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GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

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Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#141

Post by semiquaver »

pkaye wrote: post #91
semiquaver wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been plenty of studies which indicate that inference considered by itself is almost certainly quite profitable at all the frontier labs. The problem is amortizing the cost of all the expensive training runs required to train new models into the revenue stream.

Does that mean those running the open models are highly profitable since they don't have to do any training?

I don’t know about highly since they have no moat even more than Antrhropic and OpenAI have no moat. Anyone with a few hundred thousand dollars or sufficient free GPUs can compete with them. So running an open model should earn a market-rate margin.

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#142

Post by voxleone »

Hendrikto wrote: post #79
tempaccount5050 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it doesn't even come close to frontier models in intelligence/speed/price. I can run my 3090 nonstop and rack up an electricity bill that costs more than a subscription and get worse results that are slower. They are ok for simple/non complex things, but that's not really what I need AI for.

Well, it is currently cheaper because it is massively subsidized. That will change when subsidies stop. I don’t think it is a good argument.

[dead]

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#143

Post by LocalH »

BadBadJellyBean wrote: post #122

We are slowly inching closer to the point where AI and AI products will be billed for what they cost. We are currently living in the heavily discounted world where everything subsidized to the point where a lot of it is free. It seems like they can't or won't keep that up anymore. My prediction is that whenever one of the big companies raise their prices or move features to higher tiers others will follow soon. They…

That's what the cloud AI industry is banking on. Pushing hard to get AI into workflows at a critical position, then raising the cost to turn the screws, hoping that companies would rather pay than pivot again

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#144

Post by Aurornis »

BadBadJellyBean wrote: post #122

We are slowly inching closer to the point where AI and AI products will be billed for what they cost. We are currently living in the heavily discounted world where everything subsidized to the point where a lot of it is free. It seems like they can't or won't keep that up anymore. My prediction is that whenever one of the big companies raise their prices or move features to higher tiers others will follow soon. They…

> We are slowly inching closer to the point where AI and AI products will be billed for what they cost.

I suspect the API prices are already served with profitable unit economics. The SOTA API prices are much higher than the costs for other providers to run very large open weight models.

The monthly subscription plans were being offered at a discount to generate interest in these models.

We're not entering a period of billing AI at cost. We're entering a period of exploring how how the prices can go before losing too many customers.

Products and services aren't sold at cost. They're sold at the price the market will bear. It takes some experimentation to find that equilibrium point where you make more profit per customer but don't lose too many customers.

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#145

Post by malfist »

Aurornis wrote: post #144
BadBadJellyBean wrote: post #122

We are slowly inching closer to the point where AI and AI products will be billed for what they cost. We are currently living in the heavily discounted world where everything subsidized to the point where a lot of it is free. It seems like they can't or won't keep that up anymore. My prediction is that whenever one of the big companies raise their prices or move features to higher tiers others will follow soon. They…

> We are slowly inching closer to the point where AI and AI products will be billed for what they cost. I suspect the API prices are already served with profitable unit economics. The SOTA API prices are much higher than the costs for other providers to run very large open weight models. The monthly subscription plans were being offered at a discount to generate interest in these models. We're not entering a period o…

> I suspect the API prices are already served at prices with profitable unit economics.

There is absolutely no evidence to support this.

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#146

Post by malfist »

libraryofbabel wrote: post #129
BadBadJellyBean wrote: post #122

We are slowly inching closer to the point where AI and AI products will be billed for what they cost. We are currently living in the heavily discounted world where everything subsidized to the point where a lot of it is free. It seems like they can't or won't keep that up anymore. My prediction is that whenever one of the big companies raise their prices or move features to higher tiers others will follow soon. They…

This is already happening. For new Anthropic enterprise accounts you are billed at api token prices (maybe with a small volume discount). Anthropic makes a profit on those tokens. (Sure, that profit does not cover the model training costs, but that’s a separate issue.) It’s the subscriptions for individuals (e.g. Claude Max) that are still subsidized below cost. > I wonder if managers will be as excited about AI when…

> Anthropic makes a profit on those tokens

Citation needed. Anthropic does not have public books

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#147

Post by lukaslalinsky »

datsci_est_2015 wrote: post #54
yeswecatan wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume because local models are nowhere near as good. Hoping I’m wrong!

The better your code is architected, the less powerful model you’ll need for it to make sense of it. E.g. a well-designed deployment (infrastructure-as-code) repository doesn’t need a frontier model to be understood well-enough to create a new job / service using sibling jobs / services as templates. And this already saves me dozens of minutes per week, although it’s not a 2x multiplier in my efficiency.

I disagree, even though I'd love for it to be different. With models like Opus, I can give it a good architecture and expect good results. For many of the less expensive models, that is not the case, they make mistakes, you need to over specify, they get stuck in a loop, etc. As you get to the models you can realistically run locally, it gets so frustrating I'd rather be writing the code myself.

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#148

Post by ilovecake1984 »

ericmcer wrote: post #138
BadBadJellyBean wrote: post #122

We are slowly inching closer to the point where AI and AI products will be billed for what they cost. We are currently living in the heavily discounted world where everything subsidized to the point where a lot of it is free. It seems like they can't or won't keep that up anymore. My prediction is that whenever one of the big companies raise their prices or move features to higher tiers others will follow soon. They…

It is already bafflingly expensive. I interviewed at a place recently where they said the average dev was hitting $2k/mo in Claude code costs. That is no longer a helpful tool... it costs like ~15% of an actual dev. Even if it is helping, is it actually... making things better or building anything truly important? The issue seems way too nuanced to spend $2k/mo. Not to mention the entire tech industry floats on hype…

The real thing is that it is on tap. If I have to engage an Indian outsourcer to hand off easy stuff to it’s going to be much more painful.

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#149

Post by libraryofbabel »

malfist wrote: post #146
libraryofbabel wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is already happening. For new Anthropic enterprise accounts you are billed at api token prices (maybe with a small volume discount). Anthropic makes a profit on those tokens. (Sure, that profit does not cover the model training costs, but that’s a separate issue.) It’s the subscriptions for individuals (e.g. Claude Max) that are still subsidized below cost. > I wonder if managers will be as excited about AI when…

> Anthropic makes a profit on those tokens Citation needed. Anthropic does not have public books

Their CEO is on record as saying this. You may think he's lying, but that's just your opinion; given the pricing and how it stacks relative to the pricing of inference providers of comparable open source models (who are certainly charging above cost!), I am inclined to believe Anthropic on this.
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