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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#141

Post by enraged_camel »

iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #109
jeffbee wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a substantive complaint to make about the BLS methodology? So far all I see in your remark is shadowstats vibes.

I can't tell if you are serious or not. Lets assume for a moment that there was once a benefit to BLS survey methodology ( I would argue otherwise, but w/e ). Is it a good methodology today? So my main argument ( and frankly the only argument that should matter ) is that is a bad fit for the goal of estimating values ( even though we do know its failure modes ). Is that not enough?

You made the argument and provided zero supporting evidence. As it stands, it's merely an opinion, and appears to be an uninformed one until you prove otherwise. That's what people are asking you to do.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#142

Post by gmueckl »

watwut wrote: post #88
gmueckl wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an downright evil take on the current situation. The supply chains are so complex that no single country is capable of replicating them entirely. It starts with the fact that the required natural resources are distributed around the globe in a way that no country has access to all of them. The production chains from resources to finished machines are downright byzantine. And this becomes recursive with the ne…

> Any Western strategy that sees this as both "us vs. them" and also pursues reduced international collaboration is bound to lose bitterly in the long run. The problem is that Europe does not have a choice here. The Greenland steal crisis is on hold, but not fixed. America clearly shown it will abuse any ties there are - it will lock accounts to tech to bully and get what they want. It will use tariffs to bully count…

The US isn't the navel of the world. It is one country that is slowly removing itself from international trade and the international scientific community.

The European Union has many friendly trading partners left in the world and is also receiving an influx of previously US based talent. The trade decisions of the US aren't forcing the EU into isolationism. This is where your argument goes wrong IMO.

The US government has announced that it plans to actively support extreme right wing parties in the EU. If this comes to pass, it is a direct attack on political freedom in those countries, separate from any economic policy decisions. I don't know how well EU countries can defend themselves against this in the short amd medium term. Some counties have better defenses than others. But I see virtually all of them struggling.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#143

Post by sieabahlpark »

pocksuppet wrote: post #133
tehjoker wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are tightly integrated with Israel, joined at the hip, but you realize we are at war with Russia right? If we were controlled by Russia, we would not be at war with them.

Are you? You're about to remove sanctions on them, not because they agreed to peace, because you destroyed your own other options (the Persian Gulf).

[dead]

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#144

Post by silvestrov »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #126
specproc wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent a fair bit of time in the former Soviet Union, what happened there is instructive for what comes next. I think we will see, across the West broadly, to varying extents: - peripheral states flipping (e.g., Baltics) - widespread looting of public assets, a new oligarchal class minted - total destruction of the middle class, particularly those with ties to government and NGOs (I'm in this camp and miserable for…

There will be no "peripheral states flipping" in the USA. Secession is not an option here.

This is only true as long as there is money for the military.

When money is gone, the military is gone.

Money goes easily when a country has a large debt and need other countries to continue to buy into that debt.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#145

Post by salawat »

jeffbee wrote: post #98
iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't say stuff like this very often, but are you actually blaming a victim for dealing with the reality of government bsing its own stats instead of the government that allowed this bs to continue? BLS had only one thing going for it and it is mostly that it was used for long enough time that changing methodology would prevent us from being able to compare it prior time ranges. That is it. Otherwise, the methodolo…

Do you have a substantive complaint to make about the BLS methodology? So far all I see in your remark is shadowstats vibes.

I've never met a single person willing to attest to filling out a BLS survey. Not once. If their methodology is built on that + unemployment data from State Unemployment agencies + data from payroll processors, anyone not collecting state unemployment benefits is invisible to the system, and half of the payroll is actually not even consituted of U.S. Citizens.

Admittedly, if I could find a single instance of someone willing to vouch or share insight on having filled out a BLS survey, that'd cure a healthy chunk of skepticism. There's still be the other distortions in the data to account for, but I'd at least have an instance proving that yeah, there is somebody filling out these surveys and it isn't just something they say they do to make their magic unemployment number sound legit.

Note, I'm in a massive sceptical shit phase at the moment. Last decade has burned my optimism hard. So when it comes to my ability to assume benevolent intent right now, there's a heavy bias against doing it, and a heavier bias in the direction of "what would be the easiest way to keep the System limping along?" The answer to that is "say you do one thing, in reality do another, and as long as no one comes lookin', it's gold." The finance industry runs on Trust moreso than anything else, and there ain't much to be said for Trusting anything you can't verify these days. Not from other humans.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#146

Post by overfeed »

davidw wrote: post #48
arjie wrote: post #39

One of the things I do like about the US, and that I think is a reason for America's ability to meet the challenges this country faces is that it has good data collection and aggregation mechanisms: from the seemingly-banal surveys and so on to satellite remote-sensing. There's three more years to go but afterwards (and perhaps even post the mid-terms) we should be able to hammer back some of this nonsense like being…

This is going to take a generation or two to fix. If we're lucky and work hard at it.

...and don't vote in more wreckers the whole time

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#147

Post by logicallee »

doctaj wrote: post #71

Wouldn't it be funny if they "fixed" spam calling in order to make it so that the government could call people again?

the answer is reliable money. how much money would you pick up a verified 1 minute survey from the real u.s. government for? I'd do it for $5. (=$300 per hour) and hope for as many calls as possible.

For comparison purposes the U.S. budget is about $20,000 per person ($7t budget, a bit under 350m people), so the government could definitely pay you to answer their "spam" calls. (While mandating that first parties show that it is the real U.S. government and not a spammer.)

So it would be your actual first party telephone showing "Answer this real call from the U.S. government for $5 instantly, 1 minute average call time."

I think that would be a good way to get good data fast. What do you think? (At the same time, impersonating the U.S. government would remain illegal, and the first party would ensure the payment is real.)

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#148

Post by wood_spirit »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #119
varispeed wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Actual evidence of kompromats? Israel? Bribes? We pay them ... If one was to really think about national level bribes then presumably Saudi Arabia would be worthy of mention, given their involvement with the Trump (extended) family.

[flagged]

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#149

Post by iugtmkbdfil834 »

bborud wrote: post #139
iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.

I recently saw “Mountainhead”. Apropos.

Had to look it up. Added to the list.
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