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AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

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141–150 of 288 posts

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#141
post #16

I think it's clear to me that AI will be both things: 1) as in the article it's a contraction of work- industrialization getting rid of hand-made work or the contraction of all things horse-related when the internal combustion engine came around but- it will also be 2) new technologies and ideas enabled by a completely new set of capabilities The real question is if the economic boost from the latter outpaces the los…

> do people really believe no novel things will be unlocked with this tech? That it's all about cost-cutting?

The cost cutting is the only revenue producing models for the AI companies so far. It's being pitched as a way for corporations to fire a lot of employees and save money.

Revenue for the consumer facing products is not very impressive. Consumers are mostly satisfied with the free versions and very resistant to adding yet another channel to shove advertising at them.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#142
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So now the ancillary question from your example is: "Is hand-spun cotton better than industrialized polyester?"

Define better. Fast fashion sucks, but hand-spun cotton won't give you Kevlar or modern wind-resistant clothing or fireproof materials for your furniture or... . It's always win some, lose some with the economy, but technology itself opens previously impossible capabilities.

It used to open them to most of the population - at least that was the ideal for a couple of decades - but now it seems to be opening them to oligarchs more than workers.

It's essentially a political energy source. It heats everything up.

Eventually it either explodes, goes through a phase change to a new (meta)stable state, or collapses back to a previous state.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#143
post #7
post #4

I'm currently looking for sort of niche clothes for an event and it's the first time I had to give up on buying online because of the sheer amount of AI-generated pictures. Going to a physical store was just a much better experience, I can't recall the last time this happened, almost all sellers on Etsy are using AI for their pictures.

full disclosure I work at Whatnot but that sort of thing is a large part of the appeal of Whatnot to me, that people are showing off the stuff live on stream and you can ask questions about it

This whole concept of selling things in video format seems so alien to me. I didn't believe when someone told me they shop on TikTok now. It already takes me ages to browse through a gallery of items, I couldn't imagine going through items video by video.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#144
post #59
post #16

I think it's clear to me that AI will be both things: 1) as in the article it's a contraction of work- industrialization getting rid of hand-made work or the contraction of all things horse-related when the internal combustion engine came around but- it will also be 2) new technologies and ideas enabled by a completely new set of capabilities The real question is if the economic boost from the latter outpaces the los…

So now the ancillary question from your example is: "Is hand-spun cotton better than industrialized polyester?"

What's the AI equivalent of industrialized polyester in your analogy?

From a consumer perspective, AI isn't really producing any new products with real market demand. Chatbots are fun, but there's no indication consumers are willing to pay for them.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

are you under the impression life was better before capitalism?

That's a false-dichotomy. Capitalism was good for artisanal workers before the industrial revolution, and then it became pretty goddamn bad for them. We're worried we're staring down the barrel of that right now - just saying 'well it was even worse before capitalism' does nothing for us.

yes it does, it says that trying to prevent technology in order to protect the interests of some special class up people at the expense of everyone else is dumb and shortsighted.

If if people actually listened to the people wailing "but what about the horse carriage business!!!" in the 20th century, it would have been a disaster.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#146
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So now the ancillary question from your example is: "Is hand-spun cotton better than industrialized polyester?"

Define better. Fast fashion sucks, but hand-spun cotton won't give you Kevlar or modern wind-resistant clothing or fireproof materials for your furniture or... . It's always win some, lose some with the economy, but technology itself opens previously impossible capabilities.

What is the AI equivalent of wind-resistant clothing or fireproof materials?

So far the only product AI is producing is layoffs.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#147
post #15

I had to code something on a plane today. It used to be that you couldn't get you packages or check stackoverflow. But now, I'm useless. My mind has turned to pudding. I cannot remember basic boilerplate stuff. Crazy how fast that goes.

For my money, while surely it must have been jarring, that experience would seem to say that on-device LLMs are more important programming tools than package repositories.

As another commenter said, the affordability of LLM subscriptions (or, as others are predicting, the lack thereof) is the primary concern, not the technology itself stealing away your skills.

I am far from the definitive voice in the does-AI-use-corrupt-your-thinking conversation, and I don't want to be. I don't want LLMs to replace my thinking as much as the next person, but I also don't want to shun anything useful that can be gained from these tools.

All that said, I do feel that perhaps "dumber" LLMs that work on-device first will allow us to get further and be better, more reliable tools overall.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#148
post #135
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most obvious thing is bio-tech, protein folding, drug discovery, etc. As in, things that have an actual positive effect on humanity (not just dollars). I don't really get people who are dismissive about this aspect of AI- my original question wasn't about cost-efficiency of developing these things, but just that the technology itself is creating things that wouldn't have been possible before. It seems hard to ref…

Correct me if I'm off base but these things (protein folding and drug discovery) both existed before AI, no? The implication of your comment seemed to be that this was going to be so much more than replacing people. But I fail to see how any of the items you listed are anything other than that. These things have always been possible. Just slow and limited by labor. Which is the primary and novel "unlock" of AI. You c…

> Correct me if I'm off base but these things (protein folding and drug discovery) both existed before AI, no?

Yes, you are off-base.

Solutions to the protein folding problem existed before, but not in the way you are implying.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#149
post #16

I think it's clear to me that AI will be both things: 1) as in the article it's a contraction of work- industrialization getting rid of hand-made work or the contraction of all things horse-related when the internal combustion engine came around but- it will also be 2) new technologies and ideas enabled by a completely new set of capabilities The real question is if the economic boost from the latter outpaces the los…

Change is a constant in history. Stuff happens, and then we adjust. Big changes may result in short term confusion, anger, etc. All the classic signs of the five stages of grief basically.

If you step back a little, a lot of people simply don't see the forest for the trees and they start imagining bad outcomes and then panic over those. Understandable but not that productive.

If you look at past changes where that was the case you can see some patterns. People project both utopian and dystopian views and there's a certain amount of hysteria and hype around both views. But neither of those usually play out as people hope/predict. The inability to look beyond the status quo and redefine the future in terms of it is very common. It's the whole cars vs. faster horses thing. I call this an imagination deficit. It usually sorts itself out over time as people find out different ways to adjust and the rest of society just adjusts itself around that. Usually this also involves stuff few people predicted. But until that happens, there's uncertainty, chaos, and also opportunity.

With AI, there's going to be a need for some adjustment. Whether people like it or not, a lot of what we do will likely end up being quite easy to automate. And that raises the question what we'll do instead.

Of course, the flip side of automating stuff is that it lowers the value of that stuff. That actually moderates the rollout of this stuff and has diminishing returns. We'll automate all the easy and expensive stuff first. And that will keep us busy for a while. Ultimately we'll pay less for this stuff and do more of it. But that just means we start looking for more valuable stuff to do and buy. We'll effectively move the goal posts and raise the ambition. That's where the economical growth will come from.

This adjustment process is obviously going to be painful for some people. But the good news is that it won't happen overnight. We'll have time to learn new things and figure out what we can do that is actually valuable to others. Most things don't happen at the speed the most optimistic person wants things to happen. Just looking at inference cost and energy, there are some real constraints on what we can do at scale short term. And energy cost just went up by quite a lot. Lots of new challenges where AI isn't the easy answer just yet.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#150
post #16

I think it's clear to me that AI will be both things: 1) as in the article it's a contraction of work- industrialization getting rid of hand-made work or the contraction of all things horse-related when the internal combustion engine came around but- it will also be 2) new technologies and ideas enabled by a completely new set of capabilities The real question is if the economic boost from the latter outpaces the los…

It's been a few years and I have yet to see a single novel thing come out of it. Even chatbots weren't novel when ChatGPT came out.

It's disingenuous to say ChatGPT is not novel relative to older chatbots. The capabilities of ChatGPT compared to what came before were astonishing and continued to improve at a rapid rate.
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