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

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Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#141

Post by someuser54541 »

gruez wrote: post #128
someuser54541 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

>A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out? You think the hedge funds selling SPY options don't have this priced in already? Of course, you can still make money on this bet, just like you can win money at a roulette table, but unless you think have some special insight that hedge/quant funds don't have, buying options should be negative EV.

> but unless you think have some special insight that hedge/quant funds don't have

Of course not, but it is a hedge, is it not? What would be your preferred hedge in this scenario?

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#142

Post by ericmay »

lelanthran wrote: post #109
ericmay wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The exit plan is to offload overpriced shares, that they paid billions for, onto the public market. If they don't IPO, those investors get nothing. I keep seeing these unsubstantiated claims. They’re out to get us and just pump and dump on public markets! Yet, before they IPO they have to go around and do what? Who sets the IPO price? Who buys the shares? If the shares tank, the valuation of the company goes down a…

My point was that there is no ROI until the investors exit! IMO, those shares are overpriced even at private investment levels, but my opinion is still irrelevant to the fact that there is no ROI until the investors exit!

And when do those investors exit?

Nobody forces you or any other individual investor to buy shares in their “pump-and-dump company” when it lists.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#143

Post by xienze »

semiquaver wrote: post #135
cmiles8 wrote: post #31

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like…

Nothing says “full of shit” like someone saying “market is signaling an impending X”. Why not make a huge levered bet and get wildly rich if you think so?

Knowing "what" will happen is different from knowing "when" it will happen.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#144

Post by llm_nerd »

lelanthran wrote: post #100
llm_nerd wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Campaign? They're friends of the administration, and the US is firmly in the kleptocracy stage now (the last wrungs of democracy are about to be undone this Thursday evening). They'll give a bribe to Trump, they'll offer up 5% of the stock to Chairman Trump as the People's Stock now that the US is basically a bizarre oligarchy form of communism, and Oracle will be declared a state enterprise that cannot lose money. T…

> They'll give a bribe to Trump, they'll offer up 5% of the stock to Chairman Trump as the People's Stock now that the US is basically a bizarre oligarchy form of communism, and Oracle will be declared a state enterprise that cannot lose money. A little bit dangerous for a US administration (any US administration) to do a bailout of unloved companies just before a midterm. Not that Trump won't do it, just saying that…

> A little bit dangerous for a US administration (any US administration) to do a bailout of unloved companies just before a midterm.

You think there will be a free and fair election? Do Americans realize that Trump has openly floated pardons to anyone in his circle? What do you think all of his "every election that I/we don't win is corrupt" rhetoric -- dangerous, grossly unacceptable, anti-democratic horseshit -- is all leading to?

Trump has done brazenly criminal things, repeatedly. He is pardoning anyone who bribes him. He lies with every utterance from his garbage mouth. He doesn't even attempt to pretend that he's delivering his promises now. Congress has completely abdicated any and all responsibility. His entire administration is just shockingly, unbelievably incompetent, from Epstein-Island Nutlick, to Kegsbreath the ChatGPT warrior weakling dipshit.

Remember how outraged everyone was about Hunter Biden selling a painting, or Pelosi trading stocks? ROFL, how bucolic and corruption-lite that is compared to having a crypto-rug pull, inside trader and his family of halfwit runts running around destroying the US for their own family fortunes.

This Thursday evening is going to be eye opening for a lot of Americans that have tried to delude themselves into thinking they're getting lulz for a couple of years. It is shocking that people still pretend you're a democracy, or even capitalist for that matter. The US is post capitalism, and the plutocrats have decided to be done with this whole democracy farce.

It remains shocking that Americans would re-elect this garbage racist self-dealing criminal imbecile again. And I would like to say "you get the government you deserve", only the US is now a worldwide menace so the entire planet will suffer from this idiocracy.

Trump is currently having an armoured facade installed on the front of the Whitehouse, alongside the very well documented bunker complex. Do Americans really not realize what this is actually for?

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#145

Post by ethbr1 »

alephnerd wrote: post #106
Analemma_ wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oracle Cloud sometimes feels like an elaborate prank that I'm not in on. I know people and companies on AWS (obviously), Azure, Google Cloud, Hetzner, CloudFlare's various PaaS offerings, etc., but I can't name a single thing running on Oracle Cloud. Somebody out there is clearly using but I'll be damned if I know who it is.

> I can't name a single thing running on Oracle Cloud CrowdStrike and Uber > Hetzner I don't know of any upper market EMEA customers on Hetzner. I've met Scaleway, OVHCloud, and even STACKIT users but never Hetzner.

I think the market for Oracle Cloud is the same for early GCP: companies with large enough needs and strong enough engineering teams that they can leverage "X runs on Oracle Cloud" into deep discounts. And then cover the gaps with engineering.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#146

Post by someuser54541 »

cmiles8 wrote: post #136
someuser54541 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

Stay well diversified, keep investing each month, and take a nap. There are almost surely severe bumps ahead for the AI space and that will likely spill over into the broader market. But unless you’re retiring in the next few years don’t worry about it. You can’t time the ups and downs and the only proven strategy is to just keep investing in a broad indexed portfolio and just ride out. You’ll take a short term hit b…

I suppose I'm just a little worried about a 10 year sideways market. The run-up has been absolutely insane the past year...some graphs are just a literal straight line up. I didn't get to participate in much of that and concerned the prevailing wisdom on these larger timescales may no longer hold true.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#147

Post by echelon »

lelanthran wrote: post #88
cmiles8 wrote: post #31

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like…

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

Everyone in the tech and media world is dead set on this being a bubble.

Yet, even now, Fable is able to do the work of 4-5 engineers when used by a single senior engineer. Teams can and will shrink.

Look at all the production and advertising companies switching over to Seedance. I know ad firms bidding 1/4th their typical contract price (pharma, P&G, etc.) and winning contract after contract.

This isn't dotcom "dark fiber" before demand. The demand is here now, big legacy firms are just struggling with deploying it. Nimble small teams are making a killing.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#148

Post by Ancalagon »

xnx wrote: post #112
Ancalagon wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And none of the major model makers (not counting SpaceX) have IPO'd yet

Google (and to a much lesser degree, Facebook)

Google's "IPO" is an extra raising round

Is Meta even in this race anymore?

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#149

Post by arielcostas »

someuser54541 wrote: post #117
lelanthran wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

Wouldn't it be wiser to get out of the market into fixed rate assets like government bonds? Maybe have some into puts on SPY (or QQQ since tech would probably have bigger losses) too, but mainly getting out of long positions on what seems a really overvalued stock market

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#150

Post by lelanthran »

Vexs wrote: post #102
lelanthran wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think anthropic with its enterprise strategy and google with its integration in everything have a bit of a moat. But... Anthropic doesn't have a moat. It's clear at this point that SOTA models are not a moat, and Opus 4.6-level (or GLM 5.2) is sufficient. Google, though... they own the entire vertical, from the semiconductors to the end-user software. They may have a moat.

Observationally, for people that /aren't/ using models to code but to just do their white-collar job, claude.ai /is/ AI, now. The entire perspective for how to use AI is through claude skills, claude projects, claude cowork, etc. They've massively won the corp buy-in at the moment I believe.

> The entire perspective for how to use AI is through claude skills, claude projects, claude cowork, etc

But as they have repeatedly pointed out, creating software is almost zero-cost now, so software cannot be a moat.

After all, all of the Claude software can be vibe-coded by any competitor; that's the dream that Anthropic has been selling anyway...

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