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Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

human-in-the-loop.bearblog.dev

141–150 of 272 posts

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#141
post #3

I've had quite a few conversations and read many thoughts on the subject of job security in the software industry through the years. New technologies, various crisis and crashes, just age , incoming "hordes" of less prepared developers, or whatever. If I had to highlight the one thing all those conversations had in common it would be precisely this: I thought that having this knowledge would set me apart And it never…

>>I thought that having this knowledge would set me apart

The whole leetcode movement was designed to sell this idea that knowing a solution that can be looked up in a matter of minutes on the internet some how puts you astronomically ahead of those who don't. Strangely enough go look at that site itself and thousands submit working solutions to those problems.

Knowing a solution discovered by somebody the first time, is no test of capacity or ability to get work done. It would probably matter if you discovered solution to a novel problem by yourself. How does knowing the end result of a long process by other people decide your ability to do anything at all?

During interviews I have seen companies go to absurd lengths to justify these tests. Including asking candidates to imagine they might not have internet and might need to know these solutions.

The only skill that really matters in our line of work is today most popularly known as high agency lifestyle. And delivery skills largely depend on ownership. In my decades of experience with software work, not knowing a thing isn't even a correlating factor in getting things done.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#142
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We’re in some weird stage of capitalism where everything is a grift and nobody really cares anymore. I've felt this way for a long time now. There's no substance to anything anymore. The US economy feels like a more advanced Nigerian scam, where very few things that the US makes provides anything of actual value and substance. Americans just can't afford quality anymore. We decided we'd like to have significant amo…

Its short termism. its the same throughout the west and beyond. The markets want returns on a one or two year period, not long term investment. Executive pay is almost always tied to short term profits and share prices.

Yeah, it's the perversion of capitalism known as publicly traded companies.

Once you start noticing private companies (like some restaurant chains) manage to both treat their employees better and serve their customers better than the publicly traded ones, it seems like a very consistent trend.

Having pursuit of endless growth to appease otherwise uninvolved shareholders might not be the best way to do "capitalism".

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#144

> On novel work: > Work that introduces new methods, highly creative ideas, or solutions that have not been used or experienced before. More generally, an approach that introduces an innovative strategy to solve a complex problem. Something that I've been thinking about for the past year or so is coming to grips with the fact that the vast majority (anecdote) of software engineering work is not novel (and maybe that'…

> pause and ask yourself when you last encountered software were you said "how the hell did they do that?"

Like every month for the past 5 years? The progress in machine learning is dizzying. It is astonishing what can be done now with text, images, audio, video, code, etc...

If you don't study it, however, you have no idea how it works or how to do it yourself.

oblig. xkcd https://xkcd.com/1425/

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#145
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Price of the current frontier may vary, but price for a given level of capability tends to drop pretty fast. April of last year you'd get 1431 ELO[0] from o3-2025-04-16 for $8.00 per million output tokens. April of this year you can get 1436 ELO from deepseek-v4-flash for $0.2 per million output tokens. [0]: https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmarena-ai/arena-leaderboard

Sure, but i don't think it's reasonable to hold given level of capability constant in a landscape where a give consumer of AI also has competitive pressures. I can't use last year's SOTA model when my competitors can use the current SOTA model. This is also baked in the eye watering valuations of model companies.

> I can't use last year's SOTA model when my competitors can use the current SOTA model.

You can use open source models of equivalent or better capabilities for ~90% less cost...

If you kick and scream hard enough, you can always find a data point to make sure you're correct.

No one is saying that the Opus model last year costs 90% less now than it does this year.

That's not how it works.

There are better, more efficient models with equivalent capabilities that are 90% cheaper (see DeepSeek v4 Pro).

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its short termism. its the same throughout the west and beyond. The markets want returns on a one or two year period, not long term investment. Executive pay is almost always tied to short term profits and share prices.

Yeah, it's the perversion of capitalism known as publicly traded companies. Once you start noticing private companies (like some restaurant chains) manage to both treat their employees better and serve their customers better than the publicly traded ones, it seems like a very consistent trend. Having pursuit of endless growth to appease otherwise uninvolved shareholders might not be the best way to do "capitalism".

Someone who is trying to build a business they can sell when they retire, or that they might leave to their kids, thinks on a completely different time scale. Smaller businesses are also run more by personal judgement and relationships than by rules and procedures.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#147
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think in the future, those who succeed will be equivalent to wayfinders. People who _can_ see the wood for the trees, and are able to understand multiple (sometimes conflicting) requirements and work out a way through that solves the problems that arise, for all involved parties. An understanding of domain, the ability to communicate effectively and a mind that can think laterally, will all be vital.

> I think in the future, those who succeed will be equivalent to wayfinders. In the future, those who succeed will be the owners of capital.

Means of production, yadda yadda… I feel a great sense of deja vu.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#148

I strongly agree with the author replies. I cannot grasp the reasonment of those who underestimate the power of these tools and their growing potential. We should remember that the outside world care about things that work, not about how good they are inside sadly.

Actually, the outside world is in a constant state of low-grade rage at how poorly software works these days. Slop code will only accelerate this trend.

For the most part, people don’t need a thousand new features; the investment class does. Nobody gets mad at Craigslist.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#149

> Domain knowledge can be learnt much quicker than how to apply good engineering principles. This is a particularly ignorant thing to say.

It's classic https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/physicists.png (Also, both might be out of reach of the current AI architectures)

Software engineers have the same attitude, but are dumber.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think in the future, those who succeed will be equivalent to wayfinders. In the future, those who succeed will be the owners of capital.

How do you know those aren’t the same thing?

Because you can inherit capital.

You can also inherit talent, but "the descendants of those worthy are worthy" is a belief humanity spilled a lot of blood to get away from.

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