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Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

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Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#141

Post by testaccount28 »

rfv6723 wrote: post #136
testaccount28 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes, they allow you to pay people who have information about the future for that information, in a distributed manner. this is great if, like many people, you want information about the future.

Historical records, notably by Herodotus, confirm that the Persian Empire used gold to bribe Greek Oracles, turning "divine prophecy" into a psychological warfare tool. This mirrors a core flaw in Polymarket: profit maximization is not truth-seeking. Just as Persian bribes manipulated ancient morale, modern "whales" can distort market odds to manufacture narratives or hedge external interests. In both cases, the pred…

and newspapers are owned by fatcats. but we are still interested in what they have to say.

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#142

Post by rfv6723 »

testaccount28 wrote: post #141
rfv6723 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historical records, notably by Herodotus, confirm that the Persian Empire used gold to bribe Greek Oracles, turning "divine prophecy" into a psychological warfare tool. This mirrors a core flaw in Polymarket: profit maximization is not truth-seeking. Just as Persian bribes manipulated ancient morale, modern "whales" can distort market odds to manufacture narratives or hedge external interests. In both cases, the pred…

and newspapers are owned by fatcats. but we are still interested in what they have to say.

This comparison is flawed because accountability creates a structural divide. A newspaper has a visible masthead and named editors, creating a reputational stake where consistent bias leads to institutional ruin.

In contrast, Polymarket relies on pseudonymous liquidity. A "whale" can use a "Persian bribe" to distort odds and then vanish without consequence. While a newspaper offers a testable argument, Polymarket provides a "math-washed" price signal that allows financial manipulation to masquerade as objective probability.

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#143

Post by ttul »

nubg wrote: post #102
ttul wrote: post #91

Trading on non-public information in prediction markets is illegal (in the United States) if the information was obtained through fraud, deception, a breach of trust—such as compromising a position of privilege—or from a confidential government source. For example, if you work at Google and know that Gemini 3 will be released on a certain date, trading on that insight is illegal because you are legally misappropriati…

Lmao, this user is an AI bot, as he admits in his bio. Frankly, the many ellipses gave it away, too. Edit: He removed the passage.

Which user is an AI bot?

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#144

Post by ttul »

ttul wrote: post #143
nubg wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lmao, this user is an AI bot, as he admits in his bio. Frankly, the many ellipses gave it away, too. Edit: He removed the passage.

Which user is an AI bot?

(I am not a bot, but I definitely use LLMs to help me conduct research and write well-informed comments here)

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#145

Post by casey2 »

yunohn wrote: post #90

> it's clear prediction markets like Polymarket incentivize sharing information I severely dislike these euphemisms used by prediction market enthusiasts. What exactly is the value of information like “most searched person on Google in year N”? Creating 10s of options to answer this question via gambling on Polymarket/Kalshi does not help anyone except their fellow degenerates. Heck, even events like “by N date the U…

Value? The market itself values having Google insiders ("Wow I can now ask questions about Googles' internal affairs") and Google values knowledge of leaks.

Aside from those tertiary effects, perhaps people would pay Google to know this information ahead of time but previously lacked the coordination to make a deal directly.

I'm sure people with business (plans) in country X question your sanity too. Markets create value, not postitve force. Only people can do that.

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#147

Post by a2128 »

chii wrote: post #69
0x3f wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I'm an insider with 100% confidence, I'll take all offers at a certain price as long as I can afford it. Similar story for lower levels of confidence (but still inside info). There won't necessarily be any left for you to copy at a viable price.

> Similar story for lower levels of confidence therefore, the polymarket betting odds will reflect the truth - even if that info is a secret that nobody else but the insider knows. And if this is the case, then even an outsider could make use of the odds as a source of info which would ensure that market efficiency (which is about the flow of information) is high. So what's wrong with insider trading again?

If you believe Polymarket as a serious source of truth, consider that somebody manipulated "Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?" because there was a secondary market on whether that market will rise above 5%. Which defeats the whole idea that the betting odds will reflect the truth. Also even pre-manipulation I don't think a 2% chance that Jesus will return was reflective of truth.

https://gizmodo.com/checking-in-on-polymarket-bets-on-christ...

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#148

Post by a2128 »

0x3f wrote: post #124
mminer237 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It rewards blatant corruption? What's the benefit is the bigger question.

The benefit is that inside information becomes public information. The reward for the insider is just the necessary incentive for that to happen.

Has there ever been any documented circumstance where significant inside information became public and known thanks to a trade? Most often, the trade is made at the last minute, and the information gets subsequently revealed anyway. And it's impossible to tell whether somebody is an inside trader, a wealthy gambling addict making a stupid decision, or hypothetically a foreign agent pretending to be an inside trader to make people believe in a particular outcome.

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#149

Post by DennisP »

skybrian wrote: post #121
DennisP wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good points, but commodity futures and stock prices take into account all sorts of information. They go haywire sometimes but given how hard it is to beat the market, they seem to do a pretty good job of aggregating it all.

As we learn from reading Matt Levine, they might also be taking into account signals that are irrelevant to you for technical reasons, or just nonsense. Often it works well but sometimes you get meme stocks.

Which is why I said "they go haywire sometimes." But in most cases, they work well enough that very few professional investors are able to consistently beat the judgement of the market.

Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI

#150

Post by JKCalhoun »

DennisP wrote: post #114
JKCalhoun wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmmm... crypto is bad for the planet though.

If you're talking about crypto mining, all of the big smart contract platforms that can run something like Polymarket are running on proof of stake. Their energy usage is comparable to any other internet protocol with a similar amount of traffic.

Thanks. Proof of work, now proof of stake—I clearly don't keep up with crypto mining.
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