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Claude's Cycles [pdf]

www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu

141–150 of 376 posts

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#141
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Probable given what? The training data.. >predicting what intelligence would do No, it just predict what the next word would be if an intelligent entity translated its thoughts to words. Because it is trained on the text that are written by intelligent entities. If it was trained on text written by someone who loves to rhyme, you would be getting all rhyming responses. It imitates the behavior -- in text -- of what…

It is impossible to accurately imitate the action of intelligent beings without being intelligent. To believe otherwise is to believe that intelligence is a vacuous property.

>It is impossible to accurately imitate the action of intelligent beings without being intelligent.

Wait what? So a robot who is accurately copying the actions of an intelligent human, is intelligent?

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#142
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hold your horses, that’s a long way off. The best math AI tool we currently have, Aletheia, was only able to solve 13 out of 700 attempted open Erdos problems, only 4 of which were solved autonomously: https://arxiv.org/html/2601.22401v3 Clearly, these models still struggle with novel problems.

> Clearly, these models still struggle with novel problems. Do they struggle with novel problems more or less than humans?

Less than most humans, but more than many humans.

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#143
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last week I put "was val kilmer in heat" into the search box on my browser. The AI answer came back with "No, Val Kilmer was not in heat. Val Kilmer played Chris Shiherlis in the movie Heat but the film did not indicate that he was pregnant or in heat. His performance was nuanced and skilled and represents a high point of the film." I was not curious about whether he was pregnant. We are not only not close to human l…

The model that processes search results is tiny and dumb. You shouldn't compare it to the frontier models that are solving complex math problems.

On Google, just clicking "AI Mode" gives you a substantially smarter model, and it's still pretty weak. But I assume the OP wasn't talking about Google because it doesn't seem to make this mistake even in a search.

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#144
post #89

> I think Claude Shannon’s spirit is probably proud to know that his name is now being associated with such advances. Hats off to Claude! I didn't realize Claude was named after Claude Shannon! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Shannon

Trivia: Claude Shannon proposed the idea of predicting the next token (letter) using statistics/probabilities in the training data corpus in 1950: "Prediction and Entropy of Printed English" https://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/myl/Shannon1950.pdf

It goes back a bit further than that. His 1948 “Mathematical theory of communication” [1] already has (what we would now call) a Markov chain language model, page 7 onwards. AFAIK, this was based on his classified WWII work so it was probably a few years older than that

[1] https://people.math.harvard.edu/~ctm/home/text/others/shanno...

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#145
post #89

> I think Claude Shannon’s spirit is probably proud to know that his name is now being associated with such advances. Hats off to Claude! I didn't realize Claude was named after Claude Shannon! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Shannon

It's like the diesel engine, which is named after Rudolf Engine.

:|

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#146
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>AI could independently develop a cure for cancer All the answers for all your questions is contained in randomness. If you have a random sentence generator, there is a chance that it will output the answer to this question every time it is invoked. But that does not actually make it intelligent, does it?

This is exactly how problem solving works, regardless of the substrate of cognition. Start with "all your questions contained in randomness" -> the unconstrained solution space. The game is whether or not you can inject enough constraints to collapse the solution space to one that can be solved before your TTL expires. In software, that's generally handled by writing efficient algorithms. With LLMs, apparently the SO…

You can constrain the solution space all you want, but if you don't have a method to come up with possible solutions that might match the constraints, you ll be just sitting there all day long for the machine to produce some results. So intelligence is not "just knowing which constraints to apply". It is also the ability to come up with solutions within the constraints without going through a lot of trial and error...

But hey, if LLMs can go through a lot of trial and error, it might produce useful results, but that is not intelligence. It is just a highly constrained random solution generator..

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#147
post #7

Solves? It's a part of the training set. Nothing more, nothing less.

Opening sentences: > Shock! Shock! I learned yesterday that an open problem I’d been working on for several weeks had just been solved by Claude Opus 4.6— Anthropic’s hybrid reasoning model that had been released three weeks earlier! It seems that I’ll have to revise my opinions about “generative AI” one of these days. What a joy it is to learn not only that my conjecture has a nice solution but also to celebrate thi…

I think we're going to have several years of people claiming genAI "didn't really do something novel here," despite experts saying otherwise, because people are scared by the idea that complex problem solving isn't exclusive to humans (regardless of whether these models are approaching general intelligence).

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#148
Amazing paper. The simulated annealing portion reminds me of genetic algorithms (GAs). A good intro to that are the Genetic Programming series of books by John Koza, I read III in the early 2000s:

https://www.amazon.com/Genetic-Programming-III-Darwinian-Inv...

https://www.genetic-programming.com/

Note that the Python solution in the pdf is extremely short, so could have been found by simply trying permutations of math operators and functions on the right side of the equation.

We should be solving problems in Lisp instead of Python, but no matter. That's because Lisp's abstract syntax tree (AST) is the same as its code due to homoiconicity. I'm curious if most AIs transpile other languages to Lisp so that they can apply transformations internally, or if they waste computation building programs that might not compile. Maybe someone at an AI company knows.

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I've been following AI trends since the late 1980s and from my perspective, nothing really changed for about 40 years (most of my life that I had to wait through as the world messed around making other people rich). We had agents, expert system, fuzzy logic, neural nets, etc since forever, but then we got video cards in the late 1990s which made it straightforward to scale neural nets (NNs) and GAs. Unfortunately due to poor choice of architecture (SIMD instead of MIMD), progress stagnated because we don't have true multicore computing (thousands or millions of cores with local memories), but I digress.

Anyway, people have compared AI to compression. I think of it more as turning problem solving into a O(1) operation. Over time, what we think of as complex problems become simpler. And the rate that we're solving them is increasing exponentially. Problems that once seemed intractable only were because we didn't know the appropriate abstractions yet. For example, illnesses that we thought would never be cured now have vaccines through mRNA vaccines and CRISPR. That's how I think of programming. Now that we have LLMs, whole classes of programming problems now have O(1) solutions. Even if that's just telling the computer what problem to solve.

So even theorem proving will become a solved problem by the time we reach the Singularity between 2030 and 2040. We once mocked GAs for exploring dead ends and taking 1000 times the processing power to do simple things. But we ignored that doing hard things is often worth it, and is still a O(1) operation due to linear scaling.

It's a weird feeling to go from no forward progress in a field to it being effectively a solved problem in just 2 years. To go from trying to win the internet lottery to not being sure if people will still be buying software in a year or two if/when I finish a project. To witness all of that while struggling to make rent, in effect making everything I have ever done a waste of time since I knew better ways of doing it but was forced to drop down to whatever mediocre language or framework paid. As the problems I was trained to solve and was once paid to solve rapidly diminish in value because AI can solve them in 5 minutes. To the point that even inventing AGI would be unsurprising to most, so I don't know why I ever went into computer engineering to do exactly that. Because for most people, it's already here. As I've said many times lately, I thought I had more time.

Although now that we're all out of time, I have an uncanny feeling of being alive again. I think tech stole something from my psyche so profound that I didn't notice its loss. It's along the lines of things like boredom, daydreaming, wasting time. What modern culture considers frivolous. But as we lose every last vestige of the practical, as money becomes harder and harder to acquire through labor, maybe we'll pass a tipping point where the arts and humanities become sought-after again. How ironic would it be if the artificial made room for the real to return?

On that note, I read a book finally. Hail Mary by Andy Weir. The last book I read was Ready Player One by Ernest Cline, over a decade ago. I don't know how I would have had the bandwidth to do that if Claude hadn't made me a middle manager of AIs.

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#149

> Filip also told me that he asked Claude to continue on the even case after the odd case had been resolved. “But there after a while it seemed to get stuck. In the end, it was not even able to write and run explore programs correctly anymore, very weird. So I stopped the search.” Interesting snippet towards the end. I wonder if they were using claude.ai or claude code. Sounds like they ran out of context and entered…

Then it needs to do context compacting, otherwise the results become garbage

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#150
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly how problem solving works, regardless of the substrate of cognition. Start with "all your questions contained in randomness" -> the unconstrained solution space. The game is whether or not you can inject enough constraints to collapse the solution space to one that can be solved before your TTL expires. In software, that's generally handled by writing efficient algorithms. With LLMs, apparently the SO…

You can constrain the solution space all you want, but if you don't have a method to come up with possible solutions that might match the constraints, you ll be just sitting there all day long for the machine to produce some results. So intelligence is not "just knowing which constraints to apply". It is also the ability to come up with solutions within the constraints without going through a lot of trial and error..…

I believe that's I and the paper are both saying as well. The LLM is pure routing, the constraints currently are located elsewhere in the system. In this case, both the constraints and the motivation to perform the work are located in Knuth and his assistant.

Routing is important, it's why we keep building systems that do it faster and over more degrees of freedom. LLMs aren't intelligent on their own, but it's not because they don't have enough parameters

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