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Most of the US economy is in a recession

businessinsider.com

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Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#141

Post by nradov »

XorNot wrote: post #135
nradov wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or just go pick up your own take-out food. Like do these customers not have working cars or even bicycles? I understand that there are customers who are stuck at home due to disability or caregiver responsibilities but those are a tiny niche. I've seen able-bodied young people spending a fortune on delivery services, which is just stupid.

Delivery services are more efficient then having the same customer base all drive to the restaurant. Unless it's in walking distance, one driver can service many people using a lot less resources.

So what? Regardless of mythical "efficiency" calculations, consumers are wasting actual dollars on conveniences that they can't really afford.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#142

Post by tartoran »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #72
vjvjvjvjghv wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A good economy is an economy that benefits most of the population and not just a few percent at the top. I would argue it should be a political goal to keep income distribution relatively stable. A good economy is also relatively stable. Big booms with a crash following are very devastating to not-rich people. In a crash rich people lose a lot of paper money but not-rich people may have trouble affording shelter or f…

> it should be a political goal to keep income distribution relatively stable This penalizes economic dynamism and moves economic decision making from risk taking to whoever defies the baseline distribution. > A good economy is also relatively stable. Big booms with a crash following are very devastating to not-rich people Not necessarily–plenty of social systems let the market boom and bust without causing social di…

Risk taking should be penalized harshly when the risk is high, that’s the nature of risk. If it pays off good, it was a good move but if it was bad one let the risk taker suffer.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#143

Post by bluGill »

chneu wrote: post #128
bluegatty wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gulf states are US allies that can much more easily be hit + cause damage. They are Iran's regional enemies, that the US is effectively defending them from. Spooking the their leaders + population puts a huge amount of pressure on Trump. Iran has been successful in hitting Patriot and THAAD radars, those are massively expensive, years to replace. If those go down, then Iran can 'terrorize' the region at will incl…

I'm expecting China to go after Taiwan any day now. Im assuming they're waiting for the US to move more resources to the ME so they can get a jump.

I doupt it. China is preparing, but their war machine is still building up and they know it. Eventually I expect it, but not for a few more years.

of course things can change and I've been wrong. That is my best guess though.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#144

Post by craftkiller »

nradov wrote: post #38
ghaff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people need those delivery services? Why can't they just cook meals at home like most people do?

Or just go pick up your own take-out food. Like do these customers not have working cars or even bicycles? I understand that there are customers who are stuck at home due to disability or caregiver responsibilities but those are a tiny niche. I've seen able-bodied young people spending a fortune on delivery services, which is just stupid.

> not have working cars or even bicycles

Yes. I live in NYC so I don't have a car because we have the subway, street parking is a nightmare, and paid parking is $500-$1000/month.

I don't have a bicycle because it would either waste _significant_ space in my apartment, or I'd have to leave it outside where it would be promptly stolen (regardless of locks). If I decided against having my bike stolen, I'd have to carry it up and down narrow interior stairs every time I wanted to use it since I live in a walk-up. I also am not a fan of needing to find a place to store the bicycle at my destination. Whereas if I just take the subway then I am completely liberated: I can go anywhere, stay as long as I want, change my plans on a whim, and never fret about whether or not my bike has been stolen or if there will be a place to store and/or lock my bicycle.

Assuming everyone has cars or bicycles is a very suburban mindset. None of the people that I know in this city have a car, and the people I know with bicycles are the kinds of people who take cycling very seriously. Most people have neither.

The downside is food: If I go pick up food then I am limited to a very small radius from my apartment, lest my food get cold on the walk back. There's only ~3 restaurants I order from within a 15 minute walk radius of my apartment, and for those restaurants I walk. Delivery people can cover much greater distances within reasonable food freshness times, significantly increasing the variety of restaurants available to me.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#145

Post by keyanp »

StilesCrisis wrote: post #116
RustyRussell wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I share this frustration, but a downvote is probably a better reaction than a reply here.

I've been on here for months and still haven't gotten the ability to downvote. I'm not sure why it's put on such a pedestal.

Agreed. Less karma than you, but I've been on the site for 12 years and still can't downvote...

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#146

Post by reactordev »

SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #134
amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

> people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems. You've got it the wrong way around. People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy; Which for most people is "not good", doesn't match the formal economic metrics and definitions of a "recession". Constant layoffs, horrible job market, even worse housing market, and the lingering inflation. The other half of this is of cours…

I go to bed dreaming of putting money in a 401k again…

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#147

Post by booleandilemma »

grumple wrote: post #115
vesrah wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found this video pretty interesting, it talks about why Iran is going after its neighbors. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIS2eB-rGv0

This guy is a well known conspiracy theorist. He's a high school teacher, not a university professor as "Professor Jiang" indicates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Xueqin Some discussion on reddit about him: https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1rnnq6p/though...

But is it true his video "The Iran Trap" predicted the current war with Iran? Seems like a smart guy, regardless of whether he's a high school teacher or not.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#148

Post by bhadass »

uncivilized wrote: post #25
state_less wrote: post #13

Oil spiked to $110/barrel on the WTI front month futures contract this afternoon, a $20 jump up from Friday. At this pace we'll be at $150 a barrel in a week or two. If oil infrastructure keeps getting hit, even if the strait of hormuz is reopened, it'll take a long time to recover from. That's on top of the continued call for regressive tariffs and a weakening labor market. I think we're heading for a recession unle…

He’ll taco when he sees the stock market tanking

but will iran accept the taco? at this point, it seems like it may get ideological for them, and they play a different war (jihad) which would require diverting prolonged resources. we may not be able to simply just leave and revert to normal.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#149

Post by iso-logi »

stephen_g wrote: post #131
donavanm wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you're in the UK, Middle East, Australia (food is about to become more expensive & tricky) Australias not in a terrible position. We produce ~50% of our NPK fertilizers used, and this is down primarily because were importing more from places with cheaper/distant environmental impact. Conversely, IIRC, UK and Ineos just shut down their significant last fertilizer plant and the north sea fields is its own thing. S…

We are vulnerable in Australia though because we have to move food large distances from farms to cities and are unusually road-dependent for those kind of distances (most countries use much more freight rail). Large diesel price rises are going to be extremely painful for us. And electricity and manufacturing too, since we have no real gas reservation policy and the exporters were allowed to build enough capacity to…

Diesel price rising can be easily fixed though.

The Government collects 51.6 cents per litre on Fuel and Diesel, they'd need to just temporarily cut back on some of their obscene fuel margins to keep everything within steady-state.

The question is, will the Government do so?

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#150

Post by ddxv »

SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #134
amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

> people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems. You've got it the wrong way around. People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy; Which for most people is "not good", doesn't match the formal economic metrics and definitions of a "recession". Constant layoffs, horrible job market, even worse housing market, and the lingering inflation. The other half of this is of cours…

I upvoted the parent, read your comment, unvoted and upvoted yours. I think what you're saying describes how I feel exactly.
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