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Why I don't think AGI is imminent

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Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#141

Post by myegorov »

znnajdla wrote: post #131
hi_hi wrote: post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

I've been writing code for 20 years. AI has completely changed my life and the way I write code and run my business. Nothing is the same anymore, and I feel I will be saying that again by the end of 2026. My productive output as a programmer in software and business have expanded 3x *compounding monthly*.

>My productive output as a programmer in software and business have expanded 3x compounding monthly.

In what units?

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#142

Post by senectus1 »

charcircuit wrote: post #120

We've already achieved AGI. Next is building AIs that are not just general, but able to equal or be better than humans.

if thats how you are defining AGI then I suspect its better to call it AGS.

because what we have at the moment is specifically intelligent but generally stupid.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#143

Post by ryanSrich »

tayo42 wrote: post #110
ryanSrich wrote: post #5

AGI is here. 90%+ of white collar work _can_ be done by an LLM. We are simply missing a tested orchestration layer. Speaking broadly about knowledge work here, there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6. Especially if you're a typical office worker whose job is done primarily on a computer, if that's all AGI is, then yeah, it's here.

Can llms manipulate spread sheets?

Yes. https://x.com/claudeai/status/2014834616889475508?s=46

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#144

Post by waterTanuki »

znnajdla wrote: post #131
hi_hi wrote: post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

I've been writing code for 20 years. AI has completely changed my life and the way I write code and run my business. Nothing is the same anymore, and I feel I will be saying that again by the end of 2026. My productive output as a programmer in software and business have expanded 3x *compounding monthly*.

Are you working for 3x less the time compounding monthly?

Are you making 3x the money compounding monthly ?

No?

Then what's the point?

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#145

Post by pennomi »

UncleMeat wrote: post #136
znnajdla wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been writing code for 20 years. AI has completely changed my life and the way I write code and run my business. Nothing is the same anymore, and I feel I will be saying that again by the end of 2026. My productive output as a programmer in software and business have expanded 3x *compounding monthly*.

Okay. So software engineers are vastly more efficient. Good I guess. "Revolutionize the entire world such that we rethink society down to its very basics like money and ownership" doesn't follow from that.

Man you guys are impatient. It takes decades even for earth shattering technologies to mature and take root.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#146

Post by igor47 »

anonymid wrote: post #80
NiloCK wrote: post #61

> The transformer architectures powering current LLMs are strictly feed-forward. This is true in a specific contextual sense (each token that an LLM produces is from a feed-forward pass). But untrue for more than a year with reasoning models, who feed their produced tokens back as inputs, and whose tuning effectively rewards it for doing this skillfully. Heck, it was untrue before that as well, any time an LLM respon…

Thanks for reading, and I really appreciate your comments! > who feed their produced tokens back as inputs, and whose tuning effectively rewards it for doing this skillfully Ah, this is a great point, and not something that I considered. I agree that the token feedback does change the complexity, and it seems that there's even a paper by the same authors about this very thing! https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.07923 I'll ha…

This whole conversation is pretty much over my head, but I just wanted to give you props for the way you're engaging with challenges to your ideas!

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#147

Post by rdfc-xn-uuid »

pixl97 wrote: post #47
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, but "what we need" is not the question. If the definition of AGI is "as smart as the average human in all areas", then it doesn't matter if the average human is pretty useless at a lot of tasks, that's still the definition of AGI. But I'd like to think that, even though you could find exceptions, the average human is never confused about whether dogs can lay eggs or not.

I reached your view the day my grandma told me I was wrong and a hummingbird was a type of insect... Like, it's in the name.

But javascript is not java. can we blame your grandma?

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#148

Post by igor47 »

charcircuit wrote: post #134
greedo wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem becomes your retirement. Sure, you've earned "expert" status, but all the junior developers won't be hired, so they'll never learn from junior mistakes. They'll blindly trust agents and not know deeper techniques.

You can get experience without an actual job.

Can I rephrase this as "you can get experience without any experience"? Certainly, there's stuff you can learn that's adjacent to doing the thing; that's what happens when juniors graduate with CS degrees. But the lack of doing the thing is what makes them juniors.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#149

Post by Traubenfuchs »

randallsquared wrote: post #119

> Consider the sentence "Mary held a ball." It's weird that this sentence has two distinct meanings and the author never considers the second or points it out. Maybe Mary is holding a ball for her society friends.

The first meaning has at least two variants as well: The ball you thought about and the ball it would be if it was smut fiction.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#150

Post by Lerc »

greedo wrote: post #88
Lerc wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Um, what? Are you interpreting scaling to mean adding parameters and nothing else? I'm not entirely sure where you get your confidence that we've past the ideal model size from, but at least that's a clear prediction so you should be able to tell if and when you are proven wrong. Just for the record, do you care to put an actual number on something we won't go past? [edit] Vibe check on user comes out as Contrarian 4…

How are you calculating that? Also, my 1000 foot view would see that "rating" as something most HN commenters would match.

It's comparatively few really

for instance yours comes out as

Analytical 45%, Cynical 30%, Pedantic 15%, Melancholic 10%

and mine is

Philosophical 35%, Hardware-Obsessed 25%, Analytically Pedantic 20%, Retro-Nostalgic 15%, Anti-Ad Skeptic 5%

You should consider gathering all of your analysis and pedantry into one easy to manage neurosis.

It's from https://hn-wrapped.kadoa.com

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