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SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

141–150 of 631 posts

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#141
post #136

[stub for offtopicness] [All: please don't post unsubstantive comments to HN. You don't have to like $Company or $Person, but when the banned accounts are posting more thoughtfully than the rest, that's... bad.]

How can I avoid my retirement and index funds being a part of this garbage?

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#142
post #96
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if they weighted (fully) by float (perhaps the average float from the trailing 90 days to the re-balance) it would not be as easy to game. The Nasdaq is accounting for float, but not completely.

Aren't basically all the huge serious index funds float weighted?

They are, but SpaceX is trying to get rules changed. They want the index to buy at a multiple of the float, so they release say 5% but get bought as if they had released 15% float. They also normally wouldn't be eligible for index inclusion for ~1 year, after showing multiple quarters of good stewardship, etc. They're trying to bypass all that

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#143
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Valuations are always more of an art than a science but in what world is SpaceX worth more than Meta today? Maybe the $1.75T is to find that world.

I mean... in what world is it worth less? Meta has increasingly ephemeral digital mindshare and no AI play. SpaceX has a near monopoly on access to the rest of the galaxy.

The question for me is just timeline. The "rest of the galaxy" revenue is decades out, while Starlink revenue is now. Most of the 1.75T has to be priced on Starlink working at telecom scale. If not, 1.75T seems like a steal for the first true "Universal" investment...

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#145
post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

[deleted]

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#146
post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

So that’s what he’s been busy with. I was hoping it was Ketamine.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#147
post #136

[stub for offtopicness] [All: please don't post unsubstantive comments to HN. You don't have to like $Company or $Person, but when the banned accounts are posting more thoughtfully than the rest, that's... bad.]

How can I avoid my retirement and index funds being a part of this garbage?

Maybe someone will start selling a Nasdaq minus Musk index fund.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really wish more people were aware of this. It's a major scandal and definitely not being talked enough about. Nevermind SpaceX, which at least have some importance for US defense industry, but xAI ? We will be investing in Elon's private venture, at the price that he himself set and which is at least 2 orders of magnitude too high...

In order to be incredulous at xAI, you'd have to be incredulous of the AI business in general, which is fair. But then you'd also be basically betting against the entire tech sector, and really the entire US economy and against the value add of AI. That kind of bet is much more difficult to swallow.

> against the value add of AI

Hasn't the surprising lack of value add been discussed with increasing frequency?

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#149
post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

I really wish more people were aware of this. It's a major scandal and definitely not being talked enough about. Nevermind SpaceX, which at least have some importance for US defense industry, but xAI ? We will be investing in Elon's private venture, at the price that he himself set and which is at least 2 orders of magnitude too high...

Just call it what it is: SpaceTwitter

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#150
post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

Serious question: Is there some ETF that is "Index of S&P500 minus anything that smells like Musk"?

If you have a big enough portfolio, direct indexing (using something like Frec or Wealthfront) could be an interesting option, and weighting the companies that you don't want at 0.
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