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Where are the economies of scale in homebuilding?

construction-physics.com

141–149 of 149 posts

Re: Where are the economies of scale in homebuilding?

#141
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3D printing isn’t going to make houses hugely much cheaper. The lion’s share of the cost of a house is fit-out. Doors, windows, lighting, plumbing, cabinets, tiling, painting. What needs to happen is modular designs where the house is made out of standardised ready-made components that are mass produced in a factory and plug together to form a finished house.

I've never understood why we go through so much work, to coat the interior of our houses with easily damaged and difficult to repair materials. Who thought it was a good idea to compress dust between sheets of paper, nail it to the framing, then spray a texture onto it with more dust, and color that with a film of plastic that's cured in place, so it needs multiple coats to be thick enough to provide a consistent col…

Have you ever seen what plastering a wall entails? Have you calculated what it would cost to install wood paneling given lumber prices?

Drywall is incredibly fast to install and two sheets of 5/8” drywall will give you a 4 hour fire rating.

Re: Where are the economies of scale in homebuilding?

#142
post #31

I think standardized codes would help a lot. Another major issue is labor mobility: Here in California, there's a big labor shortage for all blue collar trades, and even if they do live in the area, they have to spend a lot of time going to/from the job site. I think this can be largely solved by technology, but with a change of regulations, code, and division of labor in the trades. 1) Put all the power conduit, plu…

I work in the construction industry, you did not ask the LLM the right questions.

1) is already the way residential construction works. Conduit isn’t used in homes aside from Chicago and a handful of other jurisdictions but all conduit can be cut with a sub $500 tool called a portaband. Plumbing pipe can be cut with a portaband. There are multiple power tools that can be used to cut sheet metal. Fittings for the electrical, plumbing, and HVAC trades are commoditized and standardized.

2) Drywall and drywall finishing is the cheapest labor on a building site aside from the cleaners and maybe the insulators. The framers, finish carpenters, equipment operators, flooring workers, and MEP trades all make more than the drywallers, mudders/tapers, and painters.

3) Raised seam metal roofs are great and last longer than asphalt shingles, but it’s more expensive up front.

4) Solar roofs have far too many terminations/connections to be reliable, the upfront cost may possibly never be paid back. That could change, but it’s a tricky problem.

> That leaves the foundation + architecture / engineering work as the hard part. Most of the design work for that stuff could be automated. Let the homeowner and builder boss an LLM around, and then run the LLM output through code compliance + simulation gates. The latter is really important because most local code is hazard or climate dependent, and having good deterministic vetting of designs would let the construction process apply to multiple climates.

The architect and engineer design the construction documents to adhere to the codes in the jurisdiction the structure is being built in, no LLM needed. Most jurisdictions just adopt one of the standardized codes for general code like the IBC and then various trade codes like the NEC.

Things like roof load calculations for areas with snow make designing a house that works in both California and Minnesota not worth it unless you want to overengineer your roof for California.

There’s an entire massive industry focused on shaving costs to increase margins that have been working on these problems for a long time.

Re: Where are the economies of scale in homebuilding?

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paneláks work, in the sense that after the necessary fixes and improvements, plenty of people still live in them happily. Some comments from the Commie era, though: * quality of work used to be shoddy in a legal environment where firing a drunkard was illegal and there were no competing firms. In a competitive market, this can only work if the people doing the building are reliable and competent, * some level of pers…

I don't think quality of work actually improved that much, people like to bash these commie buildings, but when you look at new buildings it's not really much better. Now you have competitive market, but the result in race to the bottom (price) is the same, they jsut hire the cheapest Ukrainian and you will get the expected result. I have good examples, we had vote in our building who will upgrade our roof, we had of…

I want to say from thousands of miles and an ocean between us, the roofing market is the same. Most contractors bid the work by hiring the same groups of people that have either low/no skill or are displaced/not exactly legal immigrants.

I was able to hire a company that employed locals and you know what, the price was 25% higher, they took twice the time to finish, and the roof still leaked. I've had one fixed and now have another leak to get fixed. I won't let them back on my property.

Lol, the illusion of choice

Re: Where are the economies of scale in homebuilding?

#145
Actual developer / builder here.

The primary cost in homebuilding is not building itself. It is the gigantic amount of regulatory compliance and associated costs. Just splitting a parcel costs tens of thousands and takes years unless you know whose palms to grease. This is in the US in Washington state.

Re: Where are the economies of scale in homebuilding?

#146
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3D printing isn’t going to make houses hugely much cheaper. The lion’s share of the cost of a house is fit-out. Doors, windows, lighting, plumbing, cabinets, tiling, painting. What needs to happen is modular designs where the house is made out of standardised ready-made components that are mass produced in a factory and plug together to form a finished house.

I would also like it if the modular units could self drive so I can take my house on vacation.

https://insideevs.com/reviews/796924/pebble-flow-electric-rv...

200k

Re: Where are the economies of scale in homebuilding?

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the world doesnt have access to good/cheap canadian lumber and we do. It would make sfhs and even small multihome projects more expensive not less if you start building them from concrete and steel. Also at the risk of stating the obvious - frame is on the order of 10-20% of the total construction cost so wouldn’t really make much of difference anyway

I was noticing on my last trip to Europe that telephone/power poles were made of concrete, not wood. This was near Budapest.

Same reason - US had a lot of timber and Europe generally didn't by the time industrial revolution came. In addition, a lot of eastern europe had to be totally rebuilt from scratch after ww2 and especially soviets were never really good with money (duh) and did a lot of the things for the show.

Re: Where are the economies of scale in homebuilding?

#148
post #136
post #11

A question about prefab construction came up at a talk this year in Sydney with Lucy Turnbull (Former Sydney Mayor) and Alain Bertaud (planner and author order without design), Lucy mentioned someone tried this in Sydney and went under and they never heard from them again despite promising the world. Alain mentioned that tastes (think in terms of from finishes to floor plans) change often enough where prefabricating…

One problem with prefab is that it isn't less expensive. https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-elusive-cost-savi...

Not disagreeing and the inability to obtain economies of scale like other manufacturing processes is part of the reason why.

Re: Where are the economies of scale in homebuilding?

#149
post #74
post #11

A question about prefab construction came up at a talk this year in Sydney with Lucy Turnbull (Former Sydney Mayor) and Alain Bertaud (planner and author order without design), Lucy mentioned someone tried this in Sydney and went under and they never heard from them again despite promising the world. Alain mentioned that tastes (think in terms of from finishes to floor plans) change often enough where prefabricating…

communist countries before 1989 did this en masse producing large concrete panels with each wall being basically one, they could erect apartment blocks very fast and build thousands of apartments, they also used unified prefab "core" for bathroom/toilet but it's difficult to say how economical it would be in market economy since they did it in centrally planned economy use translate https://panelaky.info/vyvoj_panela…

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