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ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

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Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#141

Post by jimbokun »

rurp wrote: post #24

It's wild to me how often I see corporate America both: 1. Spend immense amounts trying to build and improve a brand. 2. Toss well known brands aside as if they are useless. Not that it's always the same company doing both at the same time, but it's crazy 538 was just left to die. It was a very recognizable brand among wonky professionals, a very desirable customer base. It's not as if politics and sports have gotten…

The 538 brand focusing on the quantitative aspects of politics and sports should have been massive in this age of omnipresent prediction markets and betting apps.

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#142

Post by jimbokun »

spprashant wrote: post #27

538 was fun while it lasted. The podcasts were also a good listen. Things got worse after Disney had their first round of layoffs. Their problem was they weren't profitable outside the presidential election years when interest peaked in the general public. 3 out of 4 years only diehard election polling wonks tuned in.

If they stayed viable into the heyday of prediction markets and betting apps they should have been printing money.

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#143

Post by derektank »

dangus wrote: post #136
bfung wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just follow the man, not the brand. He’s still doing his thing: https://www.natesilver.net/

But he kind of sucks and isn’t worth following. He’s a sellout at heart, including his recent association with Polymarket. Someone cool would have never sold out a website as good as 538 used to be. Now he’s more interested in profiting off of gamblers.

538 has basically always been a licensed product, first with the NYT in 2010, and then with ESPN/ABC/Disney since they left the NYT in 2013. There were only 2 years where it was an independent blog

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#144

Post by derektank »

afavour wrote: post #138
lesuorac wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly is Nate even wrong here? IIRC, he got to keep all of the models and etc from 538 which is kinda all that mattered about it. Like anybody is really going to lookup the 2016 election in 2030 but they're definitely want the model's output in 2030 for 2030. Management seems to be clearly inept and if somebody wants to give you a wheelbarrow of cash for something worthless you're generally foolish to not accept.

I don’t think that’s all that mattered. FiveThirtyEight was a strong brand, it was definitely worth something.

I still own a Fivey the Fox t-shirt

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#145

Post by yieldcrv »

dangus wrote: post #136
bfung wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just follow the man, not the brand. He’s still doing his thing: https://www.natesilver.net/

But he kind of sucks and isn’t worth following. He’s a sellout at heart, including his recent association with Polymarket. Someone cool would have never sold out a website as good as 538 used to be. Now he’s more interested in profiting off of gamblers.

538 got one election right a decade and a half ago with a contrarian alternative data source, and hooked a bunch of partisan gamblers since

now you can actually bet on your beliefs and dont need to debate with anyone on whether the koolaid colored wave of choice will actually happen, or whether you are a slave to an algorithm induced hall of mirrors. note, the senate has been 50-50 for over a decade, its probably the latter

so the only intervention necessary here is on yourself, focusing on things you cant control while delusionally thinking this time will be different, over and over and over again

extracting value from partisan gullibility and pathetic power struggles is unironically the move

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#146

Post by kortilla »

jimbokun wrote: post #140
dangus wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But he kind of sucks and isn’t worth following. He’s a sellout at heart, including his recent association with Polymarket. Someone cool would have never sold out a website as good as 538 used to be. Now he’s more interested in profiting off of gamblers.

You do realize the person responsible for 538 is the same person?

… yes, that’s why he mentioned that he isn’t cool for selling 538…

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#147

Post by tstrimple »

cmsparks wrote: post #3
deanebarker wrote: post #2

But why?

No idea. ABC bought it and slowly has been shutting down the parts of it. They got rid of the projects page, then laid off all the folks working on it after the election, and now have gotten rid of all of the articles. Fortunately the Github is still up: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight

It turns out "liberal main stream media" was always controlled by capitalists. It was never "left leaning" unless your mind was entirely warped by right wing propaganda.

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#148

Post by tstrimple »

chasd00 wrote: post #56

Was 538 ABC's property during the first Trump election? IIRC they took a pretty big credibility hit after getting that election so wrong and never really recovered.

Some ignorant people need to play X-Com. A 95% chance to hit a target does not mean you hit the target 100% of the time. For fucks sake, even D&D players understand the concept of a critical miss.

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#149

Post by caconym_ »

applfanboysbgon wrote: post #80
chasd00 wrote: post #56

Was 538 ABC's property during the first Trump election? IIRC they took a pretty big credibility hit after getting that election so wrong and never really recovered.

> pretty big credibility hit after getting that election so wrong That this is the narrative that survived the election is one of the greatest indictments for our society's ability to engage in critical thinking. The day before the election, the Huffington Post published a hit piece criticising Nate for overrating Trump's odds and inspiring panic. Huffpost predicted a 98.2% chance of Clinton winning, NYT predicted 85…

+1. It's insane how history has been rewritten here, though it probably helps that 95% of people don't understand what the fuck a forecast is. They translate "30% chance Trump wins" into "0% chance Trump wins" because 30 < 50. Try asking them whether they think a 45% chance of rain means it definitively isn't going to rain and hear the wind whistling through the empty space between their ears.

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#150

Post by yongjik »

caconym_ wrote: post #149
applfanboysbgon wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> pretty big credibility hit after getting that election so wrong That this is the narrative that survived the election is one of the greatest indictments for our society's ability to engage in critical thinking. The day before the election, the Huffington Post published a hit piece criticising Nate for overrating Trump's odds and inspiring panic. Huffpost predicted a 98.2% chance of Clinton winning, NYT predicted 85…

+1. It's insane how history has been rewritten here, though it probably helps that 95% of people don't understand what the fuck a forecast is . They translate "30% chance Trump wins" into "0% chance Trump wins" because 30 < 50. Try asking them whether they think a 45% chance of rain means it definitively isn't going to rain and hear the wind whistling through the empty space between their ears.

You know what... just down below there's a comment saying Nate Silver was always wrong, just like meteorologists...

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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