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The RAM shortage could last years

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Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#141

Post by 0xDEFACED »

theandrewbailey wrote: post #53
tomaytotomato wrote: post #19

I just checked my gaming PC I built a few years ago with 64GB of DDR5 RAM, its actually gone up in value, that is unheard of generally. Think I will scrap my PC and sell its parts. I wonder if there are any niche companies building decent rigs with DDR3 and 5/6th generation Intel CPUs out there, it is cheap and might be a business opportunity?

I work at an e-waste recycling company. I have several dozen trays of RAM in my inventory, ~90% of it DDR3. DDR3 was selling as of a month ago, but I haven't tried to sell any RAM since. I'm looking forward to doing a huge one this week.

do you have an online storefront?

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#142

Post by Dylan16807 »

rekabis wrote: post #121
cbdevidal wrote: post #96

I’m a bit of an optimist. I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well and future apps will necessarily be more memory-efficient.

> I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well And hopefully kill Electron. I have never seen the point of spinning up a 300+Mb app just to display something that ought to need only 500Kb to paint onto the screen.

You do need a couple framebuffers, but for the most part yeah...

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#143

Post by bombcar »

formerly_proven wrote: post #102
bombcar wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t the memory makers always get left holding the bag? I feel this has happened at least three times before.

DRAM and to a lesser degree storage are notorious for their feast and famine cycles (Well that and collusion)

I don’t know if they realize that collusion lends itself to feast/famine.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#145

Post by wmf »

jmyeet wrote: post #92

This is simple extrapolation from current demand, nothing more. And that's a borderline silly analysis because it assumes the AI bubble won't burst. The great misadventure in the Persian Gulf probably accelerates that because we're almost certainly going to be facing a recession. Another thing I've been thinking about is what happens when the next generation of NVidia chips comes out? I suspect NVidia is going to del…

something that's better than the current state-of-the-art for half the price. And what's that going to do to the trillions in AI DC investment?

They'll just spend whatever they were planning to spend and get more performance.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#147

Post by whatever1 »

bombcar wrote: post #79
stuxnet79 wrote: post #11

Ok so Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron do not have the capacity to meet demand. Also, what little capacity they do have they are allocating to HBM over DRAM. Based on my limited knowledge HBM can not be easily repurposed for consumer electronics. Translation: main street is cooked for the next 3-4 years. It doesn't stop there though. OpenAI is currently mired in a capital crunch. Their last round just about sucked all th…

Don’t the memory makers always get left holding the bag? I feel this has happened at least three times before.

All of the capital intensive businesses face this issue. Chemicals, Shipping, Semiconductors etc.

You get market signals that the demand is there, you acquire the necessary capital, you spend 5 years to build capacity, but guess what, 5 other market players did the same thing. So now you are doomed, because the market is flooded and you have low cash flow since you need to drop prices to compete for pennies.

Now you cannot find capital, you don't invest, but guess what, neither your competitors did. So now the demand is higher than the supply. Your price per unit sold skyrocketed, but you don't have enough capacity!

Rinse and repeat.

Capitalists claim that this is optimal.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#149

Post by BeeOnRope »

zozbot234 wrote: post #120
stuxnet79 wrote: post #11

Ok so Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron do not have the capacity to meet demand. Also, what little capacity they do have they are allocating to HBM over DRAM. Based on my limited knowledge HBM can not be easily repurposed for consumer electronics. Translation: main street is cooked for the next 3-4 years. It doesn't stop there though. OpenAI is currently mired in a capital crunch. Their last round just about sucked all th…

There's actually plenty of demand for LPDDR even in the AI datacenter, because HBM is quite wasteful of area for any given memory capacity.

Wafer area?
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