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What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

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Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#141
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I emphasized the career status of the people I'm describing here precisely because it's important to acknowledge how different perspectives are affected by privilege in this kind of conversation.

So what's the aggregate perspective of the 99%? You've described the 1% well, but that's only... well to be honest it is probably quite a bit less than 1% of all humans. Any thoughts? What do you think the average work-a-day Joe thinks about all this?

I'd love to know that. Anecdotally plenty of regular people love it and plenty more hate it.

Have you seen a study on this that you find credible?

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#142
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I emphasized the career status of the people I'm describing here precisely because it's important to acknowledge how different perspectives are affected by privilege in this kind of conversation.

In practice this sounds exactly like when organizations go "we are located on the traditional land of X people" and then do absolutely nothing about, say, the X people who are still around and living in poverty. It feels like something you acknowledge to alleviate your own sense of guilt. Not something others would find useful.

I honestly don't feel particularly guilty here. I'm trying to help other people find beneficial ways to use this stuff, I feel good about doing that.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#143
Serious answer to the base question: learn as much as you can about how it all works, learn how to use it in its current state, keep up as it changes, be prepared for sudden leaps in the technology. Do not underestimate it.

Yes, there is a lot of hype, wailing, gnashing of teeth, but if it is good enough to be a worry, it is also good enough to empower the individual to survive it.

Ultimately, if it is all hype, it will soon crumble; if it is not then productivity will increase by leaps and bounds. The only key issue is to make sure that all the gains aren't taken by a small group of people (whether the current rich and powerful, or those that displace them using new paradigms).

I suggest getting comfortable with the idea of a UBI.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#144
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what's the aggregate perspective of the 99%? You've described the 1% well, but that's only... well to be honest it is probably quite a bit less than 1% of all humans. Any thoughts? What do you think the average work-a-day Joe thinks about all this?

I'd love to know that. Anecdotally plenty of regular people love it and plenty more hate it. Have you seen a study on this that you find credible?

This seems like a very credible, thorough, and telling survey from Pew on what average people think about AI: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2025/04/03/how-the-us-p...

Key findings (to me):

- Way more people think AI will have a negative effect on the US over the next 20 years than think it will have a positive effect (35% vs 17%)

- Even more people think increased usage of AI will personally harm them than benefit them (43% vs 24%)

- Women and men have a huge gap on this: 53% of men say increased use of AI makes them feel more excited than concerned, versus 30% of women (probably due to deepfakes, but also likely due to women being more likely to be progressive, and the big anti-AI memes going around progressive spaces).

- 64% of people think AI will net eliminate jobs over the next 20 years versus just 14% that think it will even just not make much of a difference

It's also worth noting that AI experts were wildly out of touch with those attitudes compared to the general population.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#145
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people I know who are having the most fun with this stuff do tend to have had engineering management or other people managing experience in the past. It's a great deal easier than managing people! Agents don't have ambitions and fears and opinions and egos to take into account.

Doesn't this imply a quite insular, and somewhat anti human (if you allow me to be a bit flowery) future? I get other people can be annoying but that's part of us as a species. All of us now just working in our little silo with all our llm tools doesn't seem like a lot of fun long term

Sounds like great fun to me

— resident admitted anti-human

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#146
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I categorize "nobody has a job any more" as part of the AGI conversation, especially since one of the more common AGI definitions floating around is OpenAI's "highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work" from https://openai.com/charter/ So I don't buy your "sleight of hand" criticism here. If you ignore the fact that I used the acronym AGI what did you think of my response?

If I ignore the AGI parts, there's only: >Everything is awful for almost everyone. I expect even the ultra wealthy will find their lives significantly less pleasant than they were before. >We're three years into the ChatGPT revolution now and so far the main observable impact on the craft that I care about is that I can build more ambitious things. I think you refuse to extrapolate the obvious consequences and have f…

> ...the wolves of white collar job automation are closing in for the middle class. You believe that we'll all become cyborg centaurs, while the managers believe we'll all become redundant.

I think he doesn't think it's possible to actually make white collar workers redundant because we don't have AGI, since AGI is precisely defined as that — continually deferred, likely impossible for current technology — end goal that we know we haven't achieved yet.

And FWIW, I think he's right. The fact that LLMs are inherently stochastic, cannot reason or plan sufficiently by themselves, and do not have a world model, means that you will always need humans in the loop not just to oversee, verify, and act as an accountability sink (which by itself could be pretty bad), but also to break problems down, plan, and architecture for them, and, when possible, design automated verifiability systems so that the LLM can act as the core of a cybernetic feedback loop, like a sort of linear genetic programming algorithm (which is what a Ralph loop does, incidentally). This last especially, this act of figuring out how to, either by hand or in a very tight supervised loop with an LLM that relies heavily on human expertise and judgement, specify the desired behaviors in a machine-verifiable way, looks a lot like just a higher level of programming to me. It's just red-green BDD.

> . You think people will care about the sideslop everyone will build, not seeing that 'everyone will build' means 'no one will care'. Worse, means no one will buy (knowledge| skill|creation).

I think this is again assuming AGI, where AI slop sort of reaches and becomes indistinguishable from the designs of people with good taste, architectural knowledge, experience, and care for the craft of actually making good, reliable things — but we're not there yet, and as I said above, I don't know that we'd ever get there. So yes, everyone will be able to make things, but not all of it will be of the same quality even if they're all using AI to do it! See, for example, the kind of thing you get if you put an agent in a Ralph loop to make a terminal emulator, versus what Mitchell Hashimoto is able to do using AI on GhostTTY.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I ignore the AGI parts, there's only: >Everything is awful for almost everyone. I expect even the ultra wealthy will find their lives significantly less pleasant than they were before. >We're three years into the ChatGPT revolution now and so far the main observable impact on the craft that I care about is that I can build more ambitious things. I think you refuse to extrapolate the obvious consequences and have f…

> ...the wolves of white collar job automation are closing in for the middle class. You believe that we'll all become cyborg centaurs, while the managers believe we'll all become redundant. I think he doesn't think it's possible to actually make white collar workers redundant because we don't have AGI, since AGI is precisely defined as that — continually deferred, likely impossible for current technology — end goal t…

You are missing my point.

It's not what you believe, it's not a question of AGI, it's what the managers and investors think will happen. It's about headcount and it's about the average dev. Sure, now you have one smart guy in the loop and 99 guys not affording their rents anymore.

You ignore the impact "anyone can do it" in the mind of a manager/CEO. It demotes the specialist dev to generic labourer, it devalues their worth.

Tech people need to develop a theory of mind and understand other people have very different views of reality and so make very different plans for the future. It doesn't matter you and Simon think AGI is not happening, it doesn't matter you both think there must always be a meatbag in the loop, what matters is what the managerial class and the guys with capital _think_ it's happening.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ...the wolves of white collar job automation are closing in for the middle class. You believe that we'll all become cyborg centaurs, while the managers believe we'll all become redundant. I think he doesn't think it's possible to actually make white collar workers redundant because we don't have AGI, since AGI is precisely defined as that — continually deferred, likely impossible for current technology — end goal t…

You are missing my point. It's not what you believe, it's not a question of AGI, it's what the managers and investors think will happen. It's about headcount and it's about the average dev. Sure, now you have one smart guy in the loop and 99 guys not affording their rents anymore. You ignore the impact "anyone can do it" in the mind of a manager/CEO. It demotes the specialist dev to generic labourer, it devalues thei…

I know bosses can think that AGI is happening and they can get away with firing workers, but we've already seen a bunch of high profile cases of companies really rapidly learning their lesson and re-hiring people after firing them because of AI. The turnaround time is like, what, a few months? I'm not worried about it because of that — because they learn their lesson really quickly because they get slapped by reality. Because the thing is, if they try firing people and throwing a bunch of generic workers into the loop or even not even having humans in the loop at all, they extremely quickly run into problems because this isn't like an infrastructure thing where if you underinvest in it, it takes a while for the cracks to show. The hallucinations and nonsense show up immediately.

I also think that as soon as this AI bubble collapses because these companies don't see the insane returns they bet on from AGI in order to justify all of the money they've borrowed and the VC money they've burned, all illusions that AGI will happen even among the managerial class will go up and smoke and in fact investing in AI might become pretty toxic for a while. We've seen it with other bubbles. It's all animal spirits. Right now they're really enthusiastic, but that will go away and actually reverse irrespective of the relative quality of the technology.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#149
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd love to know that. Anecdotally plenty of regular people love it and plenty more hate it. Have you seen a study on this that you find credible?

This seems like a very credible, thorough, and telling survey from Pew on what average people think about AI: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2025/04/03/how-the-us-p... Key findings (to me): - Way more people think AI will have a negative effect on the US over the next 20 years than think it will have a positive effect (35% vs 17%) - Even more people think increased usage of AI will personally harm them than ben…

Thanks, that study is really useful.

It does however suffer from the (maybe insurmountable?) problem that "AI" is an extremely vague term with many potential interpretations.

I expect the "AI experts" in that study may have had a different definition in mind than the general public.

I remain much more skeptical about the impact of AI image/video/audio generation on society than I do LLMs, but LLMs themselves have such a wide array of potential uses that their impact will vary wildly depending on what they're being used for.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are missing my point. It's not what you believe, it's not a question of AGI, it's what the managers and investors think will happen. It's about headcount and it's about the average dev. Sure, now you have one smart guy in the loop and 99 guys not affording their rents anymore. You ignore the impact "anyone can do it" in the mind of a manager/CEO. It demotes the specialist dev to generic labourer, it devalues thei…

I know bosses can think that AGI is happening and they can get away with firing workers, but we've already seen a bunch of high profile cases of companies really rapidly learning their lesson and re-hiring people after firing them because of AI. The turnaround time is like, what, a few months? I'm not worried about it because of that — because they learn their lesson really quickly because they get slapped by reality…

Fair enough, if the LLMs critically underperform that would slow down their adoption. Maybe. Not immediately, they (the managerial class) will try everything before they abandon LLM.

I agree, the bubble collapsing would be the best scenario. That being said, the economic woes following the collapse will make things real bad for a time.

But what if the AI actually gets better? and there's no bubble collapse and there are no AI abandon? ...

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