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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

avkcode.github.io

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#141

Post by calfuris »

mejutoco wrote: post #116
boothby wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why misspellings and homophones are tells of human righting. LLMs strongly prefer word-level tokens, and word substitutions follow semantic similarity and not the more human auditory similarity.

> righting. > LLMs strongly prefer word-level tokens, and word substitutions follow semantic similarity and not the more human auditory similarity. Is this an elaborate joke or your full-word misspelling of writing is both agreeing with your statement (word substitutions) and contradicting it (not semantic but only pronunciation similarity)

I don't see the contradiction, unless you believe that the grandparent comment was written by an LLM.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#142

Post by omneity »

boothby wrote: post #85
doph wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All tokens are symbols. All of the frontier models speak Mandarin.

This is why misspellings and homophones are tells of human righting. LLMs strongly prefer word-level tokens, and word substitutions follow semantic similarity and not the more human auditory similarity.

Funny, I’ve been cracking[0] at this exact problem with a purpose-built model[1]:

0: https://huggingface.co/posts/omarkamali/593639295164067

1: https://omneitylabs.com/models/sawtone

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#143

Post by nradov »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #134
YetAnotherNick wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well China is consistently 6 months behind the frontier labs(possibly because they can they harvest data from released frontier models). If the scaling continues, US will win, but if not then China will win as the models will converge.

The non-release of Mythos tell you the future of that, so long as they can keep the weights from being exfiltrated. Once models become true national security threats, they won't be released in their full form. The hitch-a-ride approach becomes less capable of keeping up.

How would they prevent distillation? That would seem pretty tough to block for any LLM available for commercial use.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#144

Post by npinsker »

topheroo wrote: post #115
kelseyfrog wrote: post #102

Commercialization is not enough. The US is built on financialization . Cultivating an ecosysyem of strong capital protections, wealth creation through extraction, and tax advantages for AI finance is what we should be looking for. Commercialzation may be a step towards that, but isn't the destination. We have to create a system where those with money can multiply it, not simple add to it.

“A system where those with money can multiply is” sure sounds dystopian to me.

It's (beautifully) dry humor making fun of OP, whose post is rather dystopian already.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#145

Post by mekdoonggi »

robthebrew wrote: post #37

This is patently absurd. US AI companies are investing non-existent money on huge infrastructure with negligible income. This cannot be sustained. And if/when it fails it will take down the economy of the US and probably any other country touching us business.

Almost as if concentrating all of the wealth and decision-making into the hands of a few billionaires is a bad idea...

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#146

Post by ribosometronome »

nradov wrote: post #138
SubiculumCode wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems like a lot of rationalization to me. China is pursuing these because they cannot compete on the frontier. Yes, there is a possibility that all that compute is not needed, but it is a rather remote possibility, and there is no doubt that, given the choice, China would be pursuing frontier model building with closed, propietary-only offerings.

All that compute is not needed. We have an existence proof from biology in the form of natural intelligence that much greater efficiency is possible. However, achieving dramatic improvements in compute efficiency will depend on unpredictable scientific breakthroughs. Personally I suspect that an entirely new hardware architecture will be needed, although I don't have any hard evidence to back that up.

>from biology ... much greater efficiency is possible

Those are much more specialized models with pretty mediocre tokens per second.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#147

Post by Ekaros »

mghackerlady wrote: post #117
bluGill wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't a war today. However China wants Taiwan: war is future option they preparing for - they might or might not go to war but they are clearly preparing. The US is likely to get involved in such a war and I would expect Europe to join in as well. Don't ask me what Trump is doing though.

China going for Taiwan would be the worst geopolitical move of the century, potentially worse than Germany's decision to invade the soviet union. They talk about reunification because it's good propaganda and both sides want it to a degree, but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub

Just look at Iran. Nothing really happened to USA or Israel. Nothing will happen to China if they take Taiwan. Or maybe the "West" will boycott them and crash entirely.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#148

Post by [deleted] »

ambicapter wrote: post #126
Avicebron wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol I'm pretty sure the "deep state" just means, "manipulating the levers of power from a place without accountablity/oversight" which covers both these shadowy hidden layers of govt you describe and the shadowy wealthy elites funding and lobbying for whatever. It can be both.

Sure, anything can mean whatever you want if you redefine anything to suit your whims at the time.

[deleted]

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#149

Post by input_sh »

rhubarbtree wrote: post #75
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

China is trying to undermine the US economy through open source models. If they can down round or bankrupt the model companies, they take down the US. Currently the US is extremely vulnerable and dependent on China. AI is an important exception, so it’s key for China to destroy that

The US is undermining its own (and everyone else's) economy just fine, no imaginary assistance from China necessary.

The role of the US was always to purchase cheap Chinese hardware, slap some modestly better software on top of it and the rest of the world happily would pay for that as a whole package. But with the US increasingly becoming isolationist, the rest of the world is starting to wonder why do we need the US as a middleman at all, so the US had to invent a whole new reason for the rest of the world to rely on it: AI.

Of course, the problem with this idea is that while everyone was perfectly happy with the previous arrangement, nobody else in the world gives a shit about AI. It's scary, it takes the coolest things we used to enjoy doing and turns into mush, it destroys our local culture by making us all rely on English, everything bad (like layoffs) gets blamed on AI and so on and so on. And when you combine that with the rest of the stupid foreign policy decisions, many would find joy in witnessing the US economy crumble to the ground. Pointing the blame to China instead of to your own reflection in the mirror is just an easier pill to swallow.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#150

Post by mekdoonggi »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #50
hansmayer wrote: post #26

What does the term "AI race" even mean, beyond wooing clueless VCs and soon retail investors ? It's not like the LLMs are some super-secret technology. Any economy willing to sink in copious amounts of money and resources can get it to some level - the question, what's the actual payoff? We have yet to see anything really useful, on the level of step change, besides Johnny who can now spin up demo projects quicker.

Not if they cannot get the GPUs.

If China can't get the GPU's they'll build them. If they can't build them they'll smuggle them, and either way, eventually they will take over Taiwan, and then the US will be wondering what they can cook with leftovers.
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