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Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
141–150 of 256 posts
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#142I could imagine cases where prediction markets could offer some actual insight, but in practice they seem few and far between. Most markets I've seen devolve into one or more of: betting on unimportant events (e.g. sports games), insider trading, or poorly written ambiguous resolution criteria. It's just hard for me to imagine that, on net, these markets will offer more societal good than the harm we've seen from spo…
Insider trading does offer actual insight
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#143Congrats Minnesota and good luck with enforcement.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#144I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
> there seems to be no upside whatsoever There's the same upside as pretty much all other forms of gambling. Plenty of people enjoy it and it can be used to generate tax revenue for the state. Don't get me wrong, there's tons of harm that can come from it, but the arguments to allow them are essentially the same arguments for allowing sports betting.
not really because there are mechanisms in place to prevent "insider trading" in sports (not that they're entirely successful)
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#145They're not going to get rid of them, they're just going to drive them underground, which will make them impossible to regulate, which will make using them less safe. I don't participate in prediction markets, but I would bet everything I own on this outcome.
Making using them less safe means that certain kinds of better are less likely to use them, which may be a purpose of this legislation.
Especially if there's also a ban on related advertising. Polymarket and others are absolutely flooding the world with ads at the moment.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#146I could imagine cases where prediction markets could offer some actual insight, but in practice they seem few and far between. Most markets I've seen devolve into one or more of: betting on unimportant events (e.g. sports games), insider trading, or poorly written ambiguous resolution criteria. It's just hard for me to imagine that, on net, these markets will offer more societal good than the harm we've seen from spo…
Getting inside traders to publicize their knowledge for a price is like half of the point of prediction markets
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#147Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#148They've been banned for generations. It's called gambling. Of course, we all have to sit through another round of Silicon Valley pretending they've discovered some new exciting business model that's just vice. Unlicensed gypsy cabs, SROs, shift work, patent medicines, narcotics dealing, customs fraud, and smuggling already had established market entrants I guess.
You left out ponzi schemes, aka crypto.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#149What did the prediction markets predict for this? Theoretically, if they're good at predicting then they should have predicted they'd be banned
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#150I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
How is it different from the stock market?