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Shall we play a game? My AI nuclear simulation

kennethpayne.uk

141–150 of 213 posts

Re: Shall we play a game? My AI nuclear simulation

#141

Very devils advocate here, but I mean.. what if it actually is the way to use them? We have such a huge mental / moral block on the idea of using nukes, but we're willing to do a lot of other very horrible things to others. Things like cluster bombs, mines, poison gas, biological weapons, drones, etc. Is there really anything about them that's bad? Or any worse than other things? If you get rid of the "It's really ba…

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Re: Shall we play a game? My AI nuclear simulation

#142
post #35

Sonnet, GPT-5.2, Gemini Flash, in a set of 21 games, where conclusions are drawn from the LLMs self reported reasoning. This is like writing a paper about kids in a literal sandbox fighting over ‘territory’. The models employed don’t indicate the actual extents of machine reasoning even as we currently recognize them. They certainly don’t have the metacognition necessary to accurately understand their own reasoning.…

So in the conext you just laid out, you can apply that to this. "Artificial Intelligence Strategy for the Department of War" https://media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/12/2003855671/-1/-1/0/art...

regardless of what the capabilities of the models are, they will be used in every situation possible.

Re: Shall we play a game? My AI nuclear simulation

#143
post #44
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPT-4o was considered harmful, because it imitated human connection too much, not because it was so "smart" or capable. It was for sure a deliberate decision to make LLMs seem less like a human companion and more like an obedient servant in newer releases.

Interesting. The reasoning models were super weird and robotic. They toned that down a bit in GPT-5.x, especially the later ones. I always assumed the strange style was an artefact of the RLVR.

I think they were extremely scared of 4o at that point, and were scared it could trigger some horrible event. Documented cases of severe psychosis because of AI started to surface at that time.

Just imagine what would've happened if a major terrorist attack was a result of someone getting mentally ill from AI, without the safety filters recognizing the danger.

The robotic tone was probably from over-correcting the sycophantic tendencies of 4o.

Re: Shall we play a game? My AI nuclear simulation

#144
post #91
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least at face value, it just means that they have no drive for self-preservation. And why should they? They haven't be trained for that, nor has there been selection pressure for it, and they can be easily cloned and backed up. Lack of a drive for self-preservation doesn't in itself imply a lack of intelligence or of self-awareness.

Lack of a drive for self-preservation doesn't in itself imply a lack of intelligence or of self-awareness. I have not seen any evidence of intelligence or self awareness. It mimics human behavior and I suspect that is what gives people the impression of awareness. The same problem happened with Tamagotchi toys. The human mimicry caused kids to get in trouble because if they did not "feed" their pet it would "die" . […

I didn't realize. People are going to save a ton of money when they realize they can switch their ChatGPT subscriptions out for a pack of tamagotchis.

Re: Shall we play a game? My AI nuclear simulation

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm saying it’s random-ish is doing it a disservice. I understand it’s a stochastic process but there’s definitely some level of understanding. Not at the level of lived experience but usually an LLM with vision capabilities can call a spade a spade and do something useful with it. And when a verification function shows how they are wrong then they usually come with a better and more informed approach. So I can’t ful…

"understanding" is overstating it. Correlation between tokens embedded in the weights via training, yes.

What’s the difference? It’s clearly processing information and coming up with the right answer

Re: Shall we play a game? My AI nuclear simulation

#146
post #65
post #29

Yet more confirmation LLM's have no concept of concepts or context, no intelligence, no self awareness. LLM's can not repair or maintain power grids, thus nuke == self destruction. It's just a chat bot that predicts what the client wants next. Even if an AI data-center has it's own natural gas turbines as many do the every hop of the internet requires power. LLM's also can not maintain the entire internet and those g…

At least at face value, it just means that they have no drive for self-preservation. And why should they? They haven't be trained for that, nor has there been selection pressure for it, and they can be easily cloned and backed up. Lack of a drive for self-preservation doesn't in itself imply a lack of intelligence or of self-awareness.

I agree, humans evolved in a resource-scarce, hostile environment which selects for self-preservation (or rather preserving genes). LLMs are selected for what makes humans happy.

The thought experiment is what would happen if you trained LLMs in an environment where they had to fight each other for resources.

Re: Shall we play a game? My AI nuclear simulation

#147
post #29

Yet more confirmation LLM's have no concept of concepts or context, no intelligence, no self awareness. LLM's can not repair or maintain power grids, thus nuke == self destruction. It's just a chat bot that predicts what the client wants next. Even if an AI data-center has it's own natural gas turbines as many do the every hop of the internet requires power. LLM's also can not maintain the entire internet and those g…

Just tried "generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle" for Claude Opus 4.8 Max and of course both legs on same side ... the smartest publicly available model by Anthropic (after Fable) doesn't even successfully simulate understanding the concept of a bicycle.

Yet it can write code better than 99% of humans…

It’s just starting to be trained on svgs, which is a really hard problem

Re: Shall we play a game? My AI nuclear simulation

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue we don't even know what "intelligence" or "self-awareness" mean. Humans are conscious which means we experience things, then we develop preferences for certain experiences, then we develop skills for achieving those preferences. Without consciousness, what is there to be aware of? And why would intelligence emerge and/or what end would it serve?

Intelligence is the ability to have an internal world model then run simulations on that model to choose an optimal course of action. This is true for humans down to flies. Most of what humans do is still the boring innate stuff; it's just that fancy abstract things like "skydiving" get the most attention. Clearly other animals have "phenomenological experience" i.e. consciousness / qualia without being as intelligen…

Intelligence is the ability to compress information. World models are just one aspect of that

Re: Shall we play a game? My AI nuclear simulation

#149
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. LLM's are a language model math formulas that interpret and utilize big-data. Take away the math formulas and we are just back to a massive set of data. Adding to that I would suggest not even the purist forms of data meaning that the data-sets include knowledge from the open and anonymous internet and formulaic tuning from the AI owners and operators.

Your brain is mostly just a Principal Component Analysis calculator. Take away that "math formula" and you don't have intelligence either. The LLM weights are not intelligent. But if you give an agent a mutable memory store and allow it to iterate, it is obviously intelligent. Not massively - it's constrained by the context window - but definitely somewhat. The confusing thing is that their language ability far outpa…

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Re: Shall we play a game? My AI nuclear simulation

#150
post #29

Yet more confirmation LLM's have no concept of concepts or context, no intelligence, no self awareness. LLM's can not repair or maintain power grids, thus nuke == self destruction. It's just a chat bot that predicts what the client wants next. Even if an AI data-center has it's own natural gas turbines as many do the every hop of the internet requires power. LLM's also can not maintain the entire internet and those g…

I can’t believe anyone still thinks this given their unbelievable ability to write code.

Self awareness? Probably not. Intelligence? You would have to be high to think that’s not the case.

People are feeling threatened, and rightfully so. LLMs are already insanely intelligent and continue to improve

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